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Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022

#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976

Let's look at more closely ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).

2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket Image
Read 53 tweets
So #FOMC decides to keep rates unchanged at 0%-0.25%

Interest on excess reserves raised by 5bps from 0.10% to 0.15%

Inflation forecast raised by 100bps from 2.4% to 3.4%,though #Fed says long term goal is 2%

No #RateHike before 2023,says Powell;In March,he said,not before 2024
So called overnight #Repo operations where banks exchange high-end collateral for reserves,have been seeing record demand lately,as institutions look for any yield above the negative rates they are seeing in some markets

No plans to stop $120bn of monthly Bond purchases by #Fed
In separate matter,#FOMC announced,it would extend dollar-swap lines with global central banks through end of the yr

Currency program is the last #Covid-era initiative,Fed took to keep global markets flowing

Basically,Fed decides to stay with liquidity glut&easy money policy
Read 5 tweets

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