Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #pandemicCovid19
Most recents (3)
Q: Why do all the models tell us something different about what to expect from the #PandemicCovid19?
A: It is complicated, but can be summed up well in this article by 538.
A: It is complicated, but can be summed up well in this article by 538.
TL; DR there are three primary factors:
1) Exponential growth makes models have great variation (think the estimates of 200,000 deaths vs. 2 million deaths);
2) There are many unknown factors (such as regarding the true rates of infected persons); and
1) Exponential growth makes models have great variation (think the estimates of 200,000 deaths vs. 2 million deaths);
2) There are many unknown factors (such as regarding the true rates of infected persons); and
3) Societies are adaptive (so we are constantly measuring in a society that is changing based on the trajectory of the pandemic).
In sum, it is difficult to make a model and all models have uncertainty. We just want the least uncertain model we can get...
In sum, it is difficult to make a model and all models have uncertainty. We just want the least uncertain model we can get...
Presscon @KemenkesRI sore ini tidak menjawab:
Mengapa pasien yg menurut Info Depkes baru masuk Bali 4 hari, artinya sdh terkena Corona, koq di Bandara bisa diterima masuk? Bagaimana protokol pemeriksaan WNA di bandara dijalankan efektif?
Mengapa pasien yg menurut Info Depkes baru masuk Bali 4 hari, artinya sdh terkena Corona, koq di Bandara bisa diterima masuk? Bagaimana protokol pemeriksaan WNA di bandara dijalankan efektif?
Kmatian krn #Covid19 di semua ngr mayoritas mnimpa pasien usia lanjut, yg umumnya sdh pny pnyakit lain. Krn itu BUKAN pnyakit lain pasien yg jd fokus presscon @KemenkesRI utk tenangkan masy, tp sjauh mana protokoler pncegahn efektif di daerah2, terutama kedatangan WNA di bandara.
Berulang2 mjelaskn kematian pasien no.25 krn pny pnyakit lain sm spt jelaskn org diabet mati kena serangan jantung. Shrsnnya logika dibalik, @KemenkesRI justru smpaikan bhw corona sgt bbahaya bg org usia lanjut, lbh beresiko kematian. Krn itu mrk djadikn prioritas dlm pencegahan.
