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The question for Investors (longer term horizon) is when do you sell $XLF ?
The answer is when Deposit Betas finally catch up to ~50% or 10Y3M Inverts Investors start to Pay Less & Less for every $1 of earnings power (driven by the Flow Through Rate of Inflation)….
The answer is when Deposit Betas finally catch up to ~50% or 10Y3M Inverts Investors start to Pay Less & Less for every $1 of earnings power (driven by the Flow Through Rate of Inflation)….
Long Term “Investors” who respect the Credit Cycle Started selling $XLF at the Peak of Price/TBV on $BKX in Jan 2018 at 2.1x & also long $ZROZ …as Deposit Betas were Peaking + Cyclicals/Commodity stocks like $CAT etc.. 
The other natural question that should pop up is…well if the Taper is coming & BKX is 1.8x…why shouldn’t 1 sell now? Won’t the Fed kill the Cycle w QT.. why on earth would 1 wait around… after doubling/tripling money from the March 20 bottom.. why wouldn’t 1 crystallize gains?
What the financial media hasn't discussed yet to my knowledge (@jimcramer tagging you b/c I know you seek the truth and I respect you):
1) Most of $GME losses last few years were due to non-cash write-offs.
2) Most of $GME revenue decline is due to the sale of Spring Mobile.
1) Most of $GME losses last few years were due to non-cash write-offs.
2) Most of $GME revenue decline is due to the sale of Spring Mobile.
3) The recent sudden drop in business the last 1.5 years was due to customers waiting for next-gen consoles. This only created pent-up demand.
4) Console sales have been declining for nearly 20 years, but those that did DD knew this was about to reverse w/ the next-gen consoles.
4) Console sales have been declining for nearly 20 years, but those that did DD knew this was about to reverse w/ the next-gen consoles.
5) $GME sales are heavily correlated to the number of consoles sold, b/c at the time of the console sale customers tend to...
5a) purchase more new physical games.
5b) purchase extra accessories.
5c) trade-in old consoles/games.
5a) purchase more new physical games.
5b) purchase extra accessories.
5c) trade-in old consoles/games.
1/n #YES bank, some thoughts and views.
This is a communication failure. You don't impose a moratorium on a major bank without a clear end game.
Markets hate uncertainty.
It will create panic. RBI's goal should be to not create unnecessary panic.
This is a communication failure. You don't impose a moratorium on a major bank without a clear end game.
Markets hate uncertainty.
It will create panic. RBI's goal should be to not create unnecessary panic.
2/n #UnintendedConsequences
50k withdrawal restriction is presumably to prevent run on the bank and buy time.
Depositors don't like arbitrary restrictions. Every depositor will withdraw 50k.
It will create a mini-run. I hope they are prepared.
50k withdrawal restriction is presumably to prevent run on the bank and buy time.
Depositors don't like arbitrary restrictions. Every depositor will withdraw 50k.
It will create a mini-run. I hope they are prepared.
3/n #WhatShouldTheyHaveDone
Get everyone in a room, and come out only with a complete solution (bailout, buyout whatever).
Has been done before by Volcker and JPMorgan.
Cannot play this out in the public domain over days. Crucial trust is lost in the banking system.
Get everyone in a room, and come out only with a complete solution (bailout, buyout whatever).
Has been done before by Volcker and JPMorgan.
Cannot play this out in the public domain over days. Crucial trust is lost in the banking system.
