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I have been studying the future of science for 18 months now. In this thread, I will (slowly) list some of the insights gained thus far on the estimating of futures of science (EFS).
1. The goal of EFS is not so much to predict future discoveries and innovations as to (i) understand the structural features of the future, and (ii) critically engage with conceptions of science that shape the visions and actions for the future.
2. There are many interesting similarities between approaches in futures research and philosophy of science. For example, philosophy of science has provided insight similar to those provided by causal layered analysis (CLA).
Whole lot of hot takes out there around #COVID19, foresight, and the #BlackSwan concept | Dear readers, I present to you...the hottest of hot takes: #coronavirus both "is and is not" a black swan, & this is the most reasonable, rigorous, & responsible view
But first, yes...foresight actually works! And not because it can help you "predict" the future, but precisely because it can help you understand complex phenomena and, at best, spot "emerging issues." See: &
And, the folks at @CSIS struck gold: csis.org/analysis/we-pr… Unfortunate use of the word "predict," which literally means "say before" & should be banished from the vocabulary of all futurists. Great stuff from @BryanAlexander here: bryanalexander.org/futures/antici…
