Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #potentialoutcomes

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Thread: Philosophers have been obsessing over multi-path causes for over 40 years, but without @yudapearl's non-parametric #mediation techniques they have been unable to provide an account of #path-specific effects. Why not?…
First, both philosophers and social scientists have focused on linear non-additive causal models. But in these models direct and indirect effects have properties that don't generalize to other cases.
In linear models, the total effect is the sum of the direct and indirect effect. One gets the direct effect by conditioning on the mediator, and the value at which you condition on the mediator doesn't matter. The indirect effect is the total effect minus the direct effect.
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