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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
A quick look at how the race panned out in my neck of the woods: #HD37A.
This was an Obama->Trump district that swung back to Biden this time. There are some more blue-collar burbs here that were open to giving Trump a shot, but looked more like the rest of the burbs in 2020.
This was an Obama->Trump district that swung back to Biden this time. There are some more blue-collar burbs here that were open to giving Trump a shot, but looked more like the rest of the burbs in 2020.
In the race for #MNLeg in #HD37A, @ErinKoegel ran roughly even (actually a hair ahead of) the top of the ticket. She was reelected to a third term against Spring Lake Park City Councilman Ken Wendling. Some minimal realignment here from 2018.
In the race for #SD37, @SenJerryNewton was reelected by single digits. In the A portion of the district (which he used to represent in the House) he ran roughly even with Biden and Koegel. This was a rematch from 2016 against @sanford4mn.
Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin are holding Congressional primaries today and Georgia is holding primary runoff elections for several House seats.
In Connecticut, Democrats hold all 5 House seats and none are facing primary challengers. Republicans will challenge Democrats this fall in all 5 seats with 2 primaries in 1st and 2nd Districts held today. GOP winners will face Reps. Larson and Courtney respectively in November.
In Minnesota, #MNSen primary elections are being held today. 1st term Democratic Senator Tina Smith face four DFL primary challengers and 5 Republican candidates including former Rep. Jason Lewis who was endorsed by President Trump are running to be their party's nominee.
Hey #MINNESOTA
Here’s a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018!
with photos, Twitter & Websites.
& Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
Use wherever helpful.
#VoteBlueMN
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#MN01 #MN02 #MN03 #MN04 #MN05 #MN06 #MN07 #MN08
Here’s a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018!
with photos, Twitter & Websites.
& Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
Use wherever helpful.
#VoteBlueMN
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#MN01 #MN02 #MN03 #MN04 #MN05 #MN06 #MN07 #MN08
Voter Registration in Minnesota
Am I registered? mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterStatus.as…
If registering ONLINE by October 16 here:
mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterRegistrat…
Paper Application: sos.state.mn.us/elections-voti…
Re-register if you have:
Moved, Changed Name or not voted at least once in last 4 years.
#VoteBlue
Am I registered? mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterStatus.as…
If registering ONLINE by October 16 here:
mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterRegistrat…
Paper Application: sos.state.mn.us/elections-voti…
Re-register if you have:
Moved, Changed Name or not voted at least once in last 4 years.
#VoteBlue
Democratic Candidate #MN01 #MINNESOTA
Dan Feehan
danfeehan.com
@danielfeehan
vs GOP Jim Hagedorn
[Tim Walz (DFL Candidate for Governor in 2018. ]
VOTE NOVEMBER 6
#VoteBlueMN #Midterms2018
Dan Feehan
danfeehan.com
@danielfeehan
vs GOP Jim Hagedorn
[Tim Walz (DFL Candidate for Governor in 2018. ]
VOTE NOVEMBER 6
#VoteBlueMN #Midterms2018
Wow, #Minnesota!
You get to start #EarlyVoting this Friday for your AUGUST 14th #PrimaryElection!
Here's a THREAD of ALL your Democratic Candidates with photos & websites. Also Voter Info with links.
Check to see if you're registered here:
mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterStatus.as…
#VoteBlue
You get to start #EarlyVoting this Friday for your AUGUST 14th #PrimaryElection!
Here's a THREAD of ALL your Democratic Candidates with photos & websites. Also Voter Info with links.
Check to see if you're registered here:
mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterStatus.as…
#VoteBlue
Voter Registration in Minnesota
Am I registered? mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterStatus.as…
Register ONLINE here:
mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterRegistrat…
Paper Application here: sos.state.mn.us/elections-voti…
You need to re-register if you have:
Moved, Changed Name or Have not voted at least once in last 4 years.
Am I registered? mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterStatus.as…
Register ONLINE here:
mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/VoterRegistrat…
Paper Application here: sos.state.mn.us/elections-voti…
You need to re-register if you have:
Moved, Changed Name or Have not voted at least once in last 4 years.
Democratic Candidates #MN01 #MINNESOTA
[Tim Walz (DFL Candidate for Governor in 2018. ]
Dan Feehan
danfeehan.com
@danielfeehan
Colin Minehart
facebook.com/colin.minehart
4 GOP
VOTE AUGUST 14
#VoteBlue
[Tim Walz (DFL Candidate for Governor in 2018. ]
Dan Feehan
danfeehan.com
@danielfeehan
Colin Minehart
facebook.com/colin.minehart
4 GOP
VOTE AUGUST 14
#VoteBlue
