Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #noestimates

Most recents (8)

Thanks to @DrAgilefant and friends, just got my hands on a thesis that shares some enlightening insights into how common and impactful estimation errors are #NoEstimates
I will be publishing more of what I read in this thread. ImageImage
"Outliers are so frequent that the noise drowns out the signal in the data"
In other words: even if you have data from "actuals", you don't really know if you will be late because the outliers are only visible too late and have a huge impact on delays
#noestimates Image
Kmart may have gone bankrupt (at least in part) due to a failed 1.4bn USD IT project.
One more case where estimation, did not - at all - save a company. Indeed, the errors were so large (both business estimates and SW estimates) that the company went bust
#NoEstimates Image
Read 17 tweets
Estimer les délais/coûts de développement d'un logiciel dans le détail est une perte de temps et d'argent. Les estimations sont toujours fausses du fait de la nature même de l'activité de développement/ingénierie : résoudre des pb uniques ⬇️ #noestimates

alm.developpez.com/actu/293707/Ch…
D'ailleurs à le sujet des estimations dans l'IT, je ne saurais que trop vous recommander l'excellent talk du non moins excellentissime @f_leguedois : "Cessons les estimations" ⬇️ #noestimates

leguedois.fr/cessons-les-es…
Dans la même veine il y a aussi le fameux livre de F. brooks : « le mythe du mois homme », un essai très pertinent la gestion de projet dans le génie logiciel écrit en ... 1975 ! C'est de ce livre que vient l'adage « Neuf femmes ne font pas un enfant en un mois » #noestimates Image
Read 3 tweets
I've noticed people argue for #NoEstimates in a bunch of different ways. Here are some:
Size everything about the same and count them, it'll give you just as good results as estimating.
Split stories as small as you can and then count them, it'll give you just as good results as estimating.
Read 11 tweets
So I was thinking about #noestimates. I'd think we could agree that IF estimates were not needed, we would not use them, because waste. (If not I have something interesting to learn.) And WHEN they're not needed, we'd not use them, I should think?
/1
Now I want to suggest that estimates are /always/ waste. They are not product (I hope) so they are automatically waste. We should want to get rid of them on those grounds.
/2
Now I am somewhat bemused by people actually arguing FOR estimates, rather than saying "well, they are waste, but unfortunately they are often necessary, so we should be good at them". Maybe someone will explain that to me. But that's not my point.
/3
Read 15 tweets
@johncutlefish I’ve managed software development with no estimates. I don’t see how “why estimates” makes sense in that context. #NoEstimates clearly states that I’ve worked without estimates. Like saying “Gluten free” vs “Why gluten?”.
@johncutlefish Or saying “Coke Zero” vs “Why Coke without sugar”. Coke Zero means this drink has #NoSugar. In this context it would be a bit nonsensical to say to say “this drink has Why sugar”. It can have no sugar, or less sugar, or the normal amount, or even extra sugar.
@johncutlefish Once the #NoEstimates hashtag started growing in usage I have used it as marker for a bigger conversation: “Let’s talk about why we do the things we do, with particular attention on the things we do without questioning or verification as to their benefit.”
Read 7 tweets
Trying a new angle for teaching story slicing, one of the biggest struggles for teams attempting #agile ways of working and arguably the most important practice to understand, given we are trying to deliver value to customers in very short cycles. Read on if you are interested.
The way I see it, there are 3 levels of story slicing, each of which is beneficial and necessary to be able to deliver shippable increments consistently in 2 wks or less. I am currently calling them Capability Slicing, Functional Slicing and Implementation Slicing. What are they?
Capability Slicing is the narrowing of a broader capability* into more precise ones, each independently valuable and implementable and, by necessity, smaller in potential scope.

*The story of enabling a human being to achieve something they cannot currently achieve
Read 13 tweets
Okay. I didn’t mean to say everyone wants a one size fits all solution - but please understand that many seem to think that it’s that simple.

1/
I’m not proposing that we need an alternative to blink estimation.

If we have a need to make the sort of decisions that blink estimation can try to inform - then there are plenty of techniquesxpeople are using. If they work well, then simply use them.

2/
What I seek is alternatives to the sort things we currently believe is important to decide.

To me, the important consideration, and the discussion that led to the #NoEstimates hashtag, is about why we limit our ourselves to decisions that require estimates.

3/
Read 5 tweets
I got rejected for a role I was hoping for today. I did 3 interviews with the company. The feedback on where it all came undone was that my view of estimates and roadmaps didn't sit well.
I am really struggling with what to do with this feedback. The company told me, several times over, that they were trying to be more agile.
When I pressed them about what that meant, they said they wanted to enable ownership and empowerment within teams.
Read 18 tweets

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