Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ratehikes
Most recents (8)
Last week the latest #SalmanKhan starrer arrived in theatres, and the reviews seem mixed, depending whether one is a #Bhai fan or a critic. Meanwhile, what is the review on the market’s performance last week? Let’s break out the popcorn and watch. (1/8)
#Sensex and #Nifty dropped by over 1.1%. #RBI representatives remained optimistic about India’s #domesticgrowth during the monetary policy committee meeting, despite concerns about uneven growth in the economy & weak demand from outside India. (2/8)
Today’s #JobsReport was very solid, but like is often the case in the movies, it’s very hard for the sequel (today’s report) to match such an unexpected hit (January’s revised 504,000 jobs gained).
Still, a nonfarm #payroll gain of 311,000 jobs is quite good and having 815,000 jobs created so far this year after the #economy has already created 12 million #jobs over the past two years is pretty amazing in its own right.
Further, the 3-month moving average of 351,000 jobs, after a 12-month moving average of 362,000 jobs gained per month is also pretty remarkable, particularly after the market-implied pricing of the terminal #FedFunds rate has move up 500 basis points (bps) in a year.
TODAY IN THE MARKETS
$VIX
Down day for the #SPX, and the #VIX closed down -6.26% and below 20DMA
Yesterday: large bearish engulfing candle
Today: Continuation
Despite the lack of sync this looks like a bullish development for $SPX
#ES_F #trading $SPY $ES #options #VIX $VVIX
$VIX
Down day for the #SPX, and the #VIX closed down -6.26% and below 20DMA
Yesterday: large bearish engulfing candle
Today: Continuation
Despite the lack of sync this looks like a bullish development for $SPX
#ES_F #trading $SPY $ES #options #VIX $VVIX
$XLF
#XLF was rejected at 20DMA
The sector remains above the 200DMA, and near support
For the October #SPX rally to continue it's necessary for #XLF to hold above $34.40
#trading #banks #options #ES_F $SPX $SPY $ES #DayTrading #Futures #inflation #ratehikes #Fed #Financial
#XLF was rejected at 20DMA
The sector remains above the 200DMA, and near support
For the October #SPX rally to continue it's necessary for #XLF to hold above $34.40
#trading #banks #options #ES_F $SPX $SPY $ES #DayTrading #Futures #inflation #ratehikes #Fed #Financial
Today’s #JobsReport revealed an #economy that is producing #jobs at a slower pace than it has over the prior several months.
That said, a historic number of jobs have been created in this recovery since the fall of 2020, so a slowing in the pace of #growth isn’t unexpected.
Today is #WorldPopulationDay, which reminds us that while #ElonMusk is determined to contribute to increasing the population, he has also managed to upset the existing one, by backing out of the Twitter deal. Good thing that the markets were more stable, than Musk’s mood. 1/7
Talking about the “impending recession” seems to be the trend. So, it was a surprise last week, when both the #Sensex & the #Nifty went ↑ by almost 3%. Potential reasons? Maybe the cooldown in the prices of #commodities. This helps sectors like #Auto, #Realty, & #FMCG. 2/7
So naturally, both the #NiftyFMCG & #NiftyRealty were ↑ over 5%. #NiftyAuto was also ↑ 3.5%. In fact, every sectoral index was painting the town green. Global indices were also mostly up. The S&P 500 was ↑ 1.94% & the #NASDAQ100 ↑ by 4.6%. 3/7
As the first rate hike of this new (imho very short) rate hike cycle is getting closer, let's have a look at the performance of the #USD, #commodities and #gold before and after the first hike:
Will the #USD rally? Not necessarily..
The period prior to a US tightening shows a rally in the USD but very often weakens in the 6-month period following the first hike....
The period prior to a US tightening shows a rally in the USD but very often weakens in the 6-month period following the first hike....
What about #commodities? Consensus would tell us that raising rates will cause commodities to sell off.
Not really. ..The first rate hike proved to be close to the bottom for the 2015 cycle, and all cycles were higher a couple of months out...
Not really. ..The first rate hike proved to be close to the bottom for the 2015 cycle, and all cycles were higher a couple of months out...
So #FOMC decides to keep rates unchanged at 0%-0.25%
Interest on excess reserves raised by 5bps from 0.10% to 0.15%
Inflation forecast raised by 100bps from 2.4% to 3.4%,though #Fed says long term goal is 2%
No #RateHike before 2023,says Powell;In March,he said,not before 2024
Interest on excess reserves raised by 5bps from 0.10% to 0.15%
Inflation forecast raised by 100bps from 2.4% to 3.4%,though #Fed says long term goal is 2%
No #RateHike before 2023,says Powell;In March,he said,not before 2024
Little new information was gleaned from the #Fed yesterday, as the central bank is clearly on a “steady as she goes” path, and we expect #ratehikes in both September and December, but the path of rate “normalization” may well slow in later 2019.
#MonetaryPolicy divergence continues to be the order of the day, as modest tweaks from the Bank of Japan this week, and the European Central Bank policy stance, remain extremely accommodative, even as the Fed’s confidence in the U.S. #economy grows.
Global monetary policy divergence, and its influence on currencies, may continue to reveal economic “stress points,” and indeed already have with certain #EM troubles and in the case of Italy; so policy “normalization” may witness its limits before many currently anticipate.
