Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ratecut

Most recents (5)

India MPC - Initial thoughts
1. No cut was a surprise. I had gone in with 35!
2. Looks like the RBI listened to the market which has been saying that further cuts will not help revive growth.
3. Clearly RBI is satisfied with transmission - 137 in call money and 218 in CPs! /1
India MPC - Initial thoughts
Contd.

4. Inflation per RBI seems a much greater risk than the market sees it. H2 revision from 3.5-3.7 to 4.7-5.1 is massive!
5. Growth revised down from 6.1 to 5 but there is belief that whatever the govt is doing to revive growth is /will work /2
India MPC - Initial thoughts
contd

Bonds have expectedly sold off more than 10 bps. Expect 10 yr to settle around 6.50%. Rupee seems unchanged at 71.57 and Nifty is holding above 12k.
/3
Read 4 tweets
#Moodys has pulled down its growth forecast for FY19 to 5.8%. Only surprise is why it’s not even lower. In the past year growth has collapsed from 8% to 5%. /1
@threadreaderapp

#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA #NCLT #growth
On the other hand #CPI is now at 4.6%. The laxmanrekha of 4% has been breached. A mix of drought, floods and unseasonal rain is driving food prices up. Core #inflation continues to fall to 3.7% reflecting the slowdown. /2
#India #GDP #RBI #bonds #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA
The wisemen and women of the economy have only one mantra - Cut, Pray, Hope. When in doubt cut rates.135 bps done but transmission is limited. We are told don’t look at nominal, real rates are still high. A single large cut is required. /3
#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation
Read 16 tweets
Hearing the RBI Guv and the #Fed Chair talk over the past 24 hrs two interesting differences come through. Dr. Das is much more confident though reserved in committing to numbers. Jay Powell is more transparent but does not exude confidence in his words. /1

#RBI #India #ratecut
RBI Guv was quite clear that there is limited fiscal space. Wanted spending esp of PSUs to be front loaded. /2

#RBI #India #ratecut
On bond yields he felt the recent spike in yields was largely specific, external event driven. /3

#RBI #India #ratecut
Read 10 tweets
A much better performance from Powell. But his tone and body language clearly showed that he believed that the US economy is doing well and this is just an insurance cut against the Trump Trade War and global weakness
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /1 @threadreaderapp
Powell was clear the US will not go to negative rates. He believes that asset purchases and forward guidance have worked in the past and that is the way forward as well.
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /2
On yield curve inversion Powell does not see it as a recession indicator but rather a contraction in term premia driven by global low interest rates.
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /3
Read 11 tweets
@c_ehrbar Laugh all you want, I look at every timeframe on everything that I'm concerned with. I chose the 1H timeframe here, and even the 3m too on a facebook post, to serve as a "before" image if/when it plays out as quickly as expected. Then I can make something like this yet again.
@c_ehrbar An example of higher timeframe context that I've been providing... Notice how nicely it bounced from the .886 retracement 125 days after I posted it.

tradingview.com/chart/NDX/ca8z…

#StockMarket $DJI $NDX $SPX $SPY
@c_ehrbar I use that along with my analysis on #bitcoin itself, the individual indices, my "sum of that american indices divided by the price of gold" private chart, and several others to be almost certain of my medium-term scenario playing out, just as I was about #bitcoin goin up from 3k
Read 6 tweets

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