Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nc02

Most recents (14)

Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.

As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.

Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!

However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
Read 7 tweets
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
A RECAP of 2020 House races (now that #NY22 is finally resolved)

Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority

Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
The # of House GOP women grew 130%, from 13 to 30, in one cycle

13 Dem members lost in November. But House Rs didn't lose a single incumbent.

Dems flipped #GA07 (Biden+6) & #NC02 + #NC06, thanks to redistricting. The GOP flipped 11 Trump-won & 4 Biden-won districts
GOP flips by presidential margin:

#MN07 (Trump+30)
#NM02 (Trump+12)
#NY11 (Trump+11)
#UT04 (Trump+9)
#SC01 (Trump+6)
#OK05 (Trump+6)
#FL26 (Trump+5)
#IA01 (Trump+4)
#IA02 (Trump+4)
#MI03 (Trump+4)
#NY22 (Trump+??)
#CA48 (Biden+2)
#FL27 (Biden+3)
#CA21 (Biden+10)
#CA39 (Biden+10)
Read 3 tweets
Breaking: NC court rules new GOP-drawn cong. map will stand. New map replaces current 10R-3D plan w/ an 8R-5D breakdown. But, ruling will disappoint Dems, who sued for additional opportunities.

*Dems could still appeal to NC Supreme Court but candidate filing opens today.
Whiplash: this latest plan is likely to be NC's 3rd different R-drawn congressional map in 4 election cycles - and there will be *another* drawn in time for 2022, when NC is likely to pick up a 14th congressional district. Image
Under this new plan, Dems are virtually guaranteed to pick up #NC02 (Raleigh) and #NC06 (Greensboro/Winston-Salem). This is a huge insurance policy for Speaker Pelosi/Dems' 17-seat majority - before the 2020 election even starts.
Read 4 tweets
Big: the new map the #NCGA just passed is an insurance policy for Dems' House majority. It effectively gifts Dems two additional seats in 2020 (#NC02 & #NC06).

And, a pending Dem lawsuit against it could put one *more* seat in play, giving Dems/Pelosi even more insurance.
So why are Dems suing to invalidate a new map that converts a 10R-3D map to an 8R-5D map? Because they have nothing to lose: a map drawn by a special court-appointed master would only get even better for them vs. the remedial map just drawn by the GOP-led #NCGA.
The key region in dispute? Fayetteville, Robeson Co., & the Sandhills. The new R-drawn map still divides Dem votes there between #NC08 & #NC09 to protect two R incumbents who live in the far-away Charlotte suburbs.
Read 4 tweets
1/ A court blocked North Carolina's 10-3 GOP-majority congressional germander, & GOP legislators are redrawing the map & could pass one next week. The GOP suspiciously hasn't shared any of their draft maps online, but Dems have, so I'll post those maps in this thread #NCGA #NCpol
2/ This North Carolina draft congressional map was drawn by Democratic state Sen. Ben Clark on Wednesday. Here are the partisan and demographic summary stats for it #NCGA #NCpol
3/ This North Carolina draft congressional map was drawn by Democratic state Rep. Jean Farmer-Butterfield on Friday. Here are the partisan and demographic summary stats for it #NCGA #NCpol
Read 64 tweets
Today's (10-31) Data Thread: NC's 2018 'early votes' are setting new #s in terms of absentee by mail & one-stop/in-person for a mid-term:

Over 1.4M requests have been made & returned & accepted (accepted mail not yet past 2014 total #s, but in-person has)

#ncpol #ncvotes
2018's absentee by mail ballots have slowed somewhat, & thus the #s have not yet reached 2014's #s.

But in absentee onestop/in-person ballots, NC has exceed 2014's #s for both requested & accepted.

Reminder: 2014 had 10 days of early voting & 2018 has 18 days.

#ncpol #ncvotes
Here are NC's 2018 requested NC absentee ballots for both mail and in-person methods, by daily totals and daily cumulative totals.

Tuesday saw 130K in-person early voters request ballots as we start final few days of NC's early voting period (ends Saturday)

#ncpol #ncvotes
Read 28 tweets
Good #Sundaymorning! ❤️

Today's @BlueWaveCS🌊 #COTD (🚨and subject of our #10Q interview tonight at 8 EDT!🚨) is @LindaForNC running in #NC02.

She's at 3.5k followers. Think we can get her to 3.7k?

FOLLOW: ➡️@LindaForNC
SUPPORT: ➡️bit.ly/BWCS_Coleman
#AMJoy
You can find out more about @BlueWaveCS' #SundayMorning #COTD on our site, which links directly to her volunteer page.
#GOTV, North Carolina! #NC02 #AMJoy
bluewavecrowdsource.com/candidates/lin…
Read 5 tweets
🚨 Please share broadly! As usual, the Kochs are dumping tons of money into GOP candidates...especially into *critical swing districts* we need to flip.

I've threaded links below to the Democratic challengers in these races. Please RT and support them! /1
truth-out.org/news/item/4458…
I focused the list of NOMINEES. These are Democrats in swing districts who have already won their primaries and are facing off against Koch-infused Republicans in fall.
#IL06
GOP Koch Candidate: Peter Roskam
Dem Challenger: Sean Casten @SeanCasten
castenforcongress.com
Read 33 tweets
Okay, #NorthCarolina
Here’s THREAD of Voting Info links & All your Democratic Candidates (#PrimaryElection winners) with photos & website links.
Support them to make #BlueWave2018 at #Midterms2018!

#NC01 #NC02 #NC03 #NC04 #NC05 #NC06 #NC07 #NC08 #NC09 #NC10 #NC11 #NC12 #NC13
VOTER REGISTRATION
NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by OCTOBER 12 here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Application form ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
To County Board of Elections here: vt.ncsbe.gov/BOEInfo
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
Check Registration here: vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/
ABSENTEE VOTING
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
Apply by October 30th; Return by November 6th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
Read 23 tweets
Hey #NorthCarolina. You're one of the Lucky 4 States next up for #BlueWave2018
Here's a THREAD of ALL your Democratic Candidates in All District Primaries
VOTE MAY 8, 2018
Register by April 13th here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
#BlueWaveNC
EARLY VOTING #NC
Starts APRIL 18
Ends MAY 5, 2018
One-stop absentee voting ("early voting") allows any registered voter to cast an absentee ballot in person on select days prior to Election Day.
Find early voting locations at One-Stop Voting Sites here vt.ncsbe.gov/ossite/
ABSENTEE VOTING
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
For Primaries Apply by May 1st Return by May 7th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
Read 17 tweets
Tonight on #ElectionTwitter, since NC may re-re-redistrict it's Cong. districts, we're gonna be looking back at the Congressional map that was in place from 2002 to 2010. #ncpol #ncga
Why this map? 1) It was drawn by Dems, and represents something of a best-case for them and 2) I've always liked this map, and usually end up breaking statewide races down under its lines, anyway. #ncpol #ncga
The 2001 Congressional map held up pretty well for Democrats. For example, they went into the red wave of 2010 holding 8 of 13 seats. They lost the House popular vote by 9% in NC, but of their seats, only #NC02 flipped R, and only barely. #ncpol
Read 6 tweets

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