Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nh02
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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
FINAL UNH poll of NEW HAMPSHIRE
#NHSEN
Hassan (D-Inc): 50%
Bolduc (R): 48%
#NH01
Pappas (D-Inc): 50%
Leavitt (R): 49%
#NH02
Kuster (D-Inc): 53%
Burns (R): 45%
#NHGov
Sununu (R-Inc): 55%
Sherman (D): 43%
State Sen/House/EC
GOP +1/TIED/GOP +1
We are in for a hell of a night.
#NHSEN
Hassan (D-Inc): 50%
Bolduc (R): 48%
#NH01
Pappas (D-Inc): 50%
Leavitt (R): 49%
#NH02
Kuster (D-Inc): 53%
Burns (R): 45%
#NHGov
Sununu (R-Inc): 55%
Sherman (D): 43%
State Sen/House/EC
GOP +1/TIED/GOP +1
We are in for a hell of a night.
UNH nailed the presidential/senate & NH-01 margins in 2020 in their final poll. Pretty solid.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
New @SaintAnselmPoll shows @AnnMcLaneKuster leading challenger @BurnsForNH 49% to 35% (7% unsure, 9% someone else) #NHPolitics #NH02 #WMUR
The @SaintAnselmPoll shows @AnnMcLaneKuster at 48% favorable / 46% unfavorable (6% no opinion) #NHPolitics #NH02 #WMUR
The @SaintAnselmPoll shows @BurnsForNH at 26% favorable / 27% unfavorable (with a notable 47% no opinion) #NHPolitics #NH02 #WMUR
#NHSen
Hassan (D): 51%
Bolduc (R): 40%
#NHGov
Sununu (R): 52%
Sherman (D): 38%
#NH01
Pappas: 47%
Leavitt: 42%
#NH02
Kuster (D): 54%
Burns (R): 36%
"Well if it isn't the consequences of my own actions" #NHPolitics
Hassan (D): 51%
Bolduc (R): 40%
#NHGov
Sununu (R): 52%
Sherman (D): 38%
#NH01
Pappas: 47%
Leavitt: 42%
#NH02
Kuster (D): 54%
Burns (R): 36%
"Well if it isn't the consequences of my own actions" #NHPolitics
It's by far the least discussed race but Sununu winning by 15% sounds about right.
Less than half of his margin in 2020, but still a big win.
Less than half of his margin in 2020, but still a big win.
Independents are backing Hassan 48/36, Pappas 48/41, Kuster 49/37 & Sununu 53/35.
The MAGA sweep in New Hampshire included far-right former Hillsborough Treasurer Bob Burns defeating Sununu-backed Keene Mayor George Hansel in #NH02.
Burns labeled Hansel as "Woke George", racking up margins anywhere where there was a sizable GOP primary voter presence.
Burns labeled Hansel as "Woke George", racking up margins anywhere where there was a sizable GOP primary voter presence.
Hansel really collapsed in the Hillsborough portion of NH-02, which he needed to win. He even lost moderate R towns like Hollis
Former 2016 Libertarian Colorado Senate candidate Lilly Tang Williams, who was endorsed by some "liberty" types greatly outperformed expectations IMO.
Former 2016 Libertarian Colorado Senate candidate Lilly Tang Williams, who was endorsed by some "liberty" types greatly outperformed expectations IMO.
Bob Burns does not live in NH-02. He has a PO Box in Pembroke, but all FEC documents point to his address in Bedford (NH-01).
Look at the results from last night's Republican primaries in NH:
#NHSEN- MAGA Republican won
#NH02- MAGA Republican won
#NH01- MAGA Republican won
All 3 of them are far-right election deniers.
For the sake of our democracy, this anti-democracy cult must be defeated in Nov.
#NHSEN- MAGA Republican won
#NH02- MAGA Republican won
#NH01- MAGA Republican won
All 3 of them are far-right election deniers.
For the sake of our democracy, this anti-democracy cult must be defeated in Nov.
Don't forget, the Republican establishment invested heavily against this candidate, but they won anyway. In fact, Trump didn't even endorse anyone in the senate race, but the MAGA candidate won anyway. This isn't just a fringe. This is what the Republican base has become.
Liz Cheney said: "The reality that we face today as Republicans...we have to choose, because Republicans cannot both be loyal to Trump and loyal to the Constitution."
At the end of the primaries season, what Republicans have chosen is clear. They must lose the election in Nov.
At the end of the primaries season, what Republicans have chosen is clear. They must lose the election in Nov.
MAGA sweeps New Hampshire.
📧 Subscribers, check your inboxes for our last post-primary update of 2022.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/senat…
📧 Subscribers, check your inboxes for our last post-primary update of 2022.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/senat…
"If there were any doubt as to where the base of the GOP resides, the results of the New Hampshire primary made it very clear that it is with Trump."
Read our latest by @amyewalter, @Redistrict and @JessicaTaylor (🔒): cookpolitical.com/analysis/senat…
Read our latest by @amyewalter, @Redistrict and @JessicaTaylor (🔒): cookpolitical.com/analysis/senat…
We are making one rating change. #NH02 moves from Toss Up to Lean D.
Our full House rating chart can be found here: cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-…
Our full House rating chart can be found here: cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-…
After 5,608 votes in, 108 votes separate Don Bolduc and Chuck Morse in the #NHSen GOP primary
10,733 votes in now, Bolduc clinging to a 465-vote lead over Morse in the #NHSen GOP primary.
results.decisiondeskhq.com/sep13-2022-ele…
results.decisiondeskhq.com/sep13-2022-ele…
15,313 votes in, Bolduc up 398 votes over Chuck Morse in the #NHSen GOP primary.
Congressional Leadership Fund's $2.3 million intervention for Matt Mowers in the #NH01 primary may not have worked...
results.decisiondeskhq.com/sep13-2022-ele…
Congressional Leadership Fund's $2.3 million intervention for Matt Mowers in the #NH01 primary may not have worked...
results.decisiondeskhq.com/sep13-2022-ele…
Democrats are spending close to $100k on TV ads for Republican Bob Burns in the #NH02 GOP primary. Democrats are scared Keene Mayor George Hansel (R) can beat Rep. Annie Kuster (D) so they are trying to trick Republicans into nominating Burns.
politico.com/news/2022/08/2…
politico.com/news/2022/08/2…
Bob Burns (R) only raised about $180K for his #NH02 campaign. So the 6 figure ad buy Democrats are making on his behalf is almost as much as Burns has spent on his entire campaign. This is the fake ad Democrats are spending a fortune on to boost Burns👇
Democrats are also sending GOP primary voters in #NH02 anonymous pro Bob Burns (R) mail pieces. The flyers have no identification or disclaimers (which is a violation of federal campaign finance law) but come from Democrat direct mail shop Reynolds DeWalt.
Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux flipped #GA07 blue & helped put Georgia in the Dem column for the 1st time since 1992.
@Carolyn4GA7 uses her experience helping to rebuild GA’s economy in the Great Recession to tackle kitchen table issues for working families. #WomensHistoryMonth
@Carolyn4GA7 uses her experience helping to rebuild GA’s economy in the Great Recession to tackle kitchen table issues for working families. #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez fought for decades for equity & investment in the health & economic security of Latino & tribal communities.
@TeresaForNM’s expertise is vital as the House tackles a pandemic w/ disparate impact on these communities. #NM03 #WomensHistoryMonth
@TeresaForNM’s expertise is vital as the House tackles a pandemic w/ disparate impact on these communities. #NM03 #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Marie Newman’s fight for #Equality4All was a national model years before she came to DC.
@Marie4Congress also works for health care, gun sense, and curbing economic inequality with workforce & infrastructure investment for a green economy. #IL03 #WomensHistoryMonth
@Marie4Congress also works for health care, gun sense, and curbing economic inequality with workforce & infrastructure investment for a green economy. #IL03 #WomensHistoryMonth
New Hampshire and Rhode Island are holding House and Senate primaries today.
2nd term New Hampshire Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen faces primary challengers today. And in #NHSen Republican primary, several candidates are running to advance to November election including Bryant “Corky” Messner who was endorsed by President Trump.
1st term #NH01 Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas will face the winner of today's 5-candidate Republican primary which includes Matt Mayberry and Matt Mowers who was endorsed by President Trump. Pappas first won election to House in 2018 with 53.6% of the vote.
House members will vote by proxy for the 1st time in chamber's 231-yr history beginning Wed. House clerk posted letters from mbrs who will not be physically present on House floor for votes due to COVID-19 pandemic & have given their proxies to other mbrs.
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
1st term #CA39 Democratic @RepGilCisneros has designated his voting proxy to 1st term #PA06 Democratic @RepHoulahan.
3rd term #VA08 Democratic @RepDonBeyer, who represents one of the closest House districts to Capitol Hill, will vote by proxy for 7th term Democratic #TN09 @RepCohen, chair of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties.
Now endorsed by @BarackObama:
@sharicedavids - #KS03
@JasonCrowCO6 - #CO06
@ElectLong - #WA03
@LucyWins2018 - #GA06
@Carolyn4GA7 - #GA07
@SusanPalmerOH - #OH16
@Axne4Congress - #IA03
@lisa4congress - #WA05
@MaxRose4NY - #NY11
@ChrisPappasNH - #NH01
@Lizzie4Congress - #TX07
@sharicedavids - #KS03
@JasonCrowCO6 - #CO06
@ElectLong - #WA03
@LucyWins2018 - #GA06
@Carolyn4GA7 - #GA07
@SusanPalmerOH - #OH16
@Axne4Congress - #IA03
@lisa4congress - #WA05
@MaxRose4NY - #NY11
@ChrisPappasNH - #NH01
@Lizzie4Congress - #TX07
Obama endorsements cont’d:
@IronStache - #WI01
@DrKimSchrier - #WA08
@ScottWallacePA - #PA01
@nancysoderberg - #FL06
@JahanaHayesCT - #CT05
@Abby4Iowa - #IA01
@BetsyforIL - #IL13
@laurenbaer - #FL18
@golden4congress - #ME02
@ElissaSlotkin - #MI08
@HaleyLive - #MI11
@IronStache - #WI01
@DrKimSchrier - #WA08
@ScottWallacePA - #PA01
@nancysoderberg - #FL06
@JahanaHayesCT - #CT05
@Abby4Iowa - #IA01
@BetsyforIL - #IL13
@laurenbaer - #FL18
@golden4congress - #ME02
@ElissaSlotkin - #MI08
@HaleyLive - #MI11
Obama endorsements cont’d:
@danielfeehan - #MN01
@AngieCraigMN - #MN02
@Clint4Congress - #NV02
@karaforcongress - #NE02
@dana_balter - #NY24
@BetsyRaderOH - #OH14
@LindaForNC - #NC02
@HoulahanForPa - #PA06
@SpanbergerVA07 - #VA07
@JenniferWexton - #VA10
@deanbphillips - #MN03
@danielfeehan - #MN01
@AngieCraigMN - #MN02
@Clint4Congress - #NV02
@karaforcongress - #NE02
@dana_balter - #NY24
@BetsyRaderOH - #OH14
@LindaForNC - #NC02
@HoulahanForPa - #PA06
@SpanbergerVA07 - #VA07
@JenniferWexton - #VA10
@deanbphillips - #MN03
Hey #NewHampshire!
You get to vote in #Primaries #PrimaryElection on SEPTEMBER 11, 2018!
Election Day Registration with ID.
Here's a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates and Voter Info with Links.
Use wherever helpful.
#VoteBlueNH
You get to vote in #Primaries #PrimaryElection on SEPTEMBER 11, 2018!
Election Day Registration with ID.
Here's a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates and Voter Info with Links.
Use wherever helpful.
#VoteBlueNH
VOTER REGISTRATION in #NewHampshire
You may apply to your town or city clerk's office.
Election Forms here: sos.nh.gov/ElecForms2.aspx
Find your Election Clerk here: app.sos.nh.gov/Public/ClerkDe…
#VoteBlueNH
You may apply to your town or city clerk's office.
Election Forms here: sos.nh.gov/ElecForms2.aspx
Find your Election Clerk here: app.sos.nh.gov/Public/ClerkDe…
#VoteBlueNH
