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Watch European natgas consumption explode for rest of December as we enter a persistent cold spell, especially in Central Europe...!
#TTF #NBP @OKalleklev
#TTF #NBP @OKalleklev
A preview below - Czech Republic
Slovakia already at record highs
🧐So… are high natural gas prices over in Europe? #TTF
🌞Warm weather in Europe along with the increment in #LNG imports have diminished the natural gas prices in Europe
⛵️70% of US LNG exports went to Europe in 3Q22 compared to 30% in 3Q21
🌞Warm weather in Europe along with the increment in #LNG imports have diminished the natural gas prices in Europe
⛵️70% of US LNG exports went to Europe in 3Q22 compared to 30% in 3Q21
🇪🇺natural gas inventories are at 95% capacity and Day Ahead prices have plunged ~90% from Aug
As a consequence, there are > 30 LNG carriers waiting to unload in Europe as it is more profitable for them to wait for colder temperatures ➡️ Day Ahead prices recover (Contango)
As a consequence, there are > 30 LNG carriers waiting to unload in Europe as it is more profitable for them to wait for colder temperatures ➡️ Day Ahead prices recover (Contango)
So..are high nat gas prices over?
Well, we as 🇪🇺 have been lucky of the 🌞we had in Oct. But, situation changes from now on as ❄️ arrives & the 95% capacity figure is a bit tricky
👉🏽It only covers 20% of yearly demand and is designed to receive nat gas from 🇷🇺 during winter
Well, we as 🇪🇺 have been lucky of the 🌞we had in Oct. But, situation changes from now on as ❄️ arrives & the 95% capacity figure is a bit tricky
👉🏽It only covers 20% of yearly demand and is designed to receive nat gas from 🇷🇺 during winter
How long will EU gas prices and with it EU power prices and likely the Euro, inflation expectations and European rates get a break?
Anwer: It (mainly) depends on weather. So what is the forecast?
1/n #TTF #NBP #EUR
Anwer: It (mainly) depends on weather. So what is the forecast?
1/n #TTF #NBP #EUR
The main consumers of gas is North West, Central & South East EU. We disregard Nordics which consumes little.
North West temps are currently 6% higher than its 30-y normal - a lot!
Temps are forecast to stay above normal into Dec. However, post 10 Nov only by 1.5%.
2/n
North West temps are currently 6% higher than its 30-y normal - a lot!
Temps are forecast to stay above normal into Dec. However, post 10 Nov only by 1.5%.
2/n
Both South East & Central Europe are 5% above 30-year normal temps too. Both regions are forecast to normalise after 10 November.
That will leave gas storages constrained well into Dec.
My hunch is that gas prices will not recover much until storages go < 55% (Jan/Feb).
3/n
That will leave gas storages constrained well into Dec.
My hunch is that gas prices will not recover much until storages go < 55% (Jan/Feb).
3/n
Il secondo #Thread di oggi riguarderà un signore di nome #DUGIN, il capo della Rep. di #Donetsk #Pushilin e P. #Gubarev ex capo di Stato della #RepubblicaPopolare di #Donetsk
[1diN]
[1diN]
Questo perchè, dopo aver ascoltato tante accuse di "#nazismo" rivolte ad un popolo (gli ucraini), è necessario iniziare a fare un po' di ordine.
Sul battaglione #WAGNER, che combatte insieme ai #Jihadisti in #Mali e #Centrafrica [2diN]
Sul battaglione #WAGNER, che combatte insieme ai #Jihadisti in #Mali e #Centrafrica [2diN]
vedi anche ilsussidiario.net/news/russia-in… e che combatte in #Ucraina è già stato detto molto. E solo un sordo può ostinarsi a non capire che #wagner sia un #battaglione ispirato a principi di estrema destra, come del resto lo è #Azov. [3diN]
If the government does decide to proceed with the current procurement process for the National Broadband Plan after publishing the Smyth report it is almost impossible to see how value for money can be ensured for the taxpayer #NBP 1/
Anyone who reads the ownership report published by KPMG which set out the various ownership options for the NBP prior to the current tender can see that the entire rationale for adopting a gap funding approach was based on their being strong competition for the contract /2
One of the key assumptions in the report underpinning the recommendation to proceed with a gap funding model is that placing long-term ownership of the network with the private sector would allow bidders to "leverage the use of their existing infrastructure" 3/
