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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
All 6 Maryland House Democrats Reps. Ruppersberger, Sarbanes, Majority Leader Hoyer, Trone, Mfume and Raskin won their primaries tonight per AP. Harris, the only Republican in the MD Congressional delegation, ran unopposed.
2nd term #MD06 Rep David Trone won his Democratic primary & will face GOP primary winner MD state delegate Neil Parrott per AP in the fall election.Trone defeated Parrott 58.9%-39.2% in 2020 prior to redistricting.District now includes all of Frederick Co & less of Montgomery Co.
Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, first elected to the House in 1981, won his #MD05 Democratic primary tonight and will face GOP primary winner Chris Palombi per AP for a second time in the general election. Hoyer defeated Palombi 68.9%-31.1% in 2020.
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
New: Maryland Dems unveil four draft congressional maps, including two that would essentially leave Rep. Andy Harris (R) safe and two weak gerrymanders that could still give him a path to reelection. marylandmatters.org/2021/11/09/leg…
The most aggressive draft (#2) would flip Harris’s #MD01 from Trump +20 to Biden +10 - about as blue as Virginia. That’s pretty surprising, considering MD Dems could easily make it Biden +15 or more and have shown little restraint gerrymandering the state in the past.
Sorry, draft #3, not #2.
MARYLAND: there are creative maps, and then there's this work of art, which Dems passed in 2011 to seize a 7D-1R majority. But this time, they're poised go even further, by taking a sledgehammer to Rep. Andy Harris (R)'s #MD01 for an 8D-0R shutout.
In the example below, Harris's #MD01 would go from Trump +20 to Biden +15 (a 35 point swing!), by losing heavily R parts of Cecil/Harford/Carroll counties and picking up Annapolis, Columbia and Laurel. All seven other districts are still Biden +20 or more.
Remarkably, as the above hypothetical shows, Dems could simultaneously make MD Rs extinct at the federal level *and* draw a much cleaner map than the current one. And, they only need 3/5 support in the legislature to override Gov. Larry Hogan (R)'s veto.
#GOPComplicit incumbents represent their donors over constituents.
🇺🇸All states have a moment
🔴All #GOPTraitors have a thread
💵Top donors tagged to rep(s)
📰Negative news in each thread
🔎from:batmanresist ST## / STSEN
Hold them accountable for their actions.
#VoteThemOut
🇺🇸All states have a moment
🔴All #GOPTraitors have a thread
💵Top donors tagged to rep(s)
📰Negative news in each thread
🔎from:batmanresist ST## / STSEN
Hold them accountable for their actions.
#VoteThemOut
HEY #MARYLAND!
Here’s a THREAD with Links of ALL your Democratic Candidates AND
Voter Info Links!
Check Registration Status & ask for copy of voter registration card here:
voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/VoterSearch
#MD01 #MD02 #MD03 #MD04 #MD05 #MD06 #MD07 #MD08
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
#VoteBlue2018
Here’s a THREAD with Links of ALL your Democratic Candidates AND
Voter Info Links!
Check Registration Status & ask for copy of voter registration card here:
voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/VoterSearch
#MD01 #MD02 #MD03 #MD04 #MD05 #MD06 #MD07 #MD08
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
#VoteBlue2018
VOTER REGISTRATON #Maryland
Online: voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/OnlineVoterReg…
Check Registration Status & ask for copy of your voter registration card
voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/VoterSearch
Find your Polling Place and your local board of elections: voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/PollingPlaceSe…
Overseas? voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/OnlineVoterReg…
Online: voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/OnlineVoterReg…
Check Registration Status & ask for copy of your voter registration card
voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/VoterSearch
Find your Polling Place and your local board of elections: voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/PollingPlaceSe…
Overseas? voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/OnlineVoterReg…
Democratic Candidate for Congress #Maryland #MD01 #MD1
Jesse Colvin
jessecolvin.com
@Colvin4Congress
vs GOP Incumbent Andy Harris
Vote NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Jesse Colvin
jessecolvin.com
@Colvin4Congress
vs GOP Incumbent Andy Harris
Vote NOVEMBER 6, 2018
HEY #MARYLAND!
#PrimaryElection is JUNE 26, 2018!
Here’s a THREAD with Links of ALL your Democratic Candidates
AND Voter Info Links!
Check Registration Status & ask for copy of voter registration card here:
voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/VoterSearch
#MD01 #MD02 #MD03 #MD04 #MD05 #MD06 #MD07 #MD08
#PrimaryElection is JUNE 26, 2018!
Here’s a THREAD with Links of ALL your Democratic Candidates
AND Voter Info Links!
Check Registration Status & ask for copy of voter registration card here:
voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/VoterSearch
#MD01 #MD02 #MD03 #MD04 #MD05 #MD06 #MD07 #MD08
VOTER REGISTRATON #Maryland
Online: voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/OnlineVoterReg…
Check Registration Status & ask for copy of your voter registration card
voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/VoterSearch
Find your Polling Place and your local board of elections: voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/PollingPlaceSe…
Overseas? voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/OnlineVoterReg…
Online: voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/OnlineVoterReg…
Check Registration Status & ask for copy of your voter registration card
voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/VoterSearch
Find your Polling Place and your local board of elections: voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/PollingPlaceSe…
Overseas? voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/OnlineVoterReg…
EARLY VOTING in #Maryland
Early Voting for the June 26th #PrimaryElection
is JUNE 14 to JUNE 21
Any person that is eligible to register to vote can vote early.
You can vote in an early voting center in the county where you live.
Find centers here: elections.maryland.gov/voting/documen…
Early Voting for the June 26th #PrimaryElection
is JUNE 14 to JUNE 21
Any person that is eligible to register to vote can vote early.
You can vote in an early voting center in the county where you live.
Find centers here: elections.maryland.gov/voting/documen…
