Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nswvotes
Most recents (10)
Just a note on what happened with sites doing projections on Saturday night that resulted in a number of apparent Labor wins and what seemed a near-certain majority collapsing. The main issue was overconfident assumptions about prepoll swings replicating booth swings. #NSWvotes
Not only is there a general trend of prepolls having a lower swing than booths at this election but the gap happens to have been especially large in some seats where Labor needed it not to be. Holsworthy 5.8% different, Terrigal 4.0%, Ryde 4.4%, Goulburn 3.3% Kiama 3.5%
This makes a difference because the number of prepolls is so huge. In Terrigal there are over 12000 prepolls. If those had swung as much as the booths then Labor would be almost 800 ahead instead of over 200 behind.
Hearing there's silly stuff about #nswvotes being a "landslide". Crazy example from yesterday pm (by which time majority was already unclear):
" Barry O’Farrell defeated Kristina Keneally in a landslide victory similar to Saturday’s."
(culprit is news.com.au )
" Barry O’Farrell defeated Kristina Keneally in a landslide victory similar to Saturday’s."
(culprit is news.com.au )
2011: 64.2% 2PP, 32 govt seats lost, 16.5% swing, 45 seat majority
2023: (approx) 54% 2PP, 12-3 govt seats lost, 6% swing, 1 to 3 seat minority
2023: (approx) 54% 2PP, 12-3 govt seats lost, 6% swing, 1 to 3 seat minority
I was not even looking for this, I found it by accident while looking for next Liberal leader speculation.
High chance now that NSW will get a hung parliament. But it's a vanilla one where it's clear who governs and they just don't quite have a majority, not one of the really close ones that hangs in uncertainty until some indie finishes one of his sentences 17 days later. #NSWvotes
Also ABC 2PP down to 54-46.
Note that the statement from the three indies today means that the Greens' requirements for supply and confidence will become irrelevant.
Tasmania has the last Liberal state government in the country now so does that mean Tasmania is politically conservative? NO!
A thread following #NSWvotes to explain this issue.
#politas
A thread following #NSWvotes to explain this issue.
#politas
1. It's easy to see from federal stats that Tasmania is not "conservative". Tasmania had Labor's highest state 2PP at every federal election from 1993 to 2019 (but not 2022).
2. The Tasmanian Liberal government has been dominated by moderates. The "moderates" have had the numbers and supplied all three Premiers from 2014 onwards. The current Premier, Jeremy Rockliff, is the most moderate so far, to the point of having been conspicuously so.
I detest signs like this and they are the main reason why I cannot support fully fledged optional preferential voting. #NSWvotes
I would amend the NSW electoral act such that parties erecting such signs were fined one million dollars per sign and disqualified from the seat.
The purpose of these signs is to attempt to dupe voters for other candidates into thinking that just voting 1 is in any way a good idea, and deceitfully making the message look somewhat official if the viewer does not look too closely.
#NSWvotes on March 25th.
I've been reviewing all the reports of the #iCare scandal, which happened under Treasurer #Perrottet.
It's VERY interesting reading. Here's extracts from #4corners transcript:
#LNPNeverAgain #LNPCorruptionParty #NSWpol
I've been reviewing all the reports of the #iCare scandal, which happened under Treasurer #Perrottet.
It's VERY interesting reading. Here's extracts from #4corners transcript:
#LNPNeverAgain #LNPCorruptionParty #NSWpol
Transcript extract 3 (DP = Dom Perrottet, now Premier, who says he's good at managing money!!!!!)
#LNPNeverAgain #LNPCorruptionParty #NSWpol #NSWvotes
#LNPNeverAgain #LNPCorruptionParty #NSWpol #NSWvotes
Short 🧵.
A. As @RonniSalt first reported last night, @SenatorHume’s outrageous attack on @Mon4Kooyong via Rupert’s #NewsCorpse stooges for not attending Parliamentary Divisions several days ago is a clear indication Murdoch intends to help Frydenberg win back the seat.
A. As @RonniSalt first reported last night, @SenatorHume’s outrageous attack on @Mon4Kooyong via Rupert’s #NewsCorpse stooges for not attending Parliamentary Divisions several days ago is a clear indication Murdoch intends to help Frydenberg win back the seat.
B. The piece (part-written by Simon Benson’s mate Geoff Chambers, who together hid evidence of Morrison’s multiple ministries last year to better spruik their book) is just 1 in a deluge of recent pieces going after Dr. Ryan & other so-called “Teal” candidates & parliamentarians.
C. Not only was the piece unbelievably insensitive given Dr. Ryan left the House because of the sudden death of a close family member (pic via @RonniSalt), but other news came to light last night revealing Jane Hume herself missed a majority of Parliamentary Divisions last week.
#Morgan NSW (state) 52-48 to Labor
L-NP 35 ALP 32.5 Grn 9.5 ON 6.5 SFF 1.5 AJP 1.5 LC 1.0 LDP 0.5 Teal 0.5 others 11.5
I estimate 51-49 to Labor (bit hard because of high unspecified Others vote which is probably a glorified dunno.)
Teh Narrowing!
#nswvotes
L-NP 35 ALP 32.5 Grn 9.5 ON 6.5 SFF 1.5 AJP 1.5 LC 1.0 LDP 0.5 Teal 0.5 others 11.5
I estimate 51-49 to Labor (bit hard because of high unspecified Others vote which is probably a glorified dunno.)
Teh Narrowing!
#nswvotes
Again the Morgan data is not that recent (it's from January, so about the same vintage as YouGov 56 and Resolve which I had at 54.7.) And Morgan's ALP primary estimates are low cf other polls.
An issue with this Morgan and 2PPs is it has One Nation on the readout everywhere but they've only announced in a relatively small list of seats to this point. So doing preferences off those votes is tricky because many of those voters may actually vote 1 for someone else
Independents currently running at the NSW state election - a thread
-Mark Rodda (Tamworth):
A former member of the National Party, Rodda opposes further privatisation of State-owned assets such as our critical water supplies, storages and infrastructure.
#nswpol #NSWVotes
-Mark Rodda (Tamworth):
A former member of the National Party, Rodda opposes further privatisation of State-owned assets such as our critical water supplies, storages and infrastructure.
#nswpol #NSWVotes
1. Groundhog Day on One Nation preferencing. In 1998, Howard-Abbott urged preferencing One Nation; Costello and Kennett strongly disagreed, saying put ON last, as Labor did.
Then came #qldvotes - Hanson won 11 seats outside Brisbane, and Lib voters fled in Bringing Shane.
Then came #qldvotes - Hanson won 11 seats outside Brisbane, and Lib voters fled in Bringing Shane.
2. So Howard put One Nation last at 1998 #ausvotes. ON didn’t win a seat, and in Blair, where Hanson stood, the Lib won with Labor preferences.
Fast forward - she’s back, and the WA Libs preferenced her above Labor. The Feds were fine with it - Hanson had matured, they said.
Fast forward - she’s back, and the WA Libs preferenced her above Labor. The Feds were fine with it - Hanson had matured, they said.
3. Disaster struck again; the Liberal leader Colin Barnett says the decision cost the Libs several seats after it became a massive election issue.
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
