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There are 18 Republican House Members representing Districts which Biden won in 2020:
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67.
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
Every state has critical races on the ballot — & some are facing a perfect storm where so much is on the line at once.
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
1️⃣ I have to start with Michigan
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
2️⃣ Arizona:
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs.
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Speaker's election underway. Conducted aloud on House floor, alphabetically by member-elect surname.
Winner needs majority of members-elect voting for a candidate by surname. Can win with fewer than 218.
Pelosi, McCarthy formally nominated, but members-elect can vote for anyone
Winner needs majority of members-elect voting for a candidate by surname. Can win with fewer than 218.
Pelosi, McCarthy formally nominated, but members-elect can vote for anyone
Blue Dog Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) voted for Pelosi for speaker for the 1st time since 2009.
Cooper voted "present" in 2019 and for Tim Ryan in 2017, Colin Powell in both 2015 elections and in 2013, and Heath Shuler in 2011. #tn05
Cooper voted "present" in 2019 and for Tim Ryan in 2017, Colin Powell in both 2015 elections and in 2013, and Heath Shuler in 2011. #tn05
Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO), who voted for Tammy Duckworth for speaker as a freshman in 2019, voted for Pelosi after an easy re-election win in #co06
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
Every state had big stakes on the ballot. I previewed them before Nov. 3 — and now we know enough to revisit it all.
Here's a new thread on each & every state, and DC & Puerto Rico too. Idea is to encapsulate as much of what went down as I can within 280 characters. Let's go!
Here's a new thread on each & every state, and DC & Puerto Rico too. Idea is to encapsulate as much of what went down as I can within 280 characters. Let's go!
As a first step: Here's the pre-election thread if you want to explore it.
Of course, most of the information here is available on my whatsontheballot.com/2020-general-e…!
And a series of December/January runoffs, of course, still loom large. The cycle is not over!
Of course, most of the information here is available on my whatsontheballot.com/2020-general-e…!
And a series of December/January runoffs, of course, still loom large. The cycle is not over!
1️⃣ Oregon:
—became the first state to decriminalize drug possession
—legalized psilocybin
—Dems flipped the Secretary of State office
—Portland/Mulntomah adopted preschool for all
—Portland's mayor beat left challenge
—Rep. DeFazio re-elected in tighter than usual race
—became the first state to decriminalize drug possession
—legalized psilocybin
—Dems flipped the Secretary of State office
—Portland/Mulntomah adopted preschool for all
—Portland's mayor beat left challenge
—Rep. DeFazio re-elected in tighter than usual race
Just in: Trump will be visiting Treworgy Family Orchards in Levant on trip to Maine today, per source familiar. #mepolitics
This is a popular regional family spot with large orchard and a corn maze.
It also saw a political controversy in 2012 when the family’s patriarch put up a sign opposing a same-sex marriage referendum that passed. bangordailynews.com/2012/10/26/new… #mepolitics
It also saw a political controversy in 2012 when the family’s patriarch put up a sign opposing a same-sex marriage referendum that passed. bangordailynews.com/2012/10/26/new… #mepolitics
Finally on the ground here in Levant. The place is mobbed with many more in line.
Sort of a county fair atmosphere with people packed in up front, most maskless. #mepolitics
Sort of a county fair atmosphere with people packed in up front, most maskless. #mepolitics
🗳🇺🇸Empieza la ofensiva de Biden en el distrito 2 de Maine (#ME02). Recordad que Maine reparte sus votos electorales dependiendo de quién gana a nivel estatal (2) y luego a nivel de distritos (1 + 1). Trump ganó el 2nd en 2016 por 10 puntos.
Mucho blanco sin estudios.
#PresiD3N
Mucho blanco sin estudios.
#PresiD3N
(Jajajaja. Fachitas enfadados porque pongo ‘mucho blanco sin estudios’ como si fuera un insulto o algo. Se ve que el problema lo tienen ellos).
Para que esta panda de fachitas sepan un poco de dónde viene esto. Los blancos sin estudios son el demográfico que más vota a Trump (img 1, encuestas pie de urna. 2016) y sobre todo en distritos como el 2 de Maine (img 2).
Las encuestas lo marcan SIEMPRE. Es parte del análisis.
Las encuestas lo marcan SIEMPRE. Es parte del análisis.
Every state has big stakes on the ballot — it's just some are facing a perfect storm where so much that matters is competitive at once.
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can within 280 characters. (Let's do roughly one a day!)
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can within 280 characters. (Let's do roughly one a day!)
1️⃣ North Carolina really is it:
—Could decide WH
—Could decide U.S. Senate majority
—Ds may gain at least 2 House seats. More?
—Can Ds keep governorship (& veto power)?
—Can Ds pick-up a legislative chamber?
—3 Supreme Court seats!👀
—AG, LG (if Gov vacancy...), SoS competitive
—Could decide WH
—Could decide U.S. Senate majority
—Ds may gain at least 2 House seats. More?
—Can Ds keep governorship (& veto power)?
—Can Ds pick-up a legislative chamber?
—3 Supreme Court seats!👀
—AG, LG (if Gov vacancy...), SoS competitive
2️⃣ Montana is up there too:
—Could decide Senate majority!
—Open Gov race. Would be GOP's first win since 2000, likely give them trifecta. And it's Gianforte on the ballot.
—Open SoS & AG races
—An open, tight House race
—An intriguing Supreme Court race
—Gun control referendum
—Could decide Senate majority!
—Open Gov race. Would be GOP's first win since 2000, likely give them trifecta. And it's Gianforte on the ballot.
—Open SoS & AG races
—An open, tight House race
—An intriguing Supreme Court race
—Gun control referendum
More NYT/Siena polls out today:
AZ: Biden +9
ME: Biden +17
ME02: Biden +2
NC: Biden +1
AZ is the big number for Biden. The ME02 is Trump's best. Keeps things pretty steady in our model though:
electoralpolls.com
Biden's at a 90% chance to win.
AZ: Biden +9
ME: Biden +17
ME02: Biden +2
NC: Biden +1
AZ is the big number for Biden. The ME02 is Trump's best. Keeps things pretty steady in our model though:
electoralpolls.com
Biden's at a 90% chance to win.
#Arizona is the one swing state where Biden's been consistently improving his position (thanks in no small part to Kelly's solid senate campaign):
electoralpolls.com/arizona
He's now up to his best position ever with a 76% chance to win the state and +4.5% in the polls.
electoralpolls.com/arizona
He's now up to his best position ever with a 76% chance to win the state and +4.5% in the polls.
That #ME02 number really dampens the recent @QuinnipiacPoll Biden +9 and pulls his chances down a bit in the district:
electoralpolls.com/maine_cd-2
He's now at a 67% chance to win it and +4% in the polls.
It'll be a necessary electoral vote if Biden tries to pull off a non-PA win.
electoralpolls.com/maine_cd-2
He's now at a 67% chance to win it and +4% in the polls.
It'll be a necessary electoral vote if Biden tries to pull off a non-PA win.
🗳🇺🇸1. Nuevas encuestas de NYT/Siena desde varios estados bisagra. 538 valora esta encuestadora con [A+]. Presidenciales:
MAINE
• Biden: 55% (+17) ‼️
• Trump: 38%
ARIZONA
• Biden: 49% (+9)
• Trump: 40%
NORTH CAROLINA
• Biden: 45% (+1)
• Trump: 44%
#PresiD3N
MAINE
• Biden: 55% (+17) ‼️
• Trump: 38%
ARIZONA
• Biden: 49% (+9)
• Trump: 40%
NORTH CAROLINA
• Biden: 45% (+1)
• Trump: 44%
#PresiD3N
🗳🇺🇸2. Que NYT/Siena vea unas diferencias así en Arizona, pero sobre todo en Maine, donde hay tanta población blanca sin estudios (la base de Trump), significa que Trump tiene mucho que hacer y cada vez cuenta con menos tiempo.
🗳🇺🇸3. NYT/Siena tenía una muestra de +400 en el distrito #ME02 donde se concentran esos blancos sin estudios y la carrera congresional, una que se decidió por ranking de voto en 2018, te dice todo lo que necesitas saber sobre la región:
• Golden (D): 56%
• Crafts (R): 37%
• Golden (D): 56%
• Crafts (R): 37%
🗳🇺🇸Estos números del distrito 2 de Maine creo que no se habían visto hasta ahora. Serían muy malas noticias para Trump. Mucho blanco de clase trabajadora sin estudios universitarios (y mucho jubilado) en esas zonas rurales al norte de Maine.
🗳🇺🇸4. Wow. ¡Esos números no se ven muy a menudo!
🗳🇺🇸3. Estoy seguro de que hay más encuestadoras prestigiosas moviéndose por Maine ahora mismo. Dudo que encuentren cifras tan positivas para Biden en esas demos.
Pero es que aunque encontraran un empate entre Biden y Trump en #ME02... ¡eso sería malo para los republicanos!
Pero es que aunque encontraran un empate entre Biden y Trump en #ME02... ¡eso sería malo para los republicanos!
I got barred from a big GOP dinner in Lewiston, Maine tonight where @SenatorCollins was among the speakers, but I listened to her through the door because, well, I'm like that.
I even got a fuzzy pic of her through a crack. #mepolitics
sunjournal.com/2020/02/22/sus…
I even got a fuzzy pic of her through a crack. #mepolitics
sunjournal.com/2020/02/22/sus…
@SenatorCollins At least one of the other candidates has posted video of his comments in Lewiston. Here's #ME02 congressional hopeful @SenatorBrakey, who told me he'd have let me in, at the same dinner last night: facebook.com/ericbrakeyforc…
@SenatorCollins @SenatorBrakey Since I mentioned @SenatorCollins wanted to win Lewiston in her 2014 race (and succeeded), I should again add the disclaimer that my son @thekiernanmc is the chair of the Lewiston Democrats now & is active in trying to defeat her this year.
