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The next two weeks promise to bring astonishing weather to both sides of the Red Sea & across the Sahara. In this weather bulletin I will explain what the models are forecasting.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
In the image above we see part of Arabia and part of the #NileBasin storms - those which feed the Blue Nile/Abbay and the Tekeze basins the source of most of the Nile's flow.
Below we see:
1. All Nile Basin rainfall as of this evening
2. All of this evenings #ArabianStorms
Below we see:
1. All Nile Basin rainfall as of this evening
2. All of this evenings #ArabianStorms
The rainfall we see on both sides of the Red Sea comes mostly from the same source - the monsoon over the Arabian Sea, India and South East Asia.
A satellite image from this morning shows what we currently think to be the cradle of humanity. Where we all come from.
A satellite image from this morning shows what we currently think to be the cradle of humanity. Where we all come from.
Cyclone #Yaas is just 2 days away from landfall on the North Eastern Indian Coast in the Odisha and once onshore is forecast pass over the ancient city of Jaipur.
Today's #MiddleEast #Sahara and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.
Today's #MiddleEast #Sahara and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.
We have a stunningly clear image of the #NileBasin this morning from @NASA Modis from Cairo to Lake Victoria showing the impact of the April and May rains on the landscape.
In today's 10-Day North Africa rain forecasts the European @ECMWF model remains unconvinced about the impact of #WestAfricaWaterPlumes on the Sahara, which as you will soon see are once again having a spectacular impact on European weather.
This morning's rainfall forecast is actually last nights (I am in the process of moving - a bit stretched. There is a lot going on.
Here we see the ongoing impacts of a #WestAfricaWaterPlume coming into the Middle East and 2 large storms, one over Syria and one over Medina
Here we see the ongoing impacts of a #WestAfricaWaterPlume coming into the Middle East and 2 large storms, one over Syria and one over Medina
Here are last night's 10-day rainfall forecasts for North Africa which are nothing short of astonishing with respect especially to what is expected in #Algeria and #Mauritania. The largest forecast #DesertRain event to date.
This animation is from the is morning and shows the current status of both #WestAfricanMonsoon events. The Plume directed at the #MiddleEast is continuing and the one in the west Sahara is strengthening.
We have another large #ArabianStorm which was not anticipated by the global weather models. And like those before it, it is fueled by the #WestAfricaMonsoon and a #WestAfricaWaterPlume. This time across the Red Sea in the vicinity of #Makkah.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
This animation shows the current state of a weather event that has been a few days in coming. #ArabianStorms
@Arab_Storms
@Arab_Storms
The origin of this event is very similar to that which caused several days of extremely severe thunderstorms in #Oman earlier in the month. This animation is from May 18th shortly after it first appeared in the @zoom_earth satellite imagery.
A @NASA WorldView Modis satellite image from this morning of the #Sudan #Ethiopia Border with a closeup of the #GERD Dam.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica and the #MiddleEast follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica and the #MiddleEast follow.
CMC (Canada) and KMA (Korean) weather model forecasts of 10-day accumulated rainfall in North Africa. These two models have been forecasting a stronger than normal West African Monsoon.
And to complete the set of three negotiating parties looking for an agreement on the filling and operation of the #GERD, here's an image, also from this morning ,of the Nile Delta in Egypt, showing also the Sinai, Gaza, and Southern Israel.
Today's #ArabianStorms were mainly over the Arabian Gulf. #Qatar #Bahrain and the in the middle of the gulf. And the day also saw a storm begin before dawn.
Today's #Ethiopia and #MiddleEast forecasts follow:
Today's #Ethiopia and #MiddleEast forecasts follow:
The latest CMC and GFS North Africa 10-Day Rain forecasts.
Today two streams of monsoon energy appeared to come together over the south end to send a stream of atmospheric moisture to Oman and on to India.
A 2nd theme of today's weather observations is the awesome power of atmospheric water transfer.
Here we can see how a stream of water originating in the Central African Republic is fueling storms in Saudi Arabia & India.
Today's forecasts follow.
Here we can see how a stream of water originating in the Central African Republic is fueling storms in Saudi Arabia & India.
Today's forecasts follow.
The latest GFS North Africa 10-Day Rain forecast.
Here we see atmospheric water leaving north across the Sahara for Europe this afternoon.
There is something glorious about the images that @zoom_earth captures. I especially like the large symmetrical and fairly stationary area of cloud in the North Atlantic in this image.
Today's May 1sy Forecasts for #Ethiopia and #MiddleEast rainfall follow.
Today's May 1sy Forecasts for #Ethiopia and #MiddleEast rainfall follow.
The main action today was in Europe where the strengthening #WestAfricaMonsoon #WMA has today had a spectacular impact on European Weather.
A detailed thread covering those events can be found here.
A detailed thread covering those events can be found here.
Today's North African long range (12 day) rain forecast is taken from the Korean KMA model as it looks to be a lot closer to what we are seeing in the skies today.
Today's #ArabianStorms went in a different direction during the day, but ended up in a familiar place in the end.
Today's #MiddleEast and #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica rain forecasts follow in the thread below.
Today's #MiddleEast and #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica rain forecasts follow in the thread below.
In the animation above you can see a flow of clouds from Sudan to Oman. This flow actually originates to the South West in the Central African Republic. Here you see the CAR to Khartoum leg of the journey.
Over the day this stream of moisture intensified powering storms in Oman, which then split into two streams, one heading north over Iran and one to the East to India.
Today is the 10th consecutive day of extensive thunderstorm activity across #MiddleEast.
Meanwhile the #HornOfAfrica little rainy season which began in the 2nd week of April continues to strengthen.
29 April rainfall forecast reports for the region follows. [Images 29/4 @NASA]
Meanwhile the #HornOfAfrica little rainy season which began in the 2nd week of April continues to strengthen.
29 April rainfall forecast reports for the region follows. [Images 29/4 @NASA]
This thread contains images and animations of today's storm activity. /2
Today's 10-Day forecasts for North Africa [GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and KMA ]are now all expecting rain in West Africa as a #WestAfricaWaterPlume transports Atlantic water across the Sahara to the Mediterranean.
However they have divergent views on intensity and impact in EU/ME.
However they have divergent views on intensity and impact in EU/ME.
A high resolution taken today by the NASA Modis satellite of the #NileBasin and the #MiddleEast is below.
The day started with storms in the East of the #HornOfAfrica #Yemen and the #KSA and got very busy over the day.
28 April Rain forecasts follow:
The day started with storms in the East of the #HornOfAfrica #Yemen and the #KSA and got very busy over the day.
28 April Rain forecasts follow:
This first animation shows the beginning of a plume of water coming across the Sahara from the Atlantic. Forecasts indicate water from this plume will arrive in the #MiddleEast and #HoA in 10 days time.
This animation shows the West African Monsoon and the plume of précipitable water making its away across over the Sahara over the coming week.
An image of thunderstorm activity in the Ethiopian #Abbay #BlueNile basin this afternoon, also showing significant rains South #Yemen and over most of #Somalia.
Todays, 27th April, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast & #HornOfAfrica follow in the thread below.
Todays, 27th April, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast & #HornOfAfrica follow in the thread below.
#ArabianStorms activity was boosted today by moisture flowing from the #Ethiopian monsoon rains in the Ethiopian Highlands, the watershed of the #Abbay #BlueNile catchment.
Below you see a 10-day GFS forecast of accumulated rain over North Africa.
Below you see a 10-day GFS forecast of accumulated rain over North Africa.
This animation shows the flows of moisture from this morning across the Red Sea. A process which is called the "Southern Gate" by Saudi weather entusiasts. #ArabianStorms #Abbay #BlueNile #GERD
Today is shaping up to be a huge day for thunderstorms across the Arabian Peninsula, #NileBasin and Horn of Africa.
#KSA #SaudiArabia #Yemen #Oman #Iraq #Kuwait
#Ethiopia #Sudan #Eritrea #Somalia #SouthSudan #Uganda
#ArabianStorms #DesertRain
#KSA #SaudiArabia #Yemen #Oman #Iraq #Kuwait
#Ethiopia #Sudan #Eritrea #Somalia #SouthSudan #Uganda
#ArabianStorms #DesertRain
Live weather radar of #ArabianStorms across The Arabian Peninsula. /2
Inside the Grand Mosque in Makkah Muslim pilgrims and the @HolyKaaba. /3
26th April #NileBasin #MiddleEast accumulated rainfall forecast update. Today has seen a significant increase in thunderstorm activity from Uganda all the way north to Iran.
#ArabianStorms #GERD #Ethiopia #Egypt #Sudan #HornOfAfrica #KSA #Yemen
[Image: @NASA Worldview.]
#ArabianStorms #GERD #Ethiopia #Egypt #Sudan #HornOfAfrica #KSA #Yemen
[Image: @NASA Worldview.]
26th April 10 Day GFS model accumulated rain forecast across the ME and Africa. /2
26th April animation thread of clouds over the rainy part of the Nile Basin. The Clouds over Sudan, South Sudan and Western Ethiopia all contribute to the flow in the Nile River. /3
This morning's cloud presentation of rain clouds over the #NileBasin watershed area in Ethiopia was busier than usual. The trend is continuing this afternoon with expanding thunderstorm activity over #Yemen #Somaliland, #Djibouti and #SouthSudan
Below you see a @NASA WorldView image of the Nile Basin taken yesterday from Southern Egypt to Lake Victoria.
25th April computer model forecasts for rain across the ME and Africa follow.
#GERD #Ethiopia #KS
[Thanks to @Arab_Storms for live images of today's #ArabianStorms.]
25th April computer model forecasts for rain across the ME and Africa follow.
#GERD #Ethiopia #KS
[Thanks to @Arab_Storms for live images of today's #ArabianStorms.]
25th April 10 Day GFS model accumulated rain forecast across the ME and Africa.
An animation from this afternoon of the rainy part of the Nile Basin. The Clouds over Sudan, South Sudan and Western Ethiopia all contribute to the flow in the Nile River.
The Nile Basin & Arabian Peninsula near sunset 24/4. A line of storms extends from Sana'aa Yemen to the Jordan Border, a distance of 1777 kms.
Clouds cover large portions of Sudan and run along the north red-sea coast from Port Sudan to the Horn.
Region rain forecasts follow.
Clouds cover large portions of Sudan and run along the north red-sea coast from Port Sudan to the Horn.
Region rain forecasts follow.
First an image of accumulated rainfall across the wider North African region showing all the West Africa Monsoon, the engine for life this region earth's cradle for biodiversity, including for humanity.
In the South East Cyclone Jobo is making landfall right now in Tanzania. /2
In the South East Cyclone Jobo is making landfall right now in Tanzania. /2
The are of rain bearing clouds accompanying Jobo will have a significant impact over the coming 10 days.
The latest 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA forecast models are below. They are in agreement. /3
The latest 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA forecast models are below. They are in agreement. /3
After the heroic sacrifices of valiant & ordinary citizens, the leadership of @_AfricanUnion is about to sit in idle complicity as the soldiers in the Transitional Military Council (TMC) launch a violent & bloody #SudanCounterRevolution. #Africans everywhere shd weigh in
Here is the #SitRep: Since the end of last month, the soliders in the TMC have been launched a rolling #InternetShutdown on Khartoum with the design to facilitate a #SudanCounterRevolution by constraining & ultimately cutting off the ability of the protests to co-ordinate
At the beginning of the week, on Monday, 3 June, about 05:00hrs Khartoum time, the TMC sent 1000s of armed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) soldiers, the Janjaweed militia & men in police uniforms using RSF trucks to disperse the sit-in.
#SudanCounterRevolution
#SudanCounterRevolution
Tomorrow, in Addis-Ababa, the Peace & Security Council (PSC) of @_AfricanUnion meets in emergency on the situation in Sudan under. Nigeria will chair it. It's the 1st meeting of any policy organ of the #AU on the epochal situation unfolding in Khartoum
dailytrust.com.ng/nigeria-assume…
dailytrust.com.ng/nigeria-assume…
Sudan matters to the stability of Africa in a way that arguably no other country does. It is a complex, big, fragile country with borders to the most complex & fragile regions of the continent. The potential for regional stability contagion are huge if Sudan is distressed
Sudan is critical to stability in the #Sahel, North Africa, the #GulfOfAden, the #NileBasin, the #GreatLakes, East Africa; the Horn of Africa, Central Africa & #WestAfrica. There's no other #African country whose wellbeing can so ripple through the continent like Sudan.
