Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #mt01

Most recents (7)

2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
GOP House math coming into focus:

206 seats are locked down.

R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.

That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
The easiest path to 4:

#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.

#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.

#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.

#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.
Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).

Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.
Read 3 tweets
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).

+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning

Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.

#Election2022 Image
Note especially: 3 (of 10 total) GOP "Toss up" seats have already been called for Democratic Victory.
#NC13 #OH01 #TX34.

On the Dem "Toss up" side, there's #VA02 which flipped Red. But that's it.
In summary, of currently held Dem seats, only 1 flipped Dem-> GOP (#VA02), with 6 races leaning GOP.

On the other hand, of current GOP seats, 4 have flipped GOP->Dem (#MT01, #NC13, #OH01, #TX34) and 7 lean Democrats.

I think the Democrats will win the US House. Image
Read 22 tweets
Listening to last night's #MT01 debate, and this "abortion up to the moment of birth" nonsense from @RyanZinke (and others) is just that -- nonsense. Why? 🧵

(TW miscarriage / pregnancy complications)
Facts: abortions after 21 weeks, which is about halfway through pregnancy, make up 0.7% of all abortions in Montana.

These are almost exclusively tragic medical situations that result in parents ending wanted pregnancies.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Why would someone have an abortion past 21 weeks?

Many times, it's because the detailed ultrasound called the "anatomy scan", which happens at 18 to 20 weeks, shows something terribly wrong. Something incompatible with life, like missing organs.
Read 12 tweets
Excited to speak to some Missoula voters at tonight’s forum! #mtpol

You can check it out on MCAT here: mcat.org/watch/local-li… Image
Also, this new Missoula Public Library still amazes me. We are all so lucky for this public space.
My parents’ activism on behalf of our community to ensure that everyone had a right to an abortion colored my path to public service. I will pick up that fight in Congress for Montana.
Read 18 tweets
Stopped by the place that full-time Californian Ryan Zinke is claiming as his residence so he can run for Congress in Montana...and it’s a hotel.

The king of the grift & most corrupt politician of my lifetime #mtpol #mtnews #mt01
How in the world does someone enter politics with $2 million net worth and leave it with $36 million?

Corruption of course. Zinke made almost $1 million alone this year in consulting fees to the oil, gas, and mining industries.
Hope you’re enjoying your tan over there in Santa Barbara, Ryan!

Us full-time Montanans really appreciate out of state millionaires trying to divide our communities and buy our political offices :) #mtpol
Read 9 tweets
MONTANA: is set to regain the 2nd district it lost in the 1990 census. Dems are hopeful they could be competitive in a new western district anchored by liberal Missoula & Bozeman - much like in the old, pre-1992 map (below, h/t thearp.org).
However, there's just one problem for Dems. Because so much of Montana's post-1992 growth has been in the west, Bozeman would now end up *east* of the line if the state were split east/west - splitting up Montana's two biggest Dem vote clusters, leaving both seats red (below).
In order for Dems to be remotely competitive in a new #MT01, it would likely need to include all of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, Helena and Great Falls (below) - and even then, such a seat would've narrowly voted for Trump.
Read 4 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!