Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #polls

Most recents (4)

THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
Read 20 tweets
THREAD: I’ve spent the last few weeks chatting with people about the upcoming #midterm elections. I’d like to share some of what I’ve heard and why this gives me so much hope.🇺🇸
I met these young women while walking my pups in my beachside community. For privacy reasons, I won’t share their real names (let’s call them “Julie” and “Amy”), but they graciously allowed me to share their stories.
One the best parts of walking my “boys” (Bowen and Bynum) is that I get to meet lots of strangers. I mean, who can resist these two?😍

Seriously, the pups break the ice, and as a consequence, I’ve met lots of interesting people.
Read 27 tweets
Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
2/ Polls have two major aspects: Sample and Methodology. These are the parameters that define how the poll is taken and how accurately it reflects a population.
3/ Let's start with sample, also called sample size. It tells you how many people are polled to get the results. Most of the big polls you see in the news have a sample size somewhere around a thousand. This works for the pollsters, because it's a manageable
Read 24 tweets
Spooks are Spooked.
Clowns inserted [Snowden2] last year.
Operation failed.
Expect another BIG coordinated wave [#3] of attacks by FAKE NEWS.
Q

#QANON
#MAGA
#CLOWNSINACTION
Those who are attacked the most are the BIGGEST threat.
Q

#QANON
#MAGA
#4AM
Read 5 tweets

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