Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #recession2020

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A lot of fuzz about the potential recovery of #China.

But, is her #economy really going to recover? A thread.

Sometimes, one picture says more than the thousand words. IMHO, this is one of those. πŸ‘‡ 1/8
#depression2020 #recession2020 #coronavirus
Thus, China responded to the economic shock caused by the #COVID19 and 'draconian' lock-downs with 'draconian' stimulus, setting the stage for other nations to follow.

The only word to describe this is: Desperation.

Remember. πŸ‘‡ 2/
The small decline in the share of non-financial sector debt to GDP will explode in Q1 and Q2 2020.

And, the shadow banking sector has grown to a "beast". πŸ‘‡

Chinese economy is massively leveraged. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Many seem to be unwilling or unable to grasp the dire economic consequences of the #COVID19 pandemic.

In this thread I try, based on the evolution of our thinking, to explain, why we are heading to a deep and prolonged depression.

First, an intro and a reminder. πŸ‘‡1/17
The situation in the world #economy would not be so alarming without this. πŸ‘‡

We have lived in unprecedented economic expansion with stagnated productivity growth!

I cannot stress enough, how strange and troubling this is. 2/
We analyzed its implications thoroughly in the March 2019 issue of our Q-Review.

"Because zombie companies can fail at any time, ..., they create a huge risk for both private investors and the global asset markets." 3/…
Read 17 tweets
NEW POST: "Part 2: #Recession2020, Really? A Review of the Data"… I talk about the popular hysteria building around #recession2020 and then share my dashboard of recession indicators.
1/I don't spend much time trying to "predict" an event as complex as a recession 12m out because that's a fool's errand. Rather, I trade the market in front of me and keep an eye on a number of signals & change my trend bias when the data says to. Here's what I look at
2/ The Conference Board LEI which has a median lead time of 10-months is at cycle highs currently and positive on a YoY% basis.
Read 18 tweets

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