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You might hear a geologist say: "We can't predict earthquakes."
Well, WHY NOT???
1/n
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#earthquake #earthquakeprediction
Well, WHY NOT???
1/n
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#earthquake #earthquakeprediction
First, let's define "prediction". A useful #earthquakeprediction will tell you where, when, and how big a significant #earthquake will be, with a reasonably high success rate.
That's different from #forecasting, #earlywarning, and #aftershocks. 2/n
That's different from #forecasting, #earlywarning, and #aftershocks. 2/n
To date NO ONE has developed an effective way to predict significant earthquakes.
Issue #1: Faults are fractal.
"But we know where the tectonic plates are!"
Yes, mostly, but plate boundaries are complicated - see the maps below comparing plates vs. faults. 3/n
#tectoplot
Issue #1: Faults are fractal.
"But we know where the tectonic plates are!"
Yes, mostly, but plate boundaries are complicated - see the maps below comparing plates vs. faults. 3/n
#tectoplot
