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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
JUST IN: Columbus, Robeson and Wilson counties will begin reporting results at 8:30pm tonight. As of now, all other NC counties are set to begin reporting at 7:30pm. #ncpol #Election2022 @WRAL
So what does this mean and why did this happen? There was either a technical or logistical issue at one precinct in each of these three counties that impacted voting access. As a result, state elections officials extended voting.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
A week late, but let's do a thread on the Alabama VRA case and what it might mean for redistricting in 2024. The Supreme Court is expected to reinterpret the VRA--one way or another--next spring, and the Court's new guidelines will change the way states approach redistricting. 1/
Earlier this year, a lower court ordered Alabama to redraw its map (left), which has had one Black-majority district since 1992. Plaintiffs convinced the court that the VRA required Alabama to draw two Black-majority seats (right, for one example). 2/
SCOTUS has long had a 3-factor test (the "Gingles factors") to determine when a VRA district is required:
1. A compact district can be drawn that is at least 50%+1 of a min. group
2. The minority is politically cohesive
3. Whites bloc vote to defeat minorities' candidates
3/
1. A compact district can be drawn that is at least 50%+1 of a min. group
2. The minority is politically cohesive
3. Whites bloc vote to defeat minorities' candidates
3/
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
To put more power in the hands of working people, where it belongs, we need to elect more Democrats up and down the ballot in 2022. Today, I’m endorsing six more candidates who know how to fight and know how to win:
.@StaceyAbrams lifts up the voices of Georgia families who have been counted out and left behind. She has a vision and a plan to help working Georgians succeed. I fought by her side in 2018, I’m proud to endorse her today, and I can’t wait to call her Governor Abrams in 2023.
.@TinaKotek has already gotten big things done for working families in Oregon, like raising the minimum wage, expanding health coverage, and passing paid sick leave and paid family leave. I’m glad to endorse her for governor so she can keep up the fight.
Thread: yes, the new House map is on track to be slightly more *equitable* (less pro-GOP) than the current one. But keep in mind, it's also on track to feature:
- Even fewer competitive seats
- Even wider disparities in maps' treatment of non-white voters from state to state
- Even fewer competitive seats
- Even wider disparities in maps' treatment of non-white voters from state to state
I think @mcpli's broader point is fair, but the way I'd frame it is that vastly different standards are being applied to non-white communities in TX vs. IL, AL vs. VA, etc. depending on partisan motive, absent a clearer set of VRA rules from SCOTUS/Congress.
NC Republicans are going for the jugular: the state senate-approved congressional map move NC from 8R-5D to 10R-3R-1C, dooming #NC06 Rep. Kathy Manning (D) and diluting the Black share in Rep. G.K. Butterfield's (D) #NC01 from 44% to 41% - which could end his career too.
NC's NAACP et. al. have already sued in state court to block it on basis of failing to consider race. Dems also likely to pursue a partisan gerrymandering claim in state court (but NC courts have crept right since 2019).
If this map stands, Dems are likely doomed here in 2022.
If this map stands, Dems are likely doomed here in 2022.
Update: in the last few minutes, NC's GOP legislature officially adopted this map, and Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has no veto power over maps. This plan is now law - and the stampede to the courthouse begins.
THREAD: I spent a lot of the summer interviewing Congressional Black Caucus members from the South. Almost without exception, they now favor legal action to *unpack* their own hyper-safe seats to create more minority opportunities. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"We've only got one of six seats in a state that's a third Black," #LA02 Rep. Troy Carter (D) told me. "If Baton Rouge and Opelousas can be tied in for a second majority-minority district, I'm all in." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"If we're a quarter of the population, we should be a quarter of the seats," #AL07 Rep. Terri Sewell told me. "I'm for broadening the representation of African-Americans across Alabama, instead of concentrating it in my district." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
1/33 Sorry for long thread, but I want to post this before E-Day:
I've worked for years on an unfinished project to draw nonpartisan congressional maps for every state to analyze gerrymandering. This map shows the 2016 pres margin by hypothetical district. State maps to follow.
I've worked for years on an unfinished project to draw nonpartisan congressional maps for every state to analyze gerrymandering. This map shows the 2016 pres margin by hypothetical district. State maps to follow.
2/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Alabama congressional map with two Voting Rights Act districts (#AL02 & #AL07). Second map shows two Black-majority districts to illustrate a VRA liability.
3/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Arizona congressional map.
House members will vote by proxy for the 1st time in chamber's 231-yr history beginning Wed. House clerk posted letters from mbrs who will not be physically present on House floor for votes due to COVID-19 pandemic & have given their proxies to other mbrs.
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
1st term #CA39 Democratic @RepGilCisneros has designated his voting proxy to 1st term #PA06 Democratic @RepHoulahan.
3rd term #VA08 Democratic @RepDonBeyer, who represents one of the closest House districts to Capitol Hill, will vote by proxy for 7th term Democratic #TN09 @RepCohen, chair of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties.
1/ A court blocked North Carolina's 10-3 GOP-majority congressional germander, & GOP legislators are redrawing the map & could pass one next week. The GOP suspiciously hasn't shared any of their draft maps online, but Dems have, so I'll post those maps in this thread #NCGA #NCpol
Okay, #NorthCarolina
Here’s THREAD of Voting Info links & All your Democratic Candidates (#PrimaryElection winners) with photos & website links.
Support them to make #BlueWave2018 at #Midterms2018!
#NC01 #NC02 #NC03 #NC04 #NC05 #NC06 #NC07 #NC08 #NC09 #NC10 #NC11 #NC12 #NC13
Here’s THREAD of Voting Info links & All your Democratic Candidates (#PrimaryElection winners) with photos & website links.
Support them to make #BlueWave2018 at #Midterms2018!
#NC01 #NC02 #NC03 #NC04 #NC05 #NC06 #NC07 #NC08 #NC09 #NC10 #NC11 #NC12 #NC13
VOTER REGISTRATION
NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by OCTOBER 12 here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Application form ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
To County Board of Elections here: vt.ncsbe.gov/BOEInfo
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
Check Registration here: vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/
NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by OCTOBER 12 here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Application form ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
To County Board of Elections here: vt.ncsbe.gov/BOEInfo
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
Check Registration here: vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/
ABSENTEE VOTING
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
Apply by October 30th; Return by November 6th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
Apply by October 30th; Return by November 6th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
Hey #NorthCarolina. You're one of the Lucky 4 States next up for #BlueWave2018
Here's a THREAD of ALL your Democratic Candidates in All District Primaries
VOTE MAY 8, 2018
Register by April 13th here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
#BlueWaveNC
Here's a THREAD of ALL your Democratic Candidates in All District Primaries
VOTE MAY 8, 2018
Register by April 13th here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
#BlueWaveNC
EARLY VOTING #NC
Starts APRIL 18
Ends MAY 5, 2018
One-stop absentee voting ("early voting") allows any registered voter to cast an absentee ballot in person on select days prior to Election Day.
Find early voting locations at One-Stop Voting Sites here vt.ncsbe.gov/ossite/
Starts APRIL 18
Ends MAY 5, 2018
One-stop absentee voting ("early voting") allows any registered voter to cast an absentee ballot in person on select days prior to Election Day.
Find early voting locations at One-Stop Voting Sites here vt.ncsbe.gov/ossite/
ABSENTEE VOTING
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
For Primaries Apply by May 1st Return by May 7th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
For Primaries Apply by May 1st Return by May 7th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
