Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #netassessment
Most recents (3)
Last year in late Sept, I published this #NetAssessment for our @NewlinesInst predicting that the Islamic Republic regime would be replaced by an emirate 2.0 and outlined its architecture in considerable detail.
newlinesinstitute.org/governance/the…
newlinesinstitute.org/governance/the…
At the time I was assuming that a U.S. withdrawal would lead to a prolonged civil war. And that in a best case scenario at some point both sides would arrive at a power-sharing deal leading to a new regime that would be a Sunni Afghan version of Iran's clerical regime.
But now that the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan fell on its face and in a little over a week there is a need to revisit my analysis and forecast.
The core of my assessment remains unchanged. But it is important re-examine it in the light of the current situation.
The core of my assessment remains unchanged. But it is important re-examine it in the light of the current situation.
Important thread here👇from @bsarwary on how the country’s northernmost Badakhshan province appears to be rapidly falling under Taliban ctrl.
The Talib’s focus on this province is a highly significant geopol dvlpmnt as US forces are about a month away from a complete pullout.
The Talib’s focus on this province is a highly significant geopol dvlpmnt as US forces are about a month away from a complete pullout.
Badakhshan was the one province that did not fall under Taliban control even during the heyday of the jihadist regime prior to 9/11.
Thus it served as the staging grounds from where the U.S. backed Northern Alliance forces began the ground offensive to topple the Talib emirate.
Thus it served as the staging grounds from where the U.S. backed Northern Alliance forces began the ground offensive to topple the Talib emirate.
Given its location the former Northern Alliance forces were supported by Russia, India & Iran from across the border in Tajikistan.
Stuck @ home wondering where China & world are headed? Read #TheChinaQuestions—36 @Harvard @FairbankCenter chs. ed. by Profs. @MichaelSzonyi & Rudolf!
Order: amazon.com/gp/product/067…
English: fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/china-question…
中文: bit.ly/FairbankCenter
한국어: bit.ly/ChinaQuestions
Order: amazon.com/gp/product/067…
English: fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/china-question…
中文: bit.ly/FairbankCenter
한국어: bit.ly/ChinaQuestions
See great chapters by Profs. Elizabeth Perry, Joe Fewsmith, Rod MacFarquhar, Mark Elliott, Ya-Wen Lei, Arunabh Ghosh, Yuhua Wang, Arne Westad, Robert Ross, Ian Johnston, Steve Goldstein, Ezra Vogel, Richard Cooper, Dwight Perkins, Meg Rithmire, Mark Wu, Tony Saich, Nara Dillon... 
..Michael McElroy, Karen Thornber, Susan Greenhalgh, James Robson, Leonard W. J. van der Kuijp, Bill Alford, Bill Kirby, Michael Puett, Rowan Flad, Peter Bol, Wai-Yee Li, David Der-wei Wang, Jie Li, Stephen Owen & Paul Cohen!
Honored to join them in this @FairbankCenter project!
Honored to join them in this @FairbankCenter project!
