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#Monsoon2023 Onset Conditions slowly evolving at the background over S-SE Bay as Lower level wind flow seen getting back to normal after got disturbed last week by #CycloneMocha . Cross Eq Flow/ITCZ associated rains likely over Nicobar Islands from 18th May.
If we observe the above animation closely ,I have drawn a line for understanding the progression of Monsoon as we could see the cross Eq flow slowly establishing &extending NW gradually as days progress. This is how Bay branch monsoon progress into #srilanka (25/26th May)
Zonally oriented East-west shear line in the lower troposphere also seen appearing in the next 4-5 days extending from S.Arb sea into Andaman &Nicobar islands. This is also criterion considered for Monsoon arrival over Bay islands 
New paper from myself, Steve Woolnough, @CharltonPerez and Frederic Vitart published online today in #AGUpubs Geophysical Research Letters.
@AtmosScience @UniRdg_Met @ECMWF
#VotePlanet #MJO #ENSO #teleconnections #NAO
doi.org/10.1029/2019GL…
@AtmosScience @UniRdg_Met @ECMWF
#VotePlanet #MJO #ENSO #teleconnections #NAO
doi.org/10.1029/2019GL…
Summary:
Using a reanalysis to incorporate observations from the past 39 winters, we find a robust dependence of teleconnections from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) to the North Atlantic/European region weather regimes on the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Using a reanalysis to incorporate observations from the past 39 winters, we find a robust dependence of teleconnections from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) to the North Atlantic/European region weather regimes on the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
More details:
Our study provides the first evidence to support this: in the form of contingency tables, using the method and format from @cassouman40, Nature (2008); geopotential height composites, to show the flow pattern; and analysis of the physical mechanisms
Our study provides the first evidence to support this: in the form of contingency tables, using the method and format from @cassouman40, Nature (2008); geopotential height composites, to show the flow pattern; and analysis of the physical mechanisms
