Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #resolvepm
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This was on track to happen next month but we're here already. #ResolvePM is the first Voice poll to have the Yes vote below 50% forced choice. (49-51, down 4).
There is also a 42-40 lead for Yes with undecided allowed (which I suggest the forced choice Q shows to be meaningless).
Don't agree with this wording (doubt it makes much difference): Voting yes/no is not compulsory (at least not enforceably); participation is. As previously noted informal vote has been negligible in referendums in recent decades but cannot be sure it will be so this time. 
#ResolvePM federal ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 ON 6 UAP 1 IND 9 (likely overstated) other 2. My 2PP estimate 61.5 to ALP (+2.1) Resolve's regular polls skew to Labor cf other polling (this is not true of their polls late in campaigns which use different methods.)
61.5 is the highest 2PP conversion I have for any poll in this term just beating 61.3 also from Resolve in Aug 2022. Nobody else has been above 57.4 on my conversions or 58,5 as a pubished 2PP. (Resolve does not normally release 2PPs and didn't for this poll.)
#ResolvePM Dutton net performance "in recent weeks" -28 down from -11 a month ago. Treat with caution because of the very low L-NP primary in this poll.
Quite likely around 1 in 10 enrolled voters will indeed not vote (even higher including informals) but I'm very sceptical that this longwinded and problematic question will capture these people.
Among other things it uses the word "registered". This aint the US, in Australia we say "enrolled". "registered" is all sorts of potentially misleading.
Voice result is trivially better (not statistically significant) than last month, 58-42 forced (was 57-43), 46-31 unforced (was 46-32)
I get 53.5 by 2018 preferences (very rubbery estimate because of very high Others vote and lack of detail of who Others are) #ResolvePM
Since the last poll IND has gone from 12 to 6 and Others has gone from 6 to 12. Question is is this a result of offering voters actual ballot choices as per federal or not. Need more detail.
In theory if Others included a big chunk of ON/UAP then respondent 53-47 could even be on the high side for these primaries. But just can't see any breakdown.
Also offering full ballot paper could partly explain low Green vote.
Resolve has been a rather volatile poll.
Also offering full ballot paper could partly explain low Green vote.
Resolve has been a rather volatile poll.
I've updated our Labor-vs-Coalition 2-party-preferred (2pp) calculator with data from the 2022 federal election!
It converts a set of first-preference votes into a 2pp estimate, and gives you some idea of the uncertainty. #auspol #ausvotes #auspseph
armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…
It converts a set of first-preference votes into a 2pp estimate, and gives you some idea of the uncertainty. #auspol #ausvotes #auspseph
armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…
Some polls - like the #ResolvePM released today - don't provide 2pp estimates, so it's unclear who's leading and by how much from the vote estimates published.
armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…
With this tool, we can see that the poll would result in a Labor landslide at an election,
armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…
With this tool, we can see that the poll would result in a Labor landslide at an election,
approximately equal to 1943 in terms of Labor's win on the 2-party vote.
Additionally, we can also see that even if the preference flows shift against Labor, it's very unlikely that they'd change enough to make this anything other than a large Labor victory.
Additionally, we can also see that even if the preference flows shift against Labor, it's very unlikely that they'd change enough to make this anything other than a large Labor victory.
#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 IND 12 (likely to be inflated) Others 6. My 2PP estimate if that happened on election day 61-39 to Labor but that is conservative; it could be even higher given IND issue. #springst
"In the lead-up to the 2010 state election, public polls gave the then-Labor government a similarly commanding majority, but Labor ended up losing in a surprise twist."
Not really. The 60-40 poll linked to was 20 months out from the election not 2. 2 months out it was 52-48.
Not really. The 60-40 poll linked to was 20 months out from the election not 2. 2 months out it was 52-48.
Results can be as all over the place as they like but if that poll occurred the Coalition would be looking at a loss of about 11 seats and the only question would be how many went to Labor and how many went to indies.
#ResolvePM (federal) ALP 39 Lib 32 Green 10 ON 6 UAP* 2 IND 8 (may be exaggerated) others 3
My 2PP estimate 57-43 to Labor. Previous poll which came out at over 61 was an outlier.
* polls may still include them in spite of deregistration as have said they intend to run again
My 2PP estimate 57-43 to Labor. Previous poll which came out at over 61 was an outlier.
* polls may still include them in spite of deregistration as have said they intend to run again
Report on #ResolvePM republic polling here which has 54-46 against at this rather meaningless time for polling the issue. However the question published appears to be the follow-up for initially undecided voters; what was the primary question?
theage.com.au/politics/feder…
theage.com.au/politics/feder…
In the previous Resolve republic poll the primary question was "Are you personally in favour or against Australia becoming a republic independent of the UK?" (The problem with that question being that Australia already is independent of the UK.)
