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There are 18 Republican House Members representing Districts which Biden won in 2020:
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
#NY17 was a GOP flip; #NY18 a Dem hold both due to voters who Orthodox Jewish. #NY19 was a GOP flip due in part to Orthodox Jews.
Trump won 90% of this vote in 2020
Anyone who thinks running from Trump helps @HouseGOP's is clueless. It's passive at best; a negative at worst.
Trump won 90% of this vote in 2020
Anyone who thinks running from Trump helps @HouseGOP's is clueless. It's passive at best; a negative at worst.
IN FACT: Trump's work on prison reform and his overall friendly approach to Orthodox Jews were used in favor of Republicans; certainly in #NY17. A leading Grand Rabbi in one of these districts criticized his flock post election as to how Trumpism overtook the Orthodox community!
In fact, Thursday AM, @lawler4ny (who won by a few thousand votes due to HUGE support among Orthodox Jews) said on CNN that the GOP should move on from Trump in '24.
At night he was at a Kosher Deli. He took incoming for saying it.
I was there. I heard it. From many people.
At night he was at a Kosher Deli. He took incoming for saying it.
I was there. I heard it. From many people.
Congressman-elect @lawler4ny is leading @spmaloney by 3,250 in #NY17. Lawler carried his home base of Rockland county by 10.1. Biden carried the county by 1.7% in 2020.
Check out my map of the preliminary county results here: api.mapbox.com/styles/v1/grub…
Check out my map of the preliminary county results here: api.mapbox.com/styles/v1/grub…
In Orthodox Jewish-heavy EDs, @lawler4ny received 12,852 votes to @spmaloney's 5,206, despite a couple of large Hasidic groups backing Maloney. This map shows the concentration of Orthodox Jewish voters by ED in Rockland county: api.mapbox.com/styles/v1/grub…
The village of New Square is the only Orthodox Jewish neighborhood which went for Maloney, 2,627 to 219. Outside of the villages of New Square and Kaser, Lawler carried the Orthodox Jewish vote by 9,895 votes.
NEW in #NY17: Mike Lawler’s campaign says DCCC Chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded to him in a call.
Maloney is scheduled to hold a presser at the DCCC office in less than half an hour.
Maloney concedes, then, as DCCC Chair, talks about House Dem successes last night and says “I can’t with 100% certainty tell you who holds the House majority.”
“If we fall a little short… we’re going to know that we gave it all and we beat the spread.”
“If we fall a little short… we’re going to know that we gave it all and we beat the spread.”
Polls close in 5 minutes in NY. Some races I'm watching:
-#NYGov (obviously)
-Congress: #NY01, #NY02, #NY03, #NY04, #NY17, #NY18, #NY19, #NY22
-Senate Districts: 1, 7, 9, 23, 37-44, 48, & 50
-Statewide Ballot Prop 1
-3 NYC Ballot Props
-#NYGov (obviously)
-Congress: #NY01, #NY02, #NY03, #NY04, #NY17, #NY18, #NY19, #NY22
-Senate Districts: 1, 7, 9, 23, 37-44, 48, & 50
-Statewide Ballot Prop 1
-3 NYC Ballot Props
Reminder: in New York, absentee ballots received prior to election day are pre-processed and included in unofficial election night tallies!
Those absentees and early voting are likely the first results we're seeing.
Those absentees and early voting are likely the first results we're seeing.
BTW I will not be live-tweeting results as they come in. If you want to follow along with results statewide, go to nyenr.elections.ny.gov.
You can also get results quicker and often more reliably from individual county Boards of Elections' websites (depending on the county)
You can also get results quicker and often more reliably from individual county Boards of Elections' websites (depending on the county)
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67.
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
Thread: I live in #NY17. I have worked on winning and losing campaigns here and elsewhere that have a large number of voters who are Orthodox Jewish.
FIRST: POTUS Biden called the Grand Rabbis of Kaser, New Square asking for support for @spmaloney. Dunno yet about @KathyHochul.
FIRST: POTUS Biden called the Grand Rabbis of Kaser, New Square asking for support for @spmaloney. Dunno yet about @KathyHochul.
2/ I don't do political campaigns in recent years due to my work with OJPAC. But from what I follow up close, @lawler4ny won his seat in the NY Assembly in 2020 by a margin of a few thousand votes in an election year where 18,000 voters who are Orthodox Jewish turnout countywide.
3/ The 18,000-strong vote in 2020 in #NY17 was almost exclusively for Trump and this includes 3K or so votes in New Square and 3,500 or so in Kaser (and their affiliated members in surrounding areas).
Now that the seat is a toss up, a move by leadership in either place is key!
Now that the seat is a toss up, a move by leadership in either place is key!
🚨 RACE WATCH 🚨: @CookPolitical moves #NY17 (home to @dccc Chair @RepSeanMaloney) from "lean D" ➡ "toss-up"
Why is @dccc Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in such danger? His GOP challenger @lawler4ny responds:
@BillHemmer @DanaPerino
Why is @dccc Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in such danger? His GOP challenger @lawler4ny responds:
@BillHemmer @DanaPerino
(1/3) "The amazing thing about this district is about 50% of households in it have a cop, a firefighter, a veteran, or a first responder living in it. And when you talk about crime being the top issue at 28% and inflation right behind it, that’s what voters are concerned about…
(2/3) ... @SeanPatrickMaloney – as the chair of the @dccc – owns this. He voted 100% lockstep with @TeamPelosi and @POTUS. He hasn’t been in the district. He’s been gallivanting around the globe raising money in #Paris and #Geneva...
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
The AP has called #FL11 GOP primary for Rep. Dan Webster. The longest-serving state legislator in FL history and its first GOP state House speaker since Reconstruction turns back far-right activist Laura Loomer in shockingly tight contest.
Over in GOP primary for open and dark red #OK02, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen leads state Rep. Avery Frix 54.5-45.5. Group affiliated with Club for Growth spent heavily for Brecheen, a former Club fellow.
AP calls #FL13 GOP primary for Trump's candidate, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna. She'll face former DoD official Eric Lynn in seat GOP gerrymandered into 53-46 Trump.
Quick hits on the new NY Congressional map: this will realistically swing between 16D-10R and 20D-6R, with each party having a couple other longer-shot targets. The key changes from Monday are a safer Malliotakis seat and splitting Suffolk by North/South Shore instead of E/W.
After being tantalized with the possibility of a compact South Brooklyn seat, the court's final map is somehow even worse for the Orthodox Jewish community than the first draft. Boro Park is split precisely down the middle, eliminating its influence.
With the huge exception of South Brooklyn, everything else south of I-84 is about as clean and no-nonsense as you could ask for. But the Upstate lines are still a mess, as Cervas's attempt to draw a "competitive" #NY19 creates a seat that runs from Watertown to Niagara.
Mondaire Jones has a difficult choice right now, and I don't envy him. DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney selfishly put Jones in a bad spot by immediately saying he'd run for #NY17 instead of #NY18 as soon as NY's new draft map came out. Now Jones must decide between #NY17 & #NY16
Assuming the map is finalized as-is, Jones would represent 3x as much of #NY17 as Maloney. He's also vastly more progressive than SPM, one of the most centrist Dems in the House. Jones even had more cash on hand than Maloney as of 3/31! $2.9 mil vs. $2.1 dailykos.com/stories/2022/4…
Of course, Maloney has access to lots of $, so Jones would be taking on a huge fight. But Maloney didn't fare well the last time he ran in a primary against more progressive foes: He took just 25% and finished third in the primary for AG in 2018 ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.htm…
BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen…
COVID-19 rates are soaring across this country and across #NY17. We must do everything we can to keep ourselves and our communities safe.
That's why today, at the advice of the Capitol Attending Physician, I received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine.
That's why today, at the advice of the Capitol Attending Physician, I received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine.
I’m doing this now to instill confidence in the vaccine. I’m aware that there is significant skepticism towards the vaccine, especially in the Black and brown communities that have been most impacted by the virus. I completely understand.
We have work to do to counteract the devastating legacy of racism in our medical system. That's why I'm committed to ensuring the vaccine reaches our most vulnerable communities and our essential workers as quickly as possible.
House Democratic leadership for 117th Congress continue today.3rd term #CA31 Rep Pete Aguilar defeated 3rd full term #IL02 Rep Robin Kelly 148-82 for Caucus Vice Chair,succeeding Katherine Clark who was elected yesterday as Asst Speaker.Aguilar lost to Clark for the post in 2018.
Incoming House Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Pete Aguilar (CA) following his leadership election: "Under the leadership of Speaker Pelosi and the Biden-Harris Administration, House Democrats will work together..."
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print&Share)& Donations Links
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
Mega-THREAD
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print&Share)& Donations Links
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
Mega-THREAD
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
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#PostcardsforAmerica
