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SNEAK PREVIEW: Complete Path Enumeration (CPE) for CRM #dosefinding designs

Featuring a vignette for #Rstats package #precautionary update v0.2-3, currently under review by CRAN. 1/

precisionmethods.guru/DTAT/CPE/MCSE-…
This demonstrates the feasibility of a programme I’ve set forth, for the ‘exact’ simulation of ANY dose-escalation design.

Influenced by @MarkusTriska‘s exacting perspective on ’exactness’, however, I now use the more precise term ‘MCSE-free’. 2/
@MarkusTriska ‘MCSE-free’ in turn alludes to the title of recent work by Thomas M. Braun, from which I adapt my application.

(Braun’s mean-field approach truly can be called ‘simulation-free’, whereas I DO simulate the trials—just without Monte Carlo error.) 3/
Read 21 tweets
NEW #DTAT paper: What Were They Thinking? Pharmacologic priors implicit in a choice of 3+3 dose-escalation design arxiv.org/abs/2012.05301

“The unexamined trial is not worth conducting.”

— Socrates 1/

This latest #DTAT paper @arxiv sets out to reverse-engineer the unstated (∴ unexamined!) pharmacologic intuitions that underlie the #trialsafety claim implicit in the decision to conduct a dose-escalation trial. 2/ Image
Prior elicitation from doctors has never been easy, especially about #pharmacology or the future of the #Daleks: 3/

Read 39 tweets

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