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"Lockdowns only reduced mortality by 0.2%" claims (unreviewed) meta study, and it is getting much press in @FoxNews and the like.
A #metastudy aggregate the entire body of evidence. This one is based on 18,590 studies.
So, 0.2% must be a credible estimate... Well. No so fast. 🧵
A #metastudy aggregate the entire body of evidence. This one is based on 18,590 studies.
So, 0.2% must be a credible estimate... Well. No so fast. 🧵
A meta study often begins with a large set of studies (18,590) then eliminates irrelevant studies, duplicates, etc.
This meta study ends up with 34 papers.
Thus 0.2% is based on 34 studies, right? Well, actually not.
This meta study ends up with 34 papers.
Thus 0.2% is based on 34 studies, right? Well, actually not.
Somewhat oddly the number is not 34, but 24.
There are 34 studies listed in Table 2, but 10 of them are listed as excluded. Apparently based on some criterion that is missing in Figure 2.
OK. But 0.2% based on 24 studies still gives a precise estimate, right? Sadly no.
There are 34 studies listed in Table 2, but 10 of them are listed as excluded. Apparently based on some criterion that is missing in Figure 2.
OK. But 0.2% based on 24 studies still gives a precise estimate, right? Sadly no.
