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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
Did you know that:

A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?

B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?

🧵👇 Image
Co-sponsor: TED BUDD

Race: #NCSen

Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…
Co-sponsor: MIKE GARCIA

Race: #CA27

Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…
Read 14 tweets
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨

The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣

5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.

3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.

🧵👇 Image
Race: #TX34

Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)

Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores

2020 Margin: Biden +15.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente… ImageImage
Race: #CA22

Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)

Republican: Rep. David Valadao

2020 Margin: Biden +13.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe… ImageImage
Read 31 tweets
Let me clarify some stuff from earlier today.
We can draw some straight lines between...
1⃣ this @nytimes article
⬇️
2⃣the Deputy Acting AG Donoghue's notes
⬇️
3⃣ the #complicit actions of certain #Republican #Pennsylvania lawmakers

1/?

nytimes.com/2021/07/30/us/…
@nytimes First, let's look at those notes from Acting Deputy AG Donoghue.

Folks have been asking who and what he's talking about. I think that this section is about #PA10's @RepScottPerry and #Pennsylvania state lawmaker @SenMastriano.

2/? Image
@nytimes @RepScottPerry @SenMastriano More interesting is this ADAG Donoghue note about "205K votes - more than xxx xxx voters - PA"

Part is illegible, but he's talking about a debunked theory that there were more votes placed in #Pennsylvania than there were registered voters. Again, this has been debunked.

3/? Image
Read 7 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print&Share)& Donations Links
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
Mega-THREAD Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 51 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Read 51 tweets
It's #ElectionSeason! #Election2020 has begun!
#EarlyVoting already in:
IL MI MN MO NJ PA SD VA VT WY
Just to get you in the mood, here's a THREAD of the specifics on HOW TO #VoteByMail in each State AND all your Dem Candidates for House, Senate, AG, Governor & SoS
#VoteReady Image
Read 14 tweets
PENNSYLVANIA Democratic Candidates
#PA1 #PA2 #PA3 #PA4 #PA5 #PA6 #PA7 #PA8 #PA9 #PA10 #PA11 #PA12 #PA13 #PA14 #PA15 #PA16 #PA17 #PA18 & AG
Postcards & Links for each Candidate
Follow & Support!
#Congress2020

THREAD #PostcardsforAmerica
All 50 States here postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
PA1 Democratic Candidate
Pennsylvania 1st Congressional District
#PA1 #PA01
Running against Brian Fitzpatrick
Christina Finello
Borough Councilwoman, Attorney & Psychologist
@FinelloForPA
finelloforcongress.com
Donate secure.actblue.com/donate/christi…
THREAD #Congress2020 #HoldTheHouse
PA1 Democratic Candidate
Pennsylvania 1st Congressional District
#PA1 #PA01
Running against Brian Fitzpatrick
Christina Finello
Borough Councilwoman, Attorney & Psychologist
@FinelloForPA
finelloforcongress.com
Donate secure.actblue.com/donate/christi…
THREAD #Congress2020 #HoldTheHouse
Read 23 tweets
Check it out!
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
With Postcards & Links to Follow & Support!
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets & Posts for each Candidate here
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums: facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Read 51 tweets
All hands on deck!
On #PostcardsforAmerica website
All Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Links (& Postcards) to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 50 tweets
Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Postcards & Links to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

& follow @NDLB2020 Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 50 tweets
19% of precincts reporting (all in Luzerne County) in #PA08 GOP primary to take on Dem Rep. Matt Cartwright. Former Trump admin official Jim Bognet leads 43-19
16% of precincts reporting in #PA01 Dem primary to take on Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, and Christina Finello leads 76-24. She became front runner after a better-funded opponent dropped out after filing deadline
48% of precincts reporting in #IN05 primaries. On Dem side, Christina Hale's lead has expanded to 39-27. For GOP, Victoria Spartz still up 39-19
Read 62 tweets
Here is your 🚨 Super Junesday mega-thread🚨 with all the races @businessinsider covering today with results from our friends at @DecisionDeskHQ. Here’s our main post with a presidential primary map and links to the down-ballot races we’re watching:
businessinsider.com/june-2-preside…
First, there’s the Democratic primary for #IASen, where DSCC-backed Theresa Greenfield is facing Mike Franken, Eddie Mauro, and Kimberly Graham to run against GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. If no candidate gets >35% of the vote, the race goes to a party convention businessinsider.com/iowa-senate-de…
The most-watched House primary today is in #IA04, where embattled GOP Rep. Steve King — after losing his committee assignments and being largely shunned by his party — is facing a well-funded primary challenge from GOP State Sen. Randy Feenstra businessinsider.com/steve-king-vs-…
Read 10 tweets
Welcome to the Pennsylvania member of Congress Tracking Report for the week ending March 22, 2020. We are doing things a bit differently this week. All of our content centers on the #COVID19 #coronavirus pandemic.
#MoCTrack 1/28
demcastusa.com/2020/03/22/pen…
First up, we have a recap of HR 6201, the #FamiliesFirst bill that was passed on Wednesday by the Senate and signed into law.
#MoCTrack 2/28
npr.org/2020/03/19/818…
If you have a chance, check out the #MoCTrack recap of the #FamiliesFirst action in the Senate. There were three attempts to amend the bill (1 good, 2 awful), and it is worth seeing ow our lawmakers voted on those efforts.
#MoCTrack 3/28
bit.ly/3do6mnB
Read 28 tweets
Welcome to MoCTrack for January 5, 2020.

This is our 2019 year in review for all of the tidbits you need about last year’s legislative action. Congress is heading back to DC this week, so now is the time to see how they did last year!
#MoCTrack 1/27

demcastusa.com/2020/01/05/pen…
The great folks at @538Politics provide our Trump Tracker numbers, showing how often each MoCs vote with #IMPOTUS.

We took all those 2019 numbers and show you each lawmaker’s high and low point, as well as their 2019 average.

#MoCTrack 2/27
bit.ly/2QP6H8v
@538politics First up a rundown of 2019 in legislation, by the numbers.
#MoCTrack 3/27
bit.ly/2QP6H8v
Read 28 tweets
Who had access to the #SCIF for the Impeachment Inquiry interviews
but stormed it anyway just for show & risking national security in the process?
#13GOP
And who are the Democratic Candidates running against them?
#VoteThemAllOut

THREAD
Who had access to the #SCIF for the #ImpeachmentInquiry but stormed it anyway just for show? #13GOP
1/13 Paul Gosar #AZ4
Democratic Challengers in Arizona District 4:
Delina DiSanto
delinadisanto.com
@delina4az
Stu Starky
stustarky2020.com
@StuartStarky

#VoteThemOut
Who had access to the #SCIF for the #ImpeachmentInquiry but stormed it anyway just for show? #13GOP
2/13 Ken Buck #CO4
Democratic Challenger in Colorado District 4:
Isaac McCorkle
USMC Veteran
ike4co.com
@Ike4CO

#VoteThemAllOut
Read 17 tweets
Welcome to the Pennsylvania Member of Congress Tracking Report for the week ending 09/08/19. This is our last recess report before we get back to normal business, as our MoCs are returning to Washington today.
#MoCTrack 1/24
bit.ly/2kp2V9U
If you’d like a reminder of where things left off when our MoCs left for recess, check out the Trump Tracker numbers, courtesy of the find folks at @538Politics. It gauges how much your MoC votes in line with the Trump Admin's agenda.
#MoCTrack 2/24
bit.ly/2k6yBk2
@538politics The rest of this report is a bit different than our normal offering.

We’ve pulled together info on official website statements, public appearances, town halls, tweets and quotes that each of our 20 MoCs made over the recess.
#MoCTrack 3/24
bit.ly/2kp2DzQ
Read 24 tweets
Pennsylvania Republicans think they can condescend to young people, but those meddling #youthvote kids won’t let them get away with it. Here’s who we’re ready to put in office. (1/9) #PApol
#PAGov: Tom Wolf, who opposes right-to-work laws and supports a rapid transition to clean energy deserves re-election for governor. NXTGN.US/fka
#PASen: Bob Casey serves Pennsylvanians admirably in the Senate. He supports universal background checks for firearms and will continue standing up to Trump. NXTGN.US/fkb
Read 9 tweets
Why the slight shift? Let me try to explain what we've observed move post-Labor Day. There are basically 3 large buckets of House races we're watching...
1) Vulnerable Rs in upscale, suburban, Clinton-won "Whole Foods" districts like #VA10 Comstock, #KS03 Yoder, #CO06 Coffman, #MN03 Paulsen, #CA45 Walters, #NJ07 Lance, etc. These Rs are mostly trailing & their numbers haven't gotten any better recently.
2) Competitive races in redder, working-class districts that Trump won by double digits in '16, such as #IL12 Bost, #MN08 OPEN, #NY22 Tenney, #WV03 OPEN, etc. Overall, things have slightly improved in "Trump zones" for Rs, w/ notable exceptions in districts like #KS02 & #ME02.
Read 5 tweets
11 GOPers acting like Putin's representatives #VoteThemOut:
1. Mark Meadows, chair of the hard-right "Freedom Caucus" (former Tea Party). Ethics scandal: usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
His opponent is Philip Price @Price4WNC #NorthCarolina #NC11 price4wnc.org
#SaveDemocracy
11 GOPers acting like Putin's reps, trying to "impeach" Rod Rosenstein:
#VoteThemAllOut
2. Jim Jordan, #GymJordan named in #OSU #OhioState sex abuse lawsuit rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
His opponent is Janet Garrett. She will represent #Ohio #OH04 @Janet4OH  janetgarrett.com
11 RW GOPers attacking US law enforcement instead of investigating Russia's attack on America. #VoteThemAllOut

3. Matt Gaetz of #Florida is "known for doing some pretty despicable things" dailydot.com/layer8/matt-ga…
Faces a primary challenge August 28. #FL01 ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_1s…
Read 16 tweets
While it's difficult to imagine any of these Republicans facing competitive races in November, one possible exception stands out: Scott Perry (#PA10).

kbzk.com/story/38733743…
Perry's #PA10 backed Trump by 52-43 in 2016, but backed Romney by a smaller 7% in 2012, and McCain by ~2% in '08. @ppppolls found Perry leading Democrat George Scott by only 45-41 back in June: dailykos.com/stories/2018/6…
Democrat George Scott –– a candidate with an interesting bio (veteran and pastor) –– raised a credible amount (~$240K) in the second quarter for a very unheralded race.

You never know.
Read 3 tweets
#PA10 fundraising (4/26-6/30 only):

▪️George Scott (D): $242,000 raised; $208,000 cash-on-hand: docquery.fec.gov/pdf/501/201807…
▪️Scotty Perry (R-inc): $188,000 raised; $554,000 cash-on-hand: docquery.fec.gov/pdf/347/201807…
(The redrawn #PA10 is very much a reach district for Dems –– it voted for Trump by ~9% –– but George Scott, a veteran and pastor, has an interesting bio. The biggest knock against him, up 'til now, was his fundraising. This is a respectable showing.)
Back in June, George Scott released a @ppppolls survey showing him trailing incumbent #PA10 GOP Rep. Scott Perry by only 45-41.

Dare to dream?
Read 3 tweets
Hey #Pennsylvania!
Here’s All the Democratic Candidates (#Primary Winners) for #Midterms2018!
With website & voter info links! Includes info on New vs Old Districts.
#PA01 #PA02 #PA03 #PA04 #PA05 #PA06 #PA07 #PA08 #PA09 #PA10 #PA11 #PA12 #PA13 #PA14 #PA15 #PA16 #PA17 #PA18
VOTER REGISTRATION in Pennsylvania
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #Midterms2018
Register by Oct 6 here: pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/VoterReg…
Check Registration here: pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/VoterReg…
Find where you Vote here: pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/PollingP…
#BlueWavePA
Hey #Pennsylvania!
Here’s All the Democratic Candidates (#Primary Winners) for #Midterms2018!
With website & voter info links! Includes info on New vs Old Districts.
#PA01 #PA02 #PA03 #PA04 #PA05 #PA06 #PA07 #PA08 #PA09 #PA10 #PA11 #PA12 #PA13 #PA14 #PA15 #PA16 #PA17 #PA18
Read 31 tweets
Hey #Pennsylvania you get to vote in Primaries on MAY 15, 2018
For Congress & Lt. Gov
THREAD of ALL Democratic Candidates below.
#PA01 #PA02 #PA03 #PA04 #PA05 #PA06 #PA07 #PA08 #PA09 #PA10 #PA11 #PA12 #PA13 #PA14 #PA15 #PA16 #PA17 #PA18
Voter Registration Deadline Apr 16, 2018
Pennsylvania Primary Election MAY 15, 2018
Registration Deadline Apr 16, 2018
Register here: pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/VoterReg…
Check Registration here: pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/VoterReg…
Find where you Vote here: pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/PollingP…
#Pennsylvania Redrawn District Maps #PADistricts
#NOMoreIncumbents
What is Where Now?
THREAD
Be sure & utilize this newfound fairness and VOTE!
Register here: pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/VoterReg…
Form for Absentee here: votespa.com/en-us/Document…
Next Election: Primaries May 15, 2018
Read 27 tweets

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