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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
House Democratic challengers
Kevin McCarthy -
@KimMangone
Matt Gaetz-
@PhilEhr
Devin Nunes -
@PhilArballo2020
Jim Jordan -
@ShannonFreshour
(Mark Meadows seat)
@ColMorrisDavis
Elise Stefanik -
@TedraCobb
John Ratcliffe -
@RussellFosterTX
Kevin McCarthy -
@KimMangone
Matt Gaetz-
@PhilEhr
Devin Nunes -
@PhilArballo2020
Jim Jordan -
@ShannonFreshour
(Mark Meadows seat)
@ColMorrisDavis
Elise Stefanik -
@TedraCobb
John Ratcliffe -
@RussellFosterTX
@KimMangone @PhilEhr @PhilArballo2020 @ShannonFreshour @ColMorrisDavis @TedraCobb @RussellFosterTX Jeff Van Drew
@BrigidforSJ
@BrigidforSJ
@KimMangone @PhilEhr @PhilArballo2020 @ShannonFreshour @ColMorrisDavis @TedraCobb @RussellFosterTX @BrigidforSJ Thank you to everyone who is adding on, I'm liking them then I can go back and add to this thread, keep them coming.👍
A weird issue the new GOP-passed NC congressional map wouldn't do anything to fix: about 23% of NC's population lives south and west of Charlotte, but there are currently zero members of Congress from there. #ncga
sorry, south and *east
#NC07 Rep. David Rouzer (R) moved to Wilmington last year, but he's really from 100+ miles north in Johnston Co. (still his political base), which is why Rs originally connected the two areas back in 2011.
NCSBE's first witness of the day is Michele Maultsby #NC09
Maultsby is a poll worker in Bladen County. She was the chief judge at her precinct #NC09
WHOA. Guys, it's not just #NC09.
In Columbus County, which is next to Bladen, also saw a significant drop in returned absentee ballots. Normally ~15% of absentees aren't returned, but in Columbus, it was over 30%.
The incumbent sheriff, a Democrat, lost by 57 votes. 1/
In Columbus County, which is next to Bladen, also saw a significant drop in returned absentee ballots. Normally ~15% of absentees aren't returned, but in Columbus, it was over 30%.
The incumbent sheriff, a Democrat, lost by 57 votes. 1/
Democrat Lewis Hatcher (the incumbent) ran against Republican Jody Greene. It was a very competitive race. 2/
WECT9 reported tonight about the discrepancy in absentee ballots. Turns out, the man in the middle of the #NC09 election fraud, McCrae Dowless, was also working for Jody Greene, the Republican candidate, in Columbus County. 3/
Email I received today from @drkyle4congress , Democratic candidate for #NC07 {Short thread}
"Hi Friends,
My commitment to serve our great nation in Congress is based in my love of this country and an understanding of our history...
1/6
"Hi Friends,
My commitment to serve our great nation in Congress is based in my love of this country and an understanding of our history...
1/6
"Multiple generations of my family have served in the Armed Forces, from World War II to the present. Growing up near Wright Patterson Air Force Base, I spent countless hours at the United States Air Force Museum learning about the history of our nation’s military...
2/6
2/6
"I recognize the profound impact that the Cold War has had on generations in this country.
What we saw on display at the Helsinki Summit was an incompetent President without knowledge and recognition of these dangerous chapters in US history...
3/6
What we saw on display at the Helsinki Summit was an incompetent President without knowledge and recognition of these dangerous chapters in US history...
3/6
🚨 Please share broadly! As usual, the Kochs are dumping tons of money into GOP candidates...especially into *critical swing districts* we need to flip.
I've threaded links below to the Democratic challengers in these races. Please RT and support them! /1
truth-out.org/news/item/4458…
I've threaded links below to the Democratic challengers in these races. Please RT and support them! /1
truth-out.org/news/item/4458…
I focused the list of NOMINEES. These are Democrats in swing districts who have already won their primaries and are facing off against Koch-infused Republicans in fall.
#IL06
GOP Koch Candidate: Peter Roskam
Dem Challenger: Sean Casten @SeanCasten
castenforcongress.com
GOP Koch Candidate: Peter Roskam
Dem Challenger: Sean Casten @SeanCasten
castenforcongress.com
Okay, #NorthCarolina
Here’s THREAD of Voting Info links & All your Democratic Candidates (#PrimaryElection winners) with photos & website links.
Support them to make #BlueWave2018 at #Midterms2018!
#NC01 #NC02 #NC03 #NC04 #NC05 #NC06 #NC07 #NC08 #NC09 #NC10 #NC11 #NC12 #NC13
Here’s THREAD of Voting Info links & All your Democratic Candidates (#PrimaryElection winners) with photos & website links.
Support them to make #BlueWave2018 at #Midterms2018!
#NC01 #NC02 #NC03 #NC04 #NC05 #NC06 #NC07 #NC08 #NC09 #NC10 #NC11 #NC12 #NC13
VOTER REGISTRATION
NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by OCTOBER 12 here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Application form ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
To County Board of Elections here: vt.ncsbe.gov/BOEInfo
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
Check Registration here: vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/
NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by OCTOBER 12 here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Application form ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
To County Board of Elections here: vt.ncsbe.gov/BOEInfo
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
Check Registration here: vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/
ABSENTEE VOTING
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
Apply by October 30th; Return by November 6th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
Apply by October 30th; Return by November 6th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
Hey #NorthCarolina. You're one of the Lucky 4 States next up for #BlueWave2018
Here's a THREAD of ALL your Democratic Candidates in All District Primaries
VOTE MAY 8, 2018
Register by April 13th here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
#BlueWaveNC
Here's a THREAD of ALL your Democratic Candidates in All District Primaries
VOTE MAY 8, 2018
Register by April 13th here ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registe…
Polling Place here: vt.ncsbe.gov/PPLkup/
#BlueWaveNC
EARLY VOTING #NC
Starts APRIL 18
Ends MAY 5, 2018
One-stop absentee voting ("early voting") allows any registered voter to cast an absentee ballot in person on select days prior to Election Day.
Find early voting locations at One-Stop Voting Sites here vt.ncsbe.gov/ossite/
Starts APRIL 18
Ends MAY 5, 2018
One-stop absentee voting ("early voting") allows any registered voter to cast an absentee ballot in person on select days prior to Election Day.
Find early voting locations at One-Stop Voting Sites here vt.ncsbe.gov/ossite/
ABSENTEE VOTING
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
For Primaries Apply by May 1st Return by May 7th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
All voters are eligible to vote absentee in North Carolina.
For Primaries Apply by May 1st Return by May 7th
Application here: ncsbe.gov/Portals/0/Form…
Or
absentee.vote.org/?state=North+C…
*Signature on application hand-written not digital.
Military? fvap.gov/fpca-privacy-n…
