Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #poptwitter
Most recents (19)
Our paper on @WHO excess mortality associated with Covid-19 now on @Nature:
nature.com/articles/s4158…
Please read it and the associated coverage, we aimed to make it as sound and widely understandable as possible.
some important highlights:
#poptwitter #epitwitter #econtwitter
nature.com/articles/s4158…
Please read it and the associated coverage, we aimed to make it as sound and widely understandable as possible.
some important highlights:
#poptwitter #epitwitter #econtwitter
It's often argued that in the absence of all-cause-mortality data to directly estimate excess deaths, we should rely on the officially reported covid-19 data. This is false, as we explain here
It is high time that countries, regions and the world report all-cause-mortality in (as close to) real time as possible.
This will help prevent future outbreaks from evolving to an epidemic and then a pandemic.
Vital Registration is VITAL.
This will help prevent future outbreaks from evolving to an epidemic and then a pandemic.
Vital Registration is VITAL.
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
dearpandemic.org/numbers-infect…
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
dearpandemic.org/numbers-infect…
2/ A recent @CDCgov MMWR report estimated seroprevalence from a convenience sample of blood collected for medical tests.
➡️Roughly 58% of Americans showed evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in their blood by Feb '22.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…?
➡️Roughly 58% of Americans showed evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in their blood by Feb '22.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…?
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Russia at 1.04 MILLION excess deaths since March 2020, which is about 240% higher than their reported COVID-19 deaths.
This is 1st place worldwide (for countries with data) in absolute excess mortality, 2nd place on per capita terms and 9th on p-score.
#poptwitter #epitwitter
This is 1st place worldwide (for countries with data) in absolute excess mortality, 2nd place on per capita terms and 9th on p-score.
#poptwitter #epitwitter
For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
github.com/dkobak/excess-…
and the accompanying @signmagazine paper:
rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/17…
github.com/dkobak/excess-…
and the accompanying @signmagazine paper:
rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/17…
#WorldMortality data and estimates for 116 countries around the world are free and open for all.
github.com/akarlinsky/wor…
github.com/dkobak/excess-…
For an in-depth discussion of methods and results see our @eLife paper:
doi.org/10.7554/eLife.…
github.com/akarlinsky/wor…
github.com/dkobak/excess-…
For an in-depth discussion of methods and results see our @eLife paper:
doi.org/10.7554/eLife.…
1/ Q: Is it true that #Omicron is less severe than previous variants?
A: We HOPE so, but we don’t know yet. The evidence so far is mixed.
dearpandemic.org/is-omicron-les…
A: We HOPE so, but we don’t know yet. The evidence so far is mixed.
dearpandemic.org/is-omicron-les…
2/ We are WAY past due for some good variant news. But pinning our #Omicron hopes on a less virulent variant is not wise for 2 reasons:
1) It might not be less severe in those who are “immune naïve” (neither vaccinated nor with a previous infection—still millions of people).
1) It might not be less severe in those who are “immune naïve” (neither vaccinated nor with a previous infection—still millions of people).
3/ 2) Many more infections *even* if less severe can still lead to an avalanche of hospitalizations and deaths, and the risk of long Covid.
@AdamJKucharski raised this last December w/ the rise of Alpha:
@AdamJKucharski raised this last December w/ the rise of Alpha:
Thanks to @jburnmurdoch for the shout-out & support for women putting in the work during the pandemic (yes-including data science ;).
Some of our fave follows: @Lizstuartdc @WhitneyEpi @kmpanthagani @IDEpiPhD @Tiffany_L_Green @v_dilego @monjalexander @LucyStats @ewrigleyfield
Some of our fave follows: @Lizstuartdc @WhitneyEpi @kmpanthagani @IDEpiPhD @Tiffany_L_Green @v_dilego @monjalexander @LucyStats @ewrigleyfield
Of course "Those Nerdy Girls" themselves: @abuttenheim @lindsleininger @drjenndowd @m_simanek @Rpiltchloeb @AshleyZRitter @S_AlbrechtPerez @fueledbyscience @malia_ailam @sarahmwc @JoannaInNY_MPH @LaurenHalePhD @Ga6 @shoshiaronowitz
+ our beloved "Nerdy Neighborhood" of women in #scicomm: @ersmith2016 @LizMarnik @unbiasedscipod @dr_kkjetelina @heysciencesam @evebmd @scimoms @mommyphd2 @DrGlorioso @FutureDocs @DrEmilyRSmith @IMPACT4HC @YEpidemiologist
Claim: Excess Mortality is something new you made up to scare us about COVID.
Truth: Excess Mortality is how we estimated death toll of previous pandemics.
See Spanish flu deaths in Hamburg from Caesmann et al. (2021)
cepr.org/active/publica…
#EconTwitter #poptwitter
Truth: Excess Mortality is how we estimated death toll of previous pandemics.
See Spanish flu deaths in Hamburg from Caesmann et al. (2021)
cepr.org/active/publica…
#EconTwitter #poptwitter
Only comment I have is that I wish the paper would actually use EXCESS mortality in the text, as it currently states "...at its peak, weekly deaths ran at 350% of their average 1917/19 value". Use the term, it's a well-established term and it's absence from the text is strange.
@joachim_voth uses the term directly in a terrific episode of @voxeu about the paper: voxeu.org/vox-talks/prop….
So why not write it explicitly in the paper?
So why not write it explicitly in the paper?
Check it out! It's an end-of-year Spatial Analytics + Data seminar bonanza! #SAD2020 is rounding out the year with a little something for everyone: neighbourhood change, mobility, social networks, python, and differential privacy! Details in thread below—please share!
Happening today (now!): text analysis and neighborhood change!
@DrDelmelle on “The Language of Neighborhood Change and Development”. Missing out? You’ll be able to catch the recording later #SAD2020
@DrDelmelle on “The Language of Neighborhood Change and Development”. Missing out? You’ll be able to catch the recording later #SAD2020
Next up in Spatial Analytics + Data seminar series (Nov 17) we host Laura Alessandretti (@lau_retti) on "The Scales of Human Mobility" #SAD2020 #poptwitter #gischat
eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-scales-o…
eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-scales-o…
@jonmarsk Indeed, @jonmarsk, we do not know the true scale of COVID-19 mortality and it will take time, much more and better quality data, and careful research to better clarify #COVID-19’s overall mortality impact. #poptwitter (1/11)
@jonmarsk N.B. demographers r still studying the nature + extent of the 1918 flu pandemic. Death reg today, whilst still incomplete & deficient in many countries, is better than 100 yrs ago. But the wide range + uncertainty assoc. w/ 1918 flu pandemic deaths shld give us much pause. (2/11)
@jonmarsk First - we need to remind ourselves that #COVID-19 related mortality is multi-faceted, as described by @AndrewNoymer, entailing direct-direct deaths, direct-indirect deaths, and indirect deaths. And we also need to think about competing risks. #poptwitter #epitwitter (3/11)
1/ Did the Sturgis bike rally cause 266,796 new cases of COVID-19? Probably not. Lesson- Beware viral studies that confirm your pre-existing beliefs so satisfyingly. (Long) thread: slate.com/technology/202… @FutureTenseNow @EricTopol @slate @govkristinoem @DearPandemic #Sturgis
2/ Like most people working on COVID-19, I am of the strong belief that mass gatherings during a pandemic are a bad idea. When this paper came out, the huge figures immediately hit the "I Told you So!" button in my & many people’s brains. iza.org/publications/d…
3/ The first red flag is the huge number itself-it doesn't pass the sniff test.
Early-career demographers! Excellent paid + mentored opportunities in vital statistics + demography to advance #CRVS + #genderequality. Int'l posts in #NYC, Panama + Guinea. Apply today! These posts are part of the ConVERGE Initiative tinyurl.com/y353253r @UNFPA #poptwitter
ConVERGE Initiative = Connecting Vital Events Registration and Gender Equality. Jointly convened by @UNFPA + @IDRC_CRDI See tinyurl.com/yydhk4pw for the work that we are advancing... Great opportunity to get experience with a @UN Agency on #vital #statistics Apply by Aug 14!
Full announcement for @UNFPA Population Data Fellowships on #CRVS available here: unv.org/News/New-cohor… . Huge thank you to @CanadaDev + @IDRC_CRDI for the support! @benoitkalasa @Atayeshe @MontasserK @ArjanDevDebate #LeaveNoOneBehind #EverybodyCounts #SDG16.9
Q: What is the real death toll due to COVID-19? Are we OVER or UNDER counting deaths? Wouldn’t a lot of these people have died anyway?
A: The death toll has been HIGH, we are likely UNDER counting deaths, & some but NOT THIS MANY.
Let’s talk EXCESS MORTALITY. #epitwitter 1/
A: The death toll has been HIGH, we are likely UNDER counting deaths, & some but NOT THIS MANY.
Let’s talk EXCESS MORTALITY. #epitwitter 1/
What is excess mortality? Very simply, it is the number of deaths above and beyond those that would have been expected based on previous years. 2/
People often have multiple contributing factors to death. There is room for error here and potential for both under and over counting of COVID-19 deaths.
A good overview of the challenges in measuring COVID-19 specific deaths from @LiveScience:
bit.ly/3jdbXQT
3/
A good overview of the challenges in measuring COVID-19 specific deaths from @LiveScience:
bit.ly/3jdbXQT
3/
1/ 👇What is the real #COVID19 death toll in England & Wales? In our new study led by @jm_aburto & @ridhikash07, we estimate 53,937 excess deaths in the first half of 2020, roughly 33% higher than officially reported COVID-19 deaths. bit.ly/30koOrx
2/ Excess deaths vary by age & sex, with males comprising 54% of excess deaths in despite being a smaller proportion of the population at the oldest ages (so males have a higher risk of dying at all ages).
3/ The largest numbers of lives lost were among the 75-85 & 85+ groups, reflecting mortality 29.1% & 36.8% above expected levels. 15-44 year olds accounted for only 290 excess deaths, 6.1% above the expected level.
1/6 We document trends and levels in mortality indicators. But our family of databases is actually bigger #HMD #STMF #poptwitter #mortality #epitwitter 👇 mortality.org
2/6 The main HMD collection includes data coming from national vital registration system with near complete coverage, with an apparent low degree of age bias, and that require little to no modeling. The collection includes currently 41 populations.
3/6 Now for the first time ever we are also monitoring weekly mortality levels in as close to real time as we can for 19 countries -and growing!
Check the Short-Term Mortality Fluctuation (STMF) data series!
Check the Short-Term Mortality Fluctuation (STMF) data series!
Thanks to @crimmin @scurran_uw & @PopAssocAmerica for hosting an enlightening #Demography & #COVID19 webinar today. I wanted to follow-up with some links to people & resources, some of which I didn't have time to call out in the talk...
First @ikashnitsky & @jm_aburto used beautiful #dataviz to map age structure & #COVID19 risk regionally in Europe:
@FCBillari & the strength of family ties & #COVID19
Some thoughts on a new pre-print from @brunoarpinoFLR @ValeriaBordone @PasqualiniMarta on empirical evidence for intergenerational contact and #COVID19 osf.io/preprints/soca… …#poptwitter @oxfordemsci @melindacmills @rotondivale 1/
In our pre-print from mid-March, we hypothesized that close intergenerational ties may have helped accelerate spread of COVID-19 in Italy from Milan to the older, vulnerable population... 2/
which combined with the high % of older persons in Italy resulted in a high number of deaths. doi.org/10.1101/2020.0… 3/
Hi #poptwitter! 🌍
Today, we’re excited to have @ikashnitsky for our first #PEExpertTwitterTakeover! He will be sharing info about his research all day, so make sure to follow along! Thank you, Ilya, for making this intro video and the floor is now all yours!
Today, we’re excited to have @ikashnitsky for our first #PEExpertTwitterTakeover! He will be sharing info about his research all day, so make sure to follow along! Thank you, Ilya, for making this intro video and the floor is now all yours!
.@ikashnitsky: I’ve just finished my PhD thesis on unequal ageing in the regions of Europe, which I wrote at @NIDI_KNAW under the supervision of @BeerJoop and @leo_wissen. Soon to be defended at @FRW_RUG
All the papers & materials for the project are here osf.io/d4hjx/
All the papers & materials for the project are here osf.io/d4hjx/
The outbreak of #COVID19 highlighted the importance of local differences in population age structures – aged populations are more vulnerable. With @jm_aburto we explored pandemic risks across unequally aged regions of Europe osf.io/abx7s/
From @FCBillari & colleagues "The comparatively higher prevalence of intergenerational contacts in Southern Europe shows a higher vulnerability to epidemics that disproportionately affect older adults." 1/2
"This vulnerability is magnified for Italy, given its higher level of population aging and also higher number of social contacts for the elderly population." contexts.org/blog/structura… @OxfordDemSci @PopulationEU #poptwitter
Does anyone with more context have thoughts on why Greece has been relatively spared relative to Italy and Spain?
1/12 How does #Demography impact #COVID19 deaths? In new pre-print, we illustrate how older population age structure can interact with high mortality rates at older ages to produce a large # of fatalities, as in Italy. osf.io/se6wy/?view_on… #poptwitter #epitwitter
2/12 #COVID19 fatalities are hitting older age groups hard. Case fatality rates for 80-90 currently 17.5% in Italy. While these numbers will hopefully be overestimates, the burden on older ages groups is frighteningly high.
3/12 With current concentration of deaths at older ages, COVID-19 deaths will hit older countries hard (Italy has 23% of population >65). Figure 1 compares Italy to South Korea (top) and Nigeria to Brazil (bottom) – two countries similar in size but different age distributions.
@censusSDC @UNMBBER Our natl. network of #censusSDC & @uscensusbureau had a really productive annual mtg earlier this month. 👋
Great opp'ty to hear how #stategov & univ #datapros are extending Census data -- new uses & broadening the audience.
Great opp'ty to hear how #stategov & univ #datapros are extending Census data -- new uses & broadening the audience.
@censusSDC @UNMBBER @uscensusbureau .@SuzanReagan provides a good roundup of news from our partners @uscensusbureau
Some of the news was (surprise) actu'ly newsworthy. (Attn #2020censusbeat #poptwitter)
Some of the news was (surprise) actu'ly newsworthy. (Attn #2020censusbeat #poptwitter)
@censusSDC @UNMBBER @uscensusbureau @SuzanReagan Highlights from my pt of view 👇
1. After some prodding by those of us in the States, USCB published a database of 2,700 #CompleteCount Cmtes prep'ing for #2020Census. Here public.tableau.com/profile/us.cen…
1. After some prodding by those of us in the States, USCB published a database of 2,700 #CompleteCount Cmtes prep'ing for #2020Census. Here public.tableau.com/profile/us.cen…
