Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nfpguesses
Most recents (5)
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 03May20 wk18/19 thread 1/n
"Imagine economies re-open and go straight to trade war ?"
• Earning season (low bias?)
• Macro data keep tanking
• RiskOn wk until tariff talk, mkt reversed
• next wk NFP -21mln?
"Imagine economies re-open and go straight to trade war ?"
• Earning season (low bias?)
• Macro data keep tanking
• RiskOn wk until tariff talk, mkt reversed
• next wk NFP -21mln?
2/n couldn't resist chart above (SPX pg1), where govt reaction led to economy standstill, global CBs , esp FED "steps in" to rescue (again), stocks TINA rebound.
Chart below: Liquidity /funding stress and vola calmed down. Like a template deja-vu.
Question: re-open how slow?
Chart below: Liquidity /funding stress and vola calmed down. Like a template deja-vu.
Question: re-open how slow?
3/n wk18 mixed week, 1st half positive, 2nd half reversal (Tariff spooky). Oh by the way, for the candle stick chartists, many stock indices produced a weekly "gravestone/shooting star".
Anyways, energy sector outperforming on output cut talk.
Credits tighter on the wk overall
Anyways, energy sector outperforming on output cut talk.
Credits tighter on the wk overall
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 06Dec19 wk49
1/n
• Global M.PMI rebound
• NFP NFP NFP NFP
• OPEC to cut output ?
• Creditspreads tighter
• Canada UE rate jumps
• NZD & GBP broke out
• oh, yeah, China trade deal
• Messiah Greta arrived safely
1/n
• Global M.PMI rebound
• NFP NFP NFP NFP
• OPEC to cut output ?
• Creditspreads tighter
• Canada UE rate jumps
• NZD & GBP broke out
• oh, yeah, China trade deal
• Messiah Greta arrived safely
2/n Global markets Momentum / Trend / Exhaustion scores wk49
• bunch of new 52wk highs in some stock markets / sectors
• credit swap indices remain very supportive
• "club med" South European bond yields going wider, hmm...hello ECB?
• Coffee anyone ?
• bunch of new 52wk highs in some stock markets / sectors
• credit swap indices remain very supportive
• "club med" South European bond yields going wider, hmm...hello ECB?
• Coffee anyone ?
3/n Global Markets YTD update wk49
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 29Nov19 wk48
1/n
• Vola is dead (FX,SPX), long live Vola (CL,NG)
• Oil&NatGas plunge on ATH supply vs less demand
• China PMI rebounds
• Creditspreads tighter
• green shoots in some ESI surveys ?
• Footie Group F WTF !
1/n
• Vola is dead (FX,SPX), long live Vola (CL,NG)
• Oil&NatGas plunge on ATH supply vs less demand
• China PMI rebounds
• Creditspreads tighter
• green shoots in some ESI surveys ?
• Footie Group F WTF !
2/n Nov performance
• 47 or so global CB rate cuts supporting the stock market
• credits supportive too
• Chile turmoil leaves ECH and Peso at the bottom, sad.
• Pound sterling top of the class ahead of GE
• 47 or so global CB rate cuts supporting the stock market
• credits supportive too
• Chile turmoil leaves ECH and Peso at the bottom, sad.
• Pound sterling top of the class ahead of GE
3/n global markets YTD as of wk48
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly Recap wk30 as of 26Jul19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n
• stocks mixed, SPX outperformed RoW
• Tech+Banks top, Miners PT
• Creditspreads tighter
• CMDTY driven FX weaker
• ZA downgraded by Fitch
• TR CBRT cut -425bp
• v volatile post ECB session
• stocks mixed, SPX outperformed RoW
• Tech+Banks top, Miners PT
• Creditspreads tighter
• CMDTY driven FX weaker
• ZA downgraded by Fitch
• TR CBRT cut -425bp
• v volatile post ECB session
2/n Global Markets monthly performance update ...as we nearly end RiskOn July
3/n Global Markets update YTD as of wk30 = RiskOn 2019 so far
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Weekly recap wk10 08Mar19 - thread 1/n
• RiskOFF week
• CreditSpreads wider
• YieldCurve Flattening
• 10Y Govt bond rally
• dovish RBA, ECB, BoC
• Stocks down
• VIX up
• JPY up
• RiskOFF week
• CreditSpreads wider
• YieldCurve Flattening
• 10Y Govt bond rally
• dovish RBA, ECB, BoC
• Stocks down
• VIX up
• JPY up
2/n Global Markets ROC overview
3/n Global Markets YTD
... as expected, annualised YTD pace not sustainable, this week cooling down if not worse.
... as expected, annualised YTD pace not sustainable, this week cooling down if not worse.
