Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nfz

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This 👇 piece contains some dangerous assumptions, which appear to be gaining traction in Washington DC thinking regarding Russia's war against Ukraine. 🧵 #StopRussia #ArmUkraine 1/ atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
First, the view that US/NATO should refrain from enforcing a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine due to the risk of an all out NATO-Russia war is "mired in appeasement thinking". 2/
Wrong. It has nothing to do with appeasing Russia. There is a very real risk of tipping Russian decision making across the nuclear threshold. A #NFZ involves US/NATO combat missions against Russian aircraft, ground-based and naval air defence systems, and airfields. 3/
Read 22 tweets
Thread #Ukraine|

Gut wrenching. Key point: a #NFZ wouldn’t prevent this. There are 2 main air operations: Defensive Counter Air (DCA) & Offensive Counter Air, Surface Attack (SA). An NFZ comes under DCA. 2/
2. #Ukraine #NFZ|

What @ZelenskyyUa should be asking @POTUS for is this:

To target RU rockets/artillery *inside Ukraine* you need Close Air Support (CAS), a subset of Offensive Counter Air Surface Attack (OCA SA) missions. 3/
3. #Ukraine|

Weapon of choice (for UK Typhoons) would be Brimstone anti-armour missile. 6 per jet. More on Brimstone here:

thinkdefence.co.uk/brimstone-guid…

U.S weapon of choice would be Hellfire (platforms MQ-9 Reaper, MQ-1B Predator, AH-64).

Watch: U.K Brimstone strikes in Libya

4/
Read 7 tweets
I share the frustration over Putin’s murderous war.

But I fear we have grown accustomed to fighting enemies who had no way to out-escalate us.

A thread on what we can learn from the Libya #NFZ for our options today and the risks of escalation: (1/15)
Eleven years ago, the U.S. was on the cusp of imposing its no-fly zone over Libya to stop Qaddafi’s attacks on civilians. Now pressure is growing for a #NFZ over Ukraine. (2/15) Image
NATO expected a quick no fly zone operation in Libya. Conditions were favorable because most of Qaddafi’s air force had defected.

But the Libyan dictator still had old Soviet long-range surface to air systems -- SA-2 Guideline, SA-3 Goa, and SA-5 Gammons. (3/15)
Read 15 tweets
Agree w/ @jensstoltenberg. If the aim is to disrupt and deter RU use of Ukraine airspace, Stinger is your option. Lots of them, closely monitored by SF. Benefits?

1. Air Crews are shit scared of Stinger which has superior counter counter measures. 2/
2. #Ukraine #NFZ

When I flew in Iraq and Afghanistan, even the idea of MANPADs being part of our threat, created all sorts of additional protocols. And Stinger, that’s a nightmare. As soon as a RU ac is taken out by Stinger, RU aircrews’ morale will head south. 3/
3. #Ukraine #NFZ

The logistical tail of creating a 24/7 NFZ is huge. Where will the NATO ac be located? Baltic Air Policing is based out of Lithuania and Estonia. If based out of there, tanking will be required, and you risk Putin striking the bases. Escalation. 4/
Read 16 tweets
I understand the risks of escalation through US interference via a No-Fly Zone.

I get it.

But here’s why it should be done anyway. 1/10
The US owes #Ukraine after the Budapest Memorandum. We talk about nukes and the desire for peace. That’s also what Ukraine wanted, which is why we gave up our nukes. Now we’re paying the price. 2/10
The US does not get held hostage by terrorists. Yet, that’s exactly what #Putin is doing - holding the US hostage through the threat of nuclear war. 3/10
Read 10 tweets

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