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As part of my resolutions for 2019, I want to think more critically about the papers I'm reading. I'll start with "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts" (arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807).

#AI #predictions #paperreview
The paper "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts" analyses predictions about progress in AI from researchers who published at the 2015 NIPS and ICML conferences. Only a quick survey was used to gather the data.

arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807
A quick survey does not evoke thoughtful forecasts. It provokes fast thinking and sampling from intuition. Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking fast and slow" provides ample examples of how fast thinking is skewed by bias.

amazon.co.uk/Thinking-Fast-…
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