Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #pulmonologists
Most recents (2)
This just out: Physicians do not logically/correctly estimate the probability of outcomes resulting from sequences of events - a thread. #conjunctionfallacy #probability #medicaldecisionmaking #clinicalreasoning #innumeracy #numeracy jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman… @JAMANetworkOpen
In this article, we showed that physicians estimated the probability of two events both occurring as *more* likely than one or both of the individual events. This is logically impossible and consistent with the #conjunctionfallacy. This #bias can lead to catastrophic outcomes
The impetus for the study was an #OBGYN catastrophe that resulted, in part, from this bias. A woman presented in labor w brow presentation. For successful vaginal delivery, 2 events must happen: reversion to deliverable position, and vaginal delivery w/o #caesareansection
This 30ish woman of mean height has a recurrent right spontaneous #PTX 18 months after the first. She has a history of thoracic pain receiving spinal steroid injections; o/w healthy. The best way to get the #diagnosis is (poll next) 
The best way to get the diagnosis is:
