Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #r0

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Oggi cercherò di fare chiarezza sul tristemente famoso ERRE CON ZERO, ovvero il tasso di riproduzione di base di una #malattia #infettiva.
Si scrive #R0 e indica quante persone contagia mediamente una persona infetta.
Cambia da virus a #virus e non indica la gravità, ma solo il modo in cui si diffonde
Per il #morbillo per esempio è molto alto. Per il #SarsCov2 è più basso.
Quando R0 = 1 ogni persona ne infetta un’altra.
Quando R0 < 1 ovvero minore di 1 l’epidemia va spegnendosi
Quando R0 > 1 ovvero maggiore di 1 va aumentando
Questo ovviamente non significa che ogni persona realmente ne infetta un’altra e basta. Significa che mediamente l’#epidemia si diffonde così, con una media fra chi sta in casa e non infetta nessuno e chi ha una ricca vita sociale
Read 6 tweets
As said in the article, I am keen to engage in a meaningful and constructive dialogue on #COVID19SWEDEN, based on science... so lets explore some of the science in the points raised. svd.se/brittisk-exper… via
@SvD
1. The role of #asymptomatic and #presymptomatic transmission. As previously Tweeted, there are clear examples of #asymptomatic transmission... including through non-household contact: #communitytransmission nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NE…
2. Here is a pre-print of a review which reports multiple examples: medrxiv.org/content/10.110… (as always, caution with pre-prints, but the take home here is there are several published examples)
Read 10 tweets
1/n
What I've learned about #COVID19:
1. We don't want it. It has a death rate 10 to 20X that of flu. It is on average as bad as the 1918 #H1N1 strain in death rate
2. It is highly infectious. The #R0 is 2 or greater without countermeasures
2/n
3. Humans shed the virus even before they have subjective symptoms and this period can last several days.
4. Most people who have symptoms have fever and dry cough.
3/n
5. Even with a good test, some people have tested falsely negative on first test
6. My fellow Americans are culturally and politically focused less on medical science than on psychological projection in an attempt to avoid fear
Read 9 tweets

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