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Many Western observers assuming that #Ukraine can & should exchange land for peace underestimate neo-Soviet utilitarianism. #Russian leaders engage in #aggressions because they generate victories that are popular with many #Russians. /1
@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @DGO_Berlin
Victories in #Moldova, #Chechnia, Georgia, #Crimea, Syria, and the Donbas did not satisfy Russia. They triggered appetite for more victories. If #Russia is provided with another victory, this will not bring peace but merely provide time to prepare for achieving more victories. /2
#Odesa, #Pavlodar, #Belarus, #Narva.... - you name it. Aggression works, both internationally and domestically. Obtained lands confirm the utility of aggression. Peace is necessary to prepare the next victory. Concessions feed aggressiveness & will not satisfy the appetite. /END
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