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Alright: today's the day.
I'm going to use the #CanSIPS to try and figure out some of the puzzle pieces of the #HurricaneSeason, which starts in 14 days.
First thing to notice: NO El Nino. The equatorial Pacific is coolish, & the Atlantic is warm.
El Nino suppresses hurricanes.🧵
I'm going to use the #CanSIPS to try and figure out some of the puzzle pieces of the #HurricaneSeason, which starts in 14 days.
First thing to notice: NO El Nino. The equatorial Pacific is coolish, & the Atlantic is warm.
El Nino suppresses hurricanes.🧵
Next: there's lots of rising motion over the Indian Ocean (green colour) and sinking motion over the Eastern Pacific (red colour).
That leads to more robust tropical waves coming off Africa, which have a higher chance of developing into tropical cyclones.
That leads to more robust tropical waves coming off Africa, which have a higher chance of developing into tropical cyclones.
So this forecasts suggests a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic.
We have low pressure in the Atlantic, that favours tropical wave development into TC's.
The Bermuda High is weak, so a lot of storms will likely recurve.
But, if said storms make it to the western Atlantic...
We have low pressure in the Atlantic, that favours tropical wave development into TC's.
The Bermuda High is weak, so a lot of storms will likely recurve.
But, if said storms make it to the western Atlantic...
