Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #modellingscandal

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1). Patrick Vallance tells the @CommonsSTC that SAGE advised the govt to impose lockdown measures “as soon as possible” “on the 18th or 16th of March, I can’t remember”

Remarkable that he doesn’t recall the date.

He fails to explain why the govt wait a week before locking down?
2). Professor @JeremyFarrar, who is a member of SAGE, does remember.

He has just clarified that on 13 March - with #COVID infections doubling every 2-3 days - SAGE decided a lockdown was needed.

They advised the govt of this on 16 March.

UK locked down on 23 March.
#COVID19
3/. On 10/6, @neil_ferguson who did the modelling presented on 16 March, said locking down a week earlier could have saved 20,000 lives.

Modeller, Prof Edmunds, told #Marr: “We should have gone into lockdown earlier…I think that has cost a lot of lives.”
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