Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #quad1
Most recents (5)
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Macro Review 🧵
01/22/2023
1/9
Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?
Where did they come from? Why?
Macro Review 🧵
01/22/2023
1/9
Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?
Where did they come from? Why?
2a/9
Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”
Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.
The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising
Chart: Core #PCE
Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”
Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.
The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising
Chart: Core #PCE
2b/9
Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y
Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y
Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Macro Review 🧵
01/15/2023
1/11
Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons
#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%
Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻
Macro Review 🧵
01/15/2023
1/11
Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons
#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%
Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻
1a/11
Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.
Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks
Chart:
Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.
Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks
Chart:
2/11
While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12
Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12
Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
Hello Friday and the week to date!
$GOLD +1.55%
$GBP +1.08%
$USD -1.59%
$TLT +2.35%
$HYG +1.47%
$TNX -3.36%
$IWM +4.65%
$DAX +4.31%
$SSEC +1.26%
$NIKK +0.56%
#Bitcoin +11.26%
$COPPER +7.42%
$WTIC +6.26%
$NATGAS -0.54%
$SILVER +0.08%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$GOLD +1.55%
$GBP +1.08%
$USD -1.59%
$TLT +2.35%
$HYG +1.47%
$TNX -3.36%
$IWM +4.65%
$DAX +4.31%
$SSEC +1.26%
$NIKK +0.56%
#Bitcoin +11.26%
$COPPER +7.42%
$WTIC +6.26%
$NATGAS -0.54%
$SILVER +0.08%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed ↗️ ex-Japan
$NIKK 26119 -1.25%
$SSEC 3195 +1.0%
$TWII 14824 +0.65%
$HSI 21739 +1.05%
$KOSPI 2386 +0.9%
$IDX 6642 +0.2%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7328 +0.65%
India ↗️
$BSE 60276 +0.55%
$NIKK 26119 -1.25%
$SSEC 3195 +1.0%
$TWII 14824 +0.65%
$HSI 21739 +1.05%
$KOSPI 2386 +0.9%
$IDX 6642 +0.2%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7328 +0.65%
India ↗️
$BSE 60276 +0.55%
Europe ↗️♉️
$DAX 15075 +0.1%
$FTSE 7840 +0.6%
$CAC 7009 +0.5%
$AEX 748 +0.8%
$IBEX 8910 +0.95%
$MIB 25831 +0.4%
$SMI 11327 +0.35%
$MOEX 2186 unch
$VSTOXX 17.49 🔻⬅️
$DAX range = 14237 - 15240 ♉️
$DAX 15075 +0.1%
$FTSE 7840 +0.6%
$CAC 7009 +0.5%
$AEX 748 +0.8%
$IBEX 8910 +0.95%
$MIB 25831 +0.4%
$SMI 11327 +0.35%
$MOEX 2186 unch
$VSTOXX 17.49 🔻⬅️
$DAX range = 14237 - 15240 ♉️
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Global Macro Review
September 12, 2022
1/10
Comping against the June lows, equities, yields, and #bitcoin ripped ↗️ as the USD and vol 🌊 ↘️ even as a litany of #FedHeads reaffirmed more 👊🥣 removal
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review
September 12, 2022
1/10
Comping against the June lows, equities, yields, and #bitcoin ripped ↗️ as the USD and vol 🌊 ↘️ even as a litany of #FedHeads reaffirmed more 👊🥣 removal
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10
The $USD 🎳 paused while ECB, BOC, RBA hiked 75 BPS
$FXY -1.7% (w) -6.0% (T)
$UUP -0.65% (w), +4.9% (T)
$FXA +0.6% (w), -3.0% (T)
$FXE +0.91% (w), -4.75% (T)
$FXC +1.04% (w), -1.9% (T)
$FXF +2.14% (w), +2.6% (T)
Chart: capitulatory selling in $FXY 💴
The $USD 🎳 paused while ECB, BOC, RBA hiked 75 BPS
$FXY -1.7% (w) -6.0% (T)
$UUP -0.65% (w), +4.9% (T)
$FXA +0.6% (w), -3.0% (T)
$FXE +0.91% (w), -4.75% (T)
$FXC +1.04% (w), -1.9% (T)
$FXF +2.14% (w), +2.6% (T)
Chart: capitulatory selling in $FXY 💴
3a/10
Treasury bond ETFs were 🪓 as the $UST10Y +9.8 BPS to 3.3.15%
10/2s to -24.8 BPS
MOVE 121.54 🛗
$TLT -1.75% (w), -4.8% (T)
$TIP -1.05% (w), -5.05% (T)
$IEF -0.85% (w), -1.05% (T)
Chart: $TLT oversold and exploring a double bottom
Treasury bond ETFs were 🪓 as the $UST10Y +9.8 BPS to 3.3.15%
10/2s to -24.8 BPS
MOVE 121.54 🛗
$TLT -1.75% (w), -4.8% (T)
$TIP -1.05% (w), -5.05% (T)
$IEF -0.85% (w), -1.05% (T)
Chart: $TLT oversold and exploring a double bottom
Hello Friday and the Week to date
$SSEC +1.7%
$SPX +1.5%
$KOPSI +1.3%
$DAX +0.9%
$AUD +2.8%
$GBP +1.02%
$GOLD +0.9%
$USD -1.4%
$LUMBER +24.3%
$COTTON +8.8%
$BRENT +5.05%
$COPPER +4.35%
$BTC +3.5%
$TLT -1.8%
Let's dig into more 🧮!
$SSEC +1.7%
$SPX +1.5%
$KOPSI +1.3%
$DAX +0.9%
$AUD +2.8%
$GBP +1.02%
$GOLD +0.9%
$USD -1.4%
$LUMBER +24.3%
$COTTON +8.8%
$BRENT +5.05%
$COPPER +4.35%
$BTC +3.5%
$TLT -1.8%
Let's dig into more 🧮!
Closed for 🏔️ day yesterday, 🇯🇵 played catch ↗️
$NIKK 28547 +2.6% 🇯🇵
$SSEC 7032 -0.55%
$TWII 15289 +0.6%
$HSI 20163 +0.4%
$KOSPI 2528 +0.15%
$IDX 7130 -0.45%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7032 -0.55%
India ↗️
$BSE 59519 +0.3%
$NIKK 28547 +2.6% 🇯🇵
$SSEC 7032 -0.55%
$TWII 15289 +0.6%
$HSI 20163 +0.4%
$KOSPI 2528 +0.15%
$IDX 7130 -0.45%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7032 -0.55%
India ↗️
$BSE 59519 +0.3%
Europe ♉️↗️ at the open
$DAX 13779 +0.65%
$FTSE 7509 +0.6%
$CAC 6578 +0.5%
$AEX 726 -0.05%
$IBEX 8442 +0.75%
$MIB 22986 +0.55%
$SMI 11165 +0.1%
$MOEX 2140 +0.3% 🪆
$VSTOXX 21.15
$DAX range = 13376 - 13858 🐻
$DAX 13779 +0.65%
$FTSE 7509 +0.6%
$CAC 6578 +0.5%
$AEX 726 -0.05%
$IBEX 8442 +0.75%
$MIB 22986 +0.55%
$SMI 11165 +0.1%
$MOEX 2140 +0.3% 🪆
$VSTOXX 21.15
$DAX range = 13376 - 13858 🐻
