Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #obrfiscalrisks
Most recents (4)
The Government’s elevated debt stock is both a product of past fiscal risks and a source of future risks to the public finances. Two-thirds of the 80% of GDP increase in debt since 2000 happened in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic. 
Despite the stock of debt reaching its highest level since the early 1960s, the cost of servicing that debt remains near historical lows thanks to falling interest rates.
#OBRfiscalrisks
#OBRfiscalrisks
But there are no guarantees that interest rates will remain low, so in Chapter 4, we test the impact of different factors that could push up government borrowing costs.
#OBRfiscalrisks
obr.uk/frr/fiscal-ris…
#OBRfiscalrisks
obr.uk/frr/fiscal-ris…
The global economic downturn brought about by the pandemic has been the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s. World GDP fell by 3.3% and almost 90% of economies experienced a decline in output in 2020.
#OBRfiscalrisks
#OBRfiscalrisks
The UK experienced one of the deepest recessions among advanced economies, with output falling almost 10% in 2020. This was due to being relatively hard hit by the virus, spending more time under stricter restrictions, and our large share of social consumption in output.
However, the economy also proved to be surprisingly adaptable and resilient as the pandemic unfolded, with each successive lockdown taking less off output.
#OBRfiscalrisks
#OBRfiscalrisks
What risks does #climatechange pose for government finances? 🌍
OBR Economists Rachel and Tom explain some of the risks we’ve considered in chapter 3 of our 2021 #OBRfiscalrisks report 📗
Read more: obr.uk/frr/fiscal-ris…
OBR Economists Rachel and Tom explain some of the risks we’ve considered in chapter 3 of our 2021 #OBRfiscalrisks report 📗
Read more: obr.uk/frr/fiscal-ris…
The Government has committed to achieving net zero by 2050. Since 1990, the UK has cut its CO2 emissions by 243 million tonnes, more than any other G7 economy and faster than the EU average.
#OBRfiscalrisks
#OBRfiscalrisks
But the UK will need to cut emissions by another 365 million tonnes over the next 30 years to reach net zero emissions by 2050. The reductions will need to come mainly from decarbonising power, industry, buildings, and transport.
#OBRfiscalrisks
#OBRfiscalrisks
Today’s @obr report on the dangers of a no-deal, no-transition #Brexit should be a massive wake up call to anyone thinking this would be just another political event.
If you doubt this is a cliff edge, these negative statistics paint a pretty stark picture... #obrfiscalrisks
If you doubt this is a cliff edge, these negative statistics paint a pretty stark picture... #obrfiscalrisks
No-deal means £30billion pa black hole from next year+ as tax revenues fall, threatening vital public services. And 12% of GDP onto national debt by 2023. @OBR_UK add: “There is no war-chest or pot of money set aside” and this is a “relatively benign” scenario “compared to some”!
Value of £pound falls 10% because of no-deal weaker competitiveness & inflation rises as a result. An immediate hike in tariff & non-tariff barriers hits UK exports. Pensions are hit by adverse market reaction in equity prices.
Wages & salaries 2.6% lower at the start of 2024..
Wages & salaries 2.6% lower at the start of 2024..
