Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #or06
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New: There are 32 House races the AP hasn't called yet, but they aren't all created equal. My best (reported) guess about which way they're breaking, and whether Dems have any shot at the majority. politico.com/news/2022/11/1β¦
Breaking it down, 2 of them are in D-vs.-D Calif. races, 2 GOP candidates have conceded, Dems are favored in 2 RCV tabulations. Then there are a dozen-plus other races where there's a clear favorite. politico.com/news/2022/11/1β¦
GOP House math coming into focus:
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
π§΅π»π―πΉπ¬π¨π«: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support πππππππ ππππ‘πππ π€βπ πππππππ πππππ‘ππππ (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also π π’πππππ‘π πππππππ π€ππππ π€βπ πππ‘ πππππ‘ππππ ).
#PASen is extremely unlikely to resolve tonight. Let's do a thread on the races you may have missed in the meantime!
#NC1: Sandy Smith (R) vs. Don Davis (D); D's get preferred matchup in D+3, R-trending seat.
#NC4: Valerie Foushee (D) wins Safe D open seat
#NC1: Sandy Smith (R) vs. Don Davis (D); D's get preferred matchup in D+3, R-trending seat.
#NC4: Valerie Foushee (D) wins Safe D open seat
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! Itβs the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
The two new proposed congressional maps for Oregon are now up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-β¦
The first map, Plan A, was proposed by Democrats, and you can see why. It would make a 5-1 map quite likely. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-β¦
The second map, Plan B, was proposed by Republicans. It would keep the competitiveness of the current districts AND make the new #OR06 swingy as well. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-β¦
OREGON: is gaining a sixth district in 2022, which means all five current districts below will need to shed 117k+ residents to make way for #OR06. A quick thread...
Dems have held a 4-1 seat lead since 1996, and control the redistricting trifecta. But, they also have a geography problem: Oregon's Dems are so clustered in Portland that if you were to draw a map based on compactness alone (below), Rs might have a shot at winning 3/6 seats.
In addition, Oregon has a rare tradition of bipartisan cooperation on maps. Earlier this year, Speaker Tina Kotek (D) struck a deal to give Rs equal power on the state house redistricting committee, though many Ds insist they can still ultimately pass a map w/o GOP support.
Oregon is poised to gain a House seat for the first time since 1982. Dems face a dilemma: with so many of their votes concentrated in Portland, how can they safely stretch their 4D-1R lead into 5D-1R? Well, here's one creative way they might try:
In the hypothetical above, all districts except #OR02 voted for Biden by 10%+. But, the new #OR06 extends from southeast Portland to Umatilla. And, #OR04 crosses the Cascades from Eugene to Bend. I'm not so sure courts would look fondly on this map?
The crazy thing about Oregon: if you were drawing a map w/ compactness principles as your only goal, you might end up with a map where 4/6 districts voted for Trump in '16, as shown below:
