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Results are in for #MiniSuperTuesday !
Michigan: Biden +16
Washington: Uncalled +0.2 Sanders
Missouri: Biden +25
Mississippi: Biden +67
Idaho: Biden +6
North Dakota: Uncalled +6 Sanders
So what does this mean going forward?
Lets break it down using the exit polls
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1/14
Michigan: Biden +16
Washington: Uncalled +0.2 Sanders
Missouri: Biden +25
Mississippi: Biden +67
Idaho: Biden +6
North Dakota: Uncalled +6 Sanders
So what does this mean going forward?
Lets break it down using the exit polls
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
1/14
1. The primary is pretty much over
It looks like Michigan might be the nail in the coffin for Sanders. In 2016 it was his return from the brink, this year it pushed him over the edge. But why is it that absolute?
Because primaries are not winner takes all. 2/
It looks like Michigan might be the nail in the coffin for Sanders. In 2016 it was his return from the brink, this year it pushed him over the edge. But why is it that absolute?
Because primaries are not winner takes all. 2/
Lets start by looking at how the primaries are run on the democratic side.
First and foremost, delegates are apportioned proportionally. This is different than the GOP. In 2016 Trump ran away with the nomination with some 40-45% of the vote in early states 3/
First and foremost, delegates are apportioned proportionally. This is different than the GOP. In 2016 Trump ran away with the nomination with some 40-45% of the vote in early states 3/
Joe Biden è a un soffio dalla nomination (thread): nella notte ha vinto 4 Stati su 6, cruciale la vittoria in #Michigan, che poteva essere la ciambella di salvataggio per Sanders. Si confermano le ragioni che hanno frenato Bernie: treccani.it/magazine/atlan… #MiniSuperTuesday
Biden vince ottiene un risultato schiacciante in #Mississippi con l'81%, in Missouri con il 60%. Il voto nero continua a premiare in maniera schiacciante l'ex VP (al massimo il 32%)/2 #MiniSuperTuesday
Nello Stato di Washington con il 70% dei voti contati, Sanders è in vantaggio di 0,2%, probabile ma non certa la sua vittoria. Qui c'era stato molto voto in anticipo: Warren è al 12%, Bloomberg all'11%./3 #MiniSuperTuesday
Amanhã, seis estados votam na #miniSuperTuesday, mas todas as minhas atenções estarão direcionadas a um: Michigan - o primeiro dos três estados responsáveis pela vitória do Trump em 2016 a realizar suas primárias.
Eu ainda me lembro do choque que foi quando o Bernie Sanders venceu a Hillary Clinton no Michigan em 2016, mesmo com a ex-sec de Estado liderando as pesquisas por mais de 20 pontos. Foi a minha maior supresa daquele ano, mais até que a vitória do Trump.
Há pouco, saiu essa pesquisa 👇🏾 mas o Michigan conseguiu me enganar duas vezes em 2016 (nas primárias e na eleição). Prefiro aguardar para de no que vai dar rs
Analysis #miniSuperTuesday primary 10th of March.
Tomorrow 6 states will be voting in the primary for 352 delegates.
Michigan (125)
Mississippi (36)
Missouri (68)
Washington (89)
Idaho (20)
North Dakota (14)
Lets break down who is strong where and why
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1/15
Tomorrow 6 states will be voting in the primary for 352 delegates.
Michigan (125)
Mississippi (36)
Missouri (68)
Washington (89)
Idaho (20)
North Dakota (14)
Lets break down who is strong where and why
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
1/15
I'm going to start by analyzing some general trends
1. Latino-Black divide
2. Age
3. Urban-Rural
1. Latino-Black
So as I have discussed before Latino's tend to support Bernie and black voters tend to go Biden. There are some reasons for this, one is the low median 2/15
1. Latino-Black divide
2. Age
3. Urban-Rural
1. Latino-Black
So as I have discussed before Latino's tend to support Bernie and black voters tend to go Biden. There are some reasons for this, one is the low median 2/15
age among Latinos, the second is Pew research indicating that Latinos are typically in favor of a larger government with more services. Black voters lean socially conservative and are often quite religious.
2. Age
The younger you are the stronger Bernie is. Its really 3/15
2. Age
The younger you are the stronger Bernie is. Its really 3/15
