Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #polls

Most recents (24)

PEOPLE OF SPACE! I’m super excited to be hosting this week! We’ll be covering a bunch of topics that are near and dear to me including #space (obviously), astronomy, supernovae, radio astronomy, science communication, and MORE
🧵
#science #scicomm #spacetwitter #intro #Thread
But who is this random dude yelling at us about space?
Well the short version is that I’m a physicist who finished high school with every intention of becoming a lawyer - pictured is 19yo me not caring about science
#accidentalscientist #accidentalphysicist #throwback #SPACE 10 years ago before I had considered a career in science - I
For a slightly longer version you can check out this #thread I did on my @funfactscience account recently to reintroduce myself to #spacefam and any newcomers to my page
#introductions #spacetwitter #space
Read 7 tweets
1/4 Three #polls

I’m going to do a brief video soon on messaging.

But first I want to get a few polls* on what those following my account feel themselves 👇

(*yes, I know there’s a margin for trolling, as always. 😂)
2/4 When I’ve said I’m “cautiously optimistic” regarding context of metabolic fat-adaptation, you take that as…

1) I’m very confident LDL is of no concern.

2) I don’t know if LDL is of concern in this context, it very well could be. But I current lean toward the optimistic.
3/4 True or false-

I think you should listen/read only resources coming from those skeptical that LDL causes heart disease.
Read 4 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 10/23/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/10/23/dai…
COVID vaccine makers brace for a variant worse than Delta

nature.com/articles/d4158…

#COVID19 #EscapeVariants #VaccineUpdates #timeliness
The broken $100-billion promise of climate finance — and how to fix it

nature.com/articles/d4158…

#ClimateChange #UnitedNations #pledges #mitigation #consequences
Read 8 tweets
'Today’s meeting with political leaders from #JammuAndKashmir is an important step in the ongoing efforts towards a developed and progressive J&K, where all-round growth is furthered', tweets #PrimeMinister @narendramodi. | #ModiOneIndiaMessage
@narendramodi 'Our priority is to strengthen grassroots democracy in #JammuAndKashmir delimitation has to happen at a quick pace so that #polls can happen and J&K gets an elected Government that gives strength to J&K’s development trajectory', tweets PM @narendramodi. | #ModiOneIndiaMessage
@narendramodi 'Our #democracy’s biggest strength is the ability to sit across a table and exchange views. I told the leaders of #JammuAndKashmir that it's the people, specially the youth who have to provide political leadership to J&K', tweets PM @narendramodi. | #ModiOneIndiaMessage
Read 4 tweets
Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #Georgia #Senate #Runoff #poll conducted 12/1 - 12/3 shows tight races:

Senate Runoff
48.0% @ossoff,
47.3% @Perduesenate,
4.7% Und.

Senate Runoff (special)
50.2% @KLoeffler,
45.3% @ReverendWarnock,
4.6% Und. See Report: thetrafalgargroup.org/news/gasen-dec… Image
This poll is based on All votes we anticipate to be counted in GA Senate Runoff (both above and below the table).
Our @trafalgar_group #GASen #Runoff #Polls also shed some light on Georgia voters opinions of whether the #Presidential elections were compromised enough to change the outcome.  All voters 53.2% yes, 37.9% no, 8.9% unsure.  GOP voters 74.6% yes, 15.9% no, 9.5% unsure.
Read 3 tweets
FOLKS—Polling sucks. Amateur-“pro”-political polls as we know it—is done. Polls had said Biden led FL w/ 70% chance of winning—it became a wide Trump win.

➡️Most pollsters have no expertise in adv epidemiology & biostatistics. I would change it.🧵 #polls thehill.com/homenews/media…
2) Many epidemiologists have long worried political polling is overconfident, uncertainties underestimated, & state/local factors poorly adjusted. Now we’re seeing it play out—again.

I know someone who paid $25k for what ended up as crap n=400 poll that’s worthless.
3) Many sources of unaccounted for uncertainties in polls:

📌SAMPLING (landline vs cell vs other?)

📌RESPONSE BIAS (shy respondent)

📌TURNOUT MODEL ASSUMPTIONS (who shows up)

📌STATISTICAL WEIGHTING adds extra variance (error)

📌UNDERSAMPLING minorities for reliable weights
Read 6 tweets
Waiting in line to #vote? Waiting for #polls to close? Need 1 min of icy entertainment this #Election2020?

Enjoy this compilation of the sounds made by pure ice boreholes in #Antarctica. 🕳🧊🇦🇶🔊
Written explainer at the link. TLDR:
1) As ice scrapes down hole, Doppler effect decreases sound frequency
2) "Ricochet" is sound of ice hitting bottom coming up at varying speed
3) "Heartbeat" is set by 320 m/sec speed of sound reverberating up/down hole
rochester.edu/newscenter/why…
Read 4 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 10/08/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/10/08/dai…
Professor Francois Balloux on Twitter

threadreaderapp.com/convos/1313818…

#COVID19
Updates to Medium’s Curation and Distribution System

link.medium.com/Uj3kdoZfoab

#medium
Read 6 tweets
Trump is TERRIFIED of losing.

He wants to make Dems think there's no point in voting.

Don't give in to it. Let's make sure he loses.

Sign up for training to volunteer for the National Voter Assistance Hotline!
1/5 #VoteHimOut2020
#BidenCoalition
mobilize.us/2020victoryvp/…
Volunteer to be a poll observer to help protect the vote at polling places!

This is what terrifies Trump - voters being engaged and involved. #Election2020 #polls 2/5
go.joebiden.com/page/s/electio…
Make sure you, your friends and family are registered to vote, have verified their info, and know where their polling places & voting options are.

Vote in person and early if at all possible.
3/5
Iwillvote.com
Read 7 tweets
Thank You, @CarterCenter

Carter Centre To Launch First-Ever US Election Initiative, Citing ‘Erosion’ Of Democracy In US

Exclusive: Democracy Promotion Group Founded By Jimmy Carter Will Launch US-Focused Initiative For First Time In Its History

independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
"The democracy promotion organisation founded by former president #JimmyCarter 💙 is to launch its first-ever #UnitedStates #election initiative this year, citing an “erosion” of democracy in the country. The @CarterCenter has monitored more than 110 #elections in the...
... #MiddleEast, #EastAfrica, #LatinAmerica, and #Asia since 1989 as part of #democracy promotion efforts around the world. Although there are no plans yet to monitor #polls in the #US, this will be the first time it has engaged in a US #election at all."
Read 9 tweets
Good piece by #Maine political science professor @ASFried: #SusanCollins told CNN she won't say whether she supports Trump's reelection b/c she's in a tight race:

“In parts of the state President Trump is very popular, in parts of the state he’s very unpopular." thread
.@ASFried: #SusanCollins's refusal to say if she'll vote for Trump contrasts sharply w/ her 2016 statement saying she thought he was unsuitable for office b/c he failed to treat people w/ respect, "an idea that should transcend politics.”

Not any more.
#SusanCollins recently said she was forthright w/ #Maine voters about Trump in '16 because she “was not up for re-election."

1>She didn't let that stop her in previous years when she was running in a pres election year.

2>Is there anything more Collins than that? @ASFried
Read 6 tweets
1/ Any analysis of Trump (ym'sh) must implicitly understand - if not overtly state - that he's a career criminal AND he fits the profile of a malignant narcissist (as asserted by his niece). There's no long-term thinking; he's all desperate & predictable need.
2/ Furthermore, any analysis of the election (& pandemic) must overtly state that 35-40% of the public exclusively watches FoxNews and are thus immersed in non-factual propaganda

Using this fact as a starting point shows why most of the 'fundamentals' are unreliable
3/ #Polls should have as a screening question: "where do you get your news" If it's "only Fox" (& equivalents, like Facebook) then I would suggest those voters need to be coded as resistant to fundamentals. The don't know the causes of the bad economy, mass death etc
Read 7 tweets
July Fox News #poll: “#Biden is preferred over Trump among extremely motivated voters (+8 points), those extremely likely to vote (+9) and those who feel it is extremely important their candidate wins (+13)." foxnews.com/opinion/trump-…
.@FoxNews polls have "found that a larger share of voters strongly disapprove of President Trump than strongly approve in every single poll we have taken since inauguration day. This strong disapproval is driven by Democrats." #polls #polling
In most recent quarter, #Biden raked in $16 million more than Trump & added 2.6 million donors. 97% of Biden's $$ is from grassroots donors.

#Dem Senate candidates outraised GOP incumbents in Alaska, AZ, CO, GA, IO, KY, #Maine, Mont, NC, SC. #voteblue
Read 5 tweets
I wanna run a couple of quick yes/no polls just to figure out trends in our behaviour, please do help by participating and sharing the thread, grateful and thanks in advance 🙏🏻
#polls
If airlines start flying from 15th May will you fly for something not very essential?
#flights
If the #lockdown ends on 15th May and you get a wedding reception invite, will you attend it?
Read 11 tweets
Avui farà una setmana que vam haver de quedar-nos a casa. Quatre dies abans del decret. Havia anat prenent nota d'alguns detalls i, per fi, he pogut reunir un moment per passar a net alguns gargots que vaig esbossar...

Comencem...

#coronavirus #diaridequarentena
El segon dia de la nostra quarantena familiar, dimarts de la setmana passada. Érem joves i innocents...
#coronavirus #diaridequarentena
I arribo al nostre tercer dia en quarantena: dimecres passat. Vam començar a adonar-nos que allò no seria qüestió de dos dies...
#coronavirus #diaridequarentena
Read 105 tweets
1/
Hey folks: I wanted to share something @apmresearch just released that I’m very proud of:

Our VOTER PROFILE TOOLS, as part of our broader #RepresentingUS project. (Read: A wealth of data to understand the US electorate in interactive @tableau tools.)
apmresearchlab.org/representingus…
@APMResearch @tableau 2/
We at @apmresearch released these tools on #IowaCaucus day, but expect that they will be valuable up until the #2020election & beyond—to understand how eligible voters differ—often dramatically—from state to state & in each congressional district.

apmresearchlab.org/representingus…
@APMResearch @tableau 3/
Already I’ve read numerous #media stories about the #IowaCaucuses & #NewHampshirePrimary saying those states don’t reflect the nation’s #demographics, but the #journalists didn’t include any data as to HOW they differed and to what degree.
Read 22 tweets
Time to look back. In january I shot this story in #Scotland for @asturiassemanal @RTPAOficial. A modern tale about #forests, wild #cats and rugby set in the Scotish #Highlands and #Asturias. Shot with an #iphone X using @FiLMiCPro #mojo
Watch it here: Image
From february on, I followed the efforts of a group of convicted people to give up drugs in order to walk away from jail. #mojo
Watch the story for @asturiassemanal @RTPAOficial here:
➡️ rtpa.es/video:Asturias… Image
A fragil ice heart beats under the limestone soil of Picos de Europa National Park. The only way in is through the ice caves. In march @asturiassemanal @RTPAOficial broadcasted this story I shot with an #iPhoneX & a light gear after a 4 hours walk #mojo Image
Read 12 tweets
Interesting evening spent with 4 senators at a very small gathering. LOTS of optimism—fueled by internal #poll data—that we will flip the Senate.

Maine: @SenatorCollins is DOWN by 2 points. Her #Kavanaugh vote decimated her approval rating — she went from 57 to the upper-30’s.😎
Senate breakdown is 53 @GOP—47 @SenateDems + Independent.

@DougJones faces a tough re-election bid, but @jeffsessions may split the anti-Roy Moore vote. If Moore wins the primary, Jones has a great chance.

If Jones loses, we need 4-5 seats to flip—4 if we win @POTUS, 5 if not.
In Colorado, @CoryGardner is in BIG trouble. John @Hickenlooper leads by 12 points!

In #NC, @ThomTillis is literally polling in the toilet (approval rating in the 20’s!), so another great pickup opportunity for @TheDemocrats.😎
Read 17 tweets
Ah, the #EuropeanParliamentElection knocks at the door! Let’s see who is #campaigning for what…In #Italy, a #rightwingcoalition calls for a #guaranteedincome, #largerpensions, and resistance to the heavy-handed #austerityprograms enforced by the #EuropeanUnion.
In #France, some #rightwinggroups champion #fight against #climatechange, decry #exploitation of #foreignworkers, growing #economicinequality. What about the #centerright and #centerleft parties? #Polls show they will lose their #majority, and the Euroskeptics bag 30+% of seats.
However, #Euroskeptic, like #populist, is a term that obscures more than it reveals. #Spain’s leftist #Podemos isn’t likely to break bread with #Italy’s rightist #NorthernLeague-#M5S, but both are considered #Euroskeptic. Some are really #wolves but wear #sheepskins.
Read 18 tweets
The #RevokeArticle50 #RevokeArticle50Petition is the petition that has seen broadest support of any parliamentary petition in UK's political history if I am not wrong. It is inconceivable that among the signatories there are only individuals who voted #Remain in 2016...
Yet, most opinion polls still suggest only a small swing to #Remain. How can we make sense of this?
A remarkable observation from online polls such as the British Election study @besresearch (using @YouGov) is that among participants in these polls, self-reported turnout in the EU referendum is huge -- 92.5% of BES panel wave participants stated that they voted in the #EURef
Read 13 tweets
THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
Read 20 tweets
THREAD: I’ve spent the last few weeks chatting with people about the upcoming #midterm elections. I’d like to share some of what I’ve heard and why this gives me so much hope.🇺🇸
I met these young women while walking my pups in my beachside community. For privacy reasons, I won’t share their real names (let’s call them “Julie” and “Amy”), but they graciously allowed me to share their stories.
One the best parts of walking my “boys” (Bowen and Bynum) is that I get to meet lots of strangers. I mean, who can resist these two?😍

Seriously, the pups break the ice, and as a consequence, I’ve met lots of interesting people.
Read 27 tweets

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