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#JSM2021 an exceptionally rare case of ACTUAL out of sample prediction in #MachineLearning #ML #AI: two rounds of the same health data collection by @CDCgov 
@CDCgov Yulei He @cdcgov #JSM2021 RANDS 1 (fall 2015) + 2 (spring 2016): Build models on RANDS1 and compare predictions for RANDS2
ridge, lasso, elastic net, PLS, KNN, bagging, RF, GBM, XGBoost, SVM, deep learning
ridge, lasso, elastic net, PLS, KNN, bagging, RF, GBM, XGBoost, SVM, deep learning
#JSM2021 Yulei He R-square about 30%; random forests and grad boosting reduce the prediction error by about 4%, shrinking towards the mean; standard errors are way to small (-50% than should be)
