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On sidelines and in society, they are discussing that a war may start in #Ukraine, and the #Fed will raise rates ahead of time. How will this end for the markets?
Spoiler alert: the Russian market could be halved. #MOEX
Thread 🧵👇
Spoiler alert: the Russian market could be halved. #MOEX
Thread 🧵👇
Judging by experience of falls of past years, Russian market may fall by another 30% -50% from current levels.
• 2008 #RTS index fell by 80%
• 2014 - by 50%
• 2020 - by 50%
Market has corrected by 22% from the local maximum - potential for a fall by 30% remains.
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• 2008 #RTS index fell by 80%
• 2014 - by 50%
• 2020 - by 50%
Market has corrected by 22% from the local maximum - potential for a fall by 30% remains.
2/
Growth of quotations this week is unlikely:
• Quadruple witching - expiration of futures and options can become a point of trend reversal (as it was in March 2020).
💵 Wednesday: Fed meeting. If #Fed announces acceleration of monetary tightening, it could collapse markets.
3/
• Quadruple witching - expiration of futures and options can become a point of trend reversal (as it was in March 2020).
💵 Wednesday: Fed meeting. If #Fed announces acceleration of monetary tightening, it could collapse markets.
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