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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
Polls close in 5 minutes in NY. Some races I'm watching:
-#NYGov (obviously)
-Congress: #NY01, #NY02, #NY03, #NY04, #NY17, #NY18, #NY19, #NY22
-Senate Districts: 1, 7, 9, 23, 37-44, 48, & 50
-Statewide Ballot Prop 1
-3 NYC Ballot Props
Reminder: in New York, absentee ballots received prior to election day are pre-processed and included in unofficial election night tallies!

Those absentees and early voting are likely the first results we're seeing.
BTW I will not be live-tweeting results as they come in. If you want to follow along with results statewide, go to nyenr.elections.ny.gov.

You can also get results quicker and often more reliably from individual county Boards of Elections' websites (depending on the county)
Read 25 tweets
My kid was a #NewYork ICU nurse when the 1st #COVID19 wave hit

She worked w/ 1 mask for 5/6 shifts, wore garbage bags as gown & had to re-use rubber gloves

She literally risked her life every day w/o PPE & @leezeldin told the world that Trump “overdelivered” resources
1/ Image
She worked mandated shifts, held the tablets for patients while their families said goodbye & watched people die droves. She couldn’t see her family for almost 4 mos because I’m immunosuppressed & she was afraid she would kill me

& @leezeldin ignored our pleas for help

2/
Instead @leezeldin jumped on the Trump disinformation bandwagon, the Kushner PPE theft ring & the holding hostage of aid to NY unless @NewYorkStateAG dropped her investigation into the Trump Org

& NYers were willing to literally give their lives rather than

3/
Read 15 tweets
Rep. @hakeemjeffries pays just $200 in property taxes thanks to sweetheart subsidy law, by @LevineJonathan #NY08

nypost.com/2022/01/23/rep…

(2/9)
Tax-Hiking Dem @VoteLandsman Under Fire for Unpaid Taxes by @CAndersonMO @FreeBeacon #OH01

freebeacon.com/democrats/tax-…

(3/9)
Read 9 tweets
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨

The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣

5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.

3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.

🧵👇 Image
Race: #TX34

Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)

Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores

2020 Margin: Biden +15.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente… ImageImage
Race: #CA22

Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)

Republican: Rep. David Valadao

2020 Margin: Biden +13.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe… ImageImage
Read 31 tweets
The AP has called #FL11 GOP primary for Rep. Dan Webster. The longest-serving state legislator in FL history and its first GOP state House speaker since Reconstruction turns back far-right activist Laura Loomer in shockingly tight contest.
Over in GOP primary for open and dark red #OK02, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen leads state Rep. Avery Frix 54.5-45.5. Group affiliated with Club for Growth spent heavily for Brecheen, a former Club fellow.
AP calls #FL13 GOP primary for Trump's candidate, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna. She'll face former DoD official Eric Lynn in seat GOP gerrymandered into 53-46 Trump.
Read 46 tweets
Big shakeup in DCCC's House battlefield this AM. The committee named 12 challengers to its "Red to Blue" program, added 3 members to its "Frontline" program, added 8 new GOP/Dem districts to its "In Play" list, and removed 6 GOP-held districts from its target list.
Read 5 tweets
BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen… Image
Highlights of the 23D-3R plan recommended by commenter "Sean Patrick:"

- Staten Island #NY11 drawn in w/ Lower Manhattan
- New maj-min #NY02 on Long Island
- #NY27 Jacobs (R) merged w/ #NY23 Reed (R)
- #NY22 Tenney (R) put in a D-leaning seat
- #NY03 crosses Long Island Sound
More highlights of the Maloney plan submitted via public comment to NY's redistricting site:

- #NY16 Bowman (D) goes from Bronx to rural Dutchess
- #NY17 Jones (D) goes to the Catskills
- #NY19 Delgado (D) goes to Ithaca/Binghamton
- #NY25 Morelle (D) picks up Buffalo suburbs Image
Read 4 tweets
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
NEW YORK: given what's happening elsewhere in redistricting, it's tough to imagine Dems holding onto the House without aggressively gerrymandering NY (and bypassing the state's new commission).

I basically see two likely scenarios for Dems in NY. A brief thread...
First: the maximally aggressive play would be to try to convert the current 19D-8R map to 23D-3R. The example below eliminates Reed's #NY23 and flips #NY01 Zeldin, #NY11 Malliotakis and #NY22 Tenney from Trump to Biden 10+ districts.
In this scenario, Dems' approach to #NY24 Katko is a bit of a bank shot. The goal would be to dislodge Katko from his Syracuse base enough to make him vulnerable in a primary from the right, but keep #NY24 blue enough that Dems could win it in the general.
Read 8 tweets
In 2020, Republican congressman Andrew Garbarino won #NY02, succeeding Pete King, by almost 7% against Democratic candidate Jackie Gordon.

Here's a map breaking down the margin of victory by precinct, as well as Garbarino & Gordon's performances by party line:
At the same time, in the presidential general election, Trump beat Biden in #NY02 by just over 4%.

Once again, here's a map breaking down the margin of victory by precinct, as well as each candidate's performance by party line in the district:
#NY02, on Long Island, takes in parts of Nassau and Suffolk counties.

The district will likely change substantially in redistricting, as state legislative Democrats can easily draw an additional Democratic-leaning seat on Long Island.
Read 5 tweets
In 2020, Republican congressman Lee Zeldin won re-election in #NY01 by almost 10% against Democrat Nancy Goroff.

Here's a map breaking down the margin of victory by precinct, as well as Zeldin & Goroff's performance by party line: Image
At the same time, in the presidential general election, Trump beat Biden in #NY01 by a little over 4%.

Once again, here's a map breaking down the margin of victory by precinct, as well as each candidate's performance by party line in the district: Image
#NY01, out on Long Island, is located entirely within Suffolk County.

The district will likely change quite substantially in redistricting, as state legislative Democrats can easily draw an additional Democratic-leaning seat on Long Island. Image
Read 5 tweets
New York is poised to lose a seat. But if Dems end up drawing the map, it could be their biggest weapon of the redistricting cycle.

They could merge Stefanik/Tenney (if Tenney's lead holds in #NY22) and severely threaten other Rs, converting a 19D-8R map into 23D-3R (below).
Upstate: under the scenario (above) I've heard floated...

1. #NY27 Jacobs (R) would be axed
2. A safe new Syracuse/Utica #NY22 for Anthony Brindisi (D)
3. A new Ithaca/Kingston district, #NY12, for state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)
4. All current Dem incumbents get Biden +10 seats
One other feature of this play for Upstate: Dems would put Rep. John Katko (R)'s home in Camillus in a Syracuse-less #NY24 (purple), but keep it winnable for themselves in case Katko retires/loses a primary.
Read 8 tweets
We have all seen how busy @RepLeeZeldin @leezeldin has been lately.

Busy not with issues important to #NY01 or his constituents, but defending Donald John Trump against the impeachment inquiry.

200 Tweets defending, deflecting & deriding while OUR issues receive ZERO attention.
As further evidence of Mr. Zeldin’s preoccupation with Donald John Trump’s impeachment at the expense of the people he represents and their issues, we present his latest OpEd offering in @RiverheadLOCAL:
Well you say, at least Mr. Zeldin (after four State of Emergency declarations) is paying attention to an issue of significance for East End residents.

True, but a closer look reveals that Mr. Zeldin (or his staff) did not write a large swath of the OpEd.

It was plagiarized.
Read 16 tweets
Welcome back to another episode of #DeconstructingLee.

In this episode we will delve into @RepLeeZeldin @leezeldin and his amazing run of #FelonPhotoOps.

Short of a visit to Rikers, how does a man end up being photographed with so many fraudsters, felons & the newly indicted?
In the beginning, there was Ed Walsh.

Ed just finished serving 2 years for his conviction on wire fraud & theft of government services.

Ed liked to play golf, gamble and politick while ‘working’ his job as corrections officer.

@RepLeeZeldin was Walsh’s protege:
In case you would like to further explore just how seriously Ed breeched the public trust, here is the DOJ press release.

@leezeldin’s mentor ladies and gentlemen!

justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/e…
Read 32 tweets
This will be part of an ongoing series #ExposingLeeZeldin revealing the pablum, misdirection & false narratives that @RepLeeZeldin @leezeldin sends in response to constituent inquiries.

Our first letter is about securing our elections from foreign influence.
We will skip the first paragraph, though from a precision standpoint constituents contacted the Congressman’s office, not him personally.

Graph 2 is slice of unremittingly vague verbiage devoid of proper citation or source for the “facts” being presented.
In other words, “DHS told me they are doing a bunch of work to fix the problem and I accept what they have said.”

The IIS - AC sounds great except if the group is only scanning 32 states that leaves 32% of the states unprotected.

That cannot be good.
Read 48 tweets
New York #NY #Midterms2018
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Websites, Twitter
& Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
#VoteBlueNY
Democratic Candidate for Governor of New York
Andrew Cuomo
andrewcuomo.com
@andrewcuomo
vs GOP Marc Molinaro
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
Democratic Candidate for Lt Governor of New York
Kathy Hochul
kathyhochul.com
@KathyHochul
vs GOP Julie Killian
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
Read 38 tweets
New York #Midterms2018
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Website & Twitter Links.
Plus Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
Hey #NewYork
VOTE on NOVEMBER 6, 2018
THREAD below of All Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links ( Registration, Absentee & Poll Worker
But, ALSO,
VOTE on SEPTEMBER 13 in #PrimaryElections for State & Local Offices
#VoteBlue
VOTER REGISTRATION in #NewYork
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue

THREAD
Read 32 tweets
Hey #NewYork #NY
You need to REGISTER by FRIDAY, JUNE 1st!
to VOTE in your JUNE 26th #PrimaryElection
THREAD below of ALL Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links
(including Voter Registration, Absentee & being a Poll Worker)
VOTER REGISTRATION in #NewYork
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue
ABSENTEE VOTING in #NewYork
#Absentee #NY
Deadline to apply for JUNE 26, 2018 #PrimaryElection
is JUNE 25
Online Fillable Form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…

Send or Deliver to elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Military? elections.ny.gov/VotingMilitary…

#Midterms2018 #VoteBlue

THREAD
Read 32 tweets

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