Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #risk

Most recents (24)

🧵 Global catastrophic and existential risks: the weightiest complex phenomena?

"Our job is to think about how humanity can have a happy ending...about how GOOD it can be."

- @anderssandberg of @FHIOxford speaking at SFI today:


#AIEthics #Biosecurity
"The idea that humanity actually *could* go extinct required a lot of ideas to come together. First you needed to know that species go extinct. This wasn't clear until [the discovery of fossil Mastodons]."
- @anderssandberg of @FHIOxford at SFI today:

"It's not just that the end of the world could be caused by a bad political decision. In principle, the *right* political decision or technology could *avert* these risks. In the 19th C, it was a considered merely a matter of natural causes."
- @anderssandberg (@FHIOxford) at SFI
Read 14 tweets
Did the #Irish Central Bank provide sovereign guarantees to buyers of Irish Bank Bonds and other contractual debt liabilities classified as fixed income securities, before the #GFC struck?
I asked this question after watching Professor Kelly on YouTube.
He was describing how the #Irish Central Bank allowed banks to import capital in large sums, and later lend it out to housing finance borrowers.
That created a severe #ALM Mismatch, as homes are not liquid assets.
Only after the #GFC, did the Irish and other banks realize that a run on the #deposits could lead to financial #insolvency.
#Ruin #Risk by definition is the gap between Unexpected #Loss and Expected Loss.
As the gap increases, the chances of financial ruin and #default rises too!
Read 7 tweets
What should I know about risk management for a job interview with an asset management and securities brokerage firm?
@IOSCOWIW @efc_global @MarketIntegrity @GARP_Risk
You need to know everything about Capital Markets at least.

Investment Banking and Asset Management Sector /brokerage require an exceptional understanding of debt and equity market instruments and asset classes.
Sound knowledge of derivative markets will add to your CV.
Read 15 tweets
What are recent topics for PhD in management or other affiliated subjects?
@LSEPhD
Many!

The latest topics of interest are =>
1.#Behavioural models of #Marketing using experimental economics

2.Role of #Data #Sciences in modelling time-motion studies to measure human efficiency and output on the shop floor.
3.#Reliability Management Process Improvement Controls used in the Value-Added Industries
(Industrial/#engineering management).
Read 7 tweets
Why do strong Earthquakes take place in Haiti? Does it have something to do with Plate Tectonics?
What are the factors that put Haiti at risk?
Learn more in this thread on today’s #GeoAgenda with our collab w/@Daniela_A_Gallo ! 1/n
A magnitude 7.2 (M 7.2) #earthquake struck #Haiti on August 14- west of the capital city, #PortAuPrince, and 50km west of the magnitude 7.0 devastating EQ that took place in 2010 which killed ~100,000 people and devastated the Island. 2/n
Both EQ;s were produced in the #EnriquilloPlantain fault zone, a complex boundary between two #tectonicplates. To the north there is another tectonic boundary, and this makes the Hispaniola island to be sandwiched in between a complex geological terrain 3/n
Read 10 tweets
The Psychology of Human Misjudgement - Charlie Munger Full Speech via @YouTube
well, if one can get around the accounting and auditing systems, you can commit fraud on a massive scale.
That is what rogue traders do!
But, financial institutions have invested big time in hiring quants who can write codes and Greek symbols which board members don't comprehend
It's brilliant if your standard fraud risk assessor aka auditor and the quantitative risk manager can use the #Benford #Law to identify, proactively measure and control fraud risk-related predicate financial crimes.
But, first, do the basic work, before leapfrogging.
Read 22 tweets
Inflation data for July moderated somewhat, at least relative to the heady pace of recent months, which should temper #market and policymaker concerns a bit, despite the fact that #inflation will stay sticky-higher for a while and the #risk remains to the high-side.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.3% month-over-month and 4.3% year-over-year, a bit less than the consensus forecast, and headline CPI data printed at a solid 0.5% month-over-month and came in at 5.4% year-over-year.
While we think that it’s hard to see a case for the recent levels of elevated #inflation turning into “1970s style” runaway price increases, higher #wages and elevated growth for an extended period will allow companies to achieve higher levels of #PricingPower for a time.
Read 7 tweets
1/ (Why) does it make sense to become a liquidity provider in #DeFi markets? Our partner @lab_blockchain had a look at LPing $ETH / #stablecoin pairs in @Uniswap v2. Here, we focus on three major ones: $ETH / $USDC, $ETH / $USDT and $ETH / $DAI. Image
2/ Close enough… All of the three #stablecoins hold their peg to the dollar quite well. So historically, it wouldn’t really have mattered which one you held onto. Image
3/ If you own some $ETH and #stablecoins, the safest choice is to just #HODL. In our period under consideration, you’d have made 202% if you just held on to a portfolio of 50% ETH and 50% stables. Starting with $10k, that’s $30.2k. Image
Read 14 tweets
It is very important in this period of humanity to take a serious look at what is happening in the world friends.

Watch this video first in its entirety & reflect upon current situations critically.

🙏

odysee.com/@AfterSkool:7/…
#Menticide is here & with it, a new attempt to establish a "#TechnoTotalitarian" rule over the lives of American citizens.

The final variant of #Coronavirus could very well be the manifestation of a #NewWorldOrder under #totalitarian rule.
That may sound absurd, but what is very concerning is that many talking heads in the media & even public figures are now making very carefully worded emotional appeals to logic to further induce a totalitarian #masspsychosis.
Read 53 tweets
A short and brief thread on life insurance and it's market leader in india, #hdfclife
#insurance
#life
#invest
#investments
#investor
#investors .

Was getting a lot of request to cover this sector.(1/n)
Life insurance is a legally binding contract.
For the contract to be enforceable, the life insurance application must accurately disclose the insured’s past and current health conditions and high-risk activities.
#insurance
#lifeinsurance
#hdfclife (2/n)
For a life insurance policy to remain in force, the policyholder must pay a single premium up front or pay regular premiums over time.
When the insured dies, the policy’s named beneficiaries will receive the policy’s face value, or death benefit.
#lifeinsurance
#hdfclife (3/n)
Read 11 tweets
Interviewed a fully qualified #actuary from the @SOActuaries professional body, who really impressed me!
It goes on to show that not all mathematically inspiring and charismatic blokes are dull at understanding the subtle qualitative aspects of business #risk and transactions.
Actually, I do offer my services as a recruiter aka professional headhunter and knowledge capital developer, in addition to teaching Talent Management at staff colleges across financial institutions
I often get twirled when I have to choose between Financial Engineers & Actuaries
Mostly, for Front Office Risk Management roles, Financial Engineers, Financial Mathematicians, and Quantitative Economics or Finance Risk, etc candidates get preference
For Middle Office and other Risk Sub-Silos Roles, Actuaries compete with other Quants coming from hard sciences
Read 14 tweets
I have even met some foolhardy alternative investment aka asset managers that use the BSOP Black Scholes Option Pricing Model Calculator to price oil exploration, drilling and other natural resource mining risks.
BS Option Pricing Model like its cousin the CAP-M is widely misused
Neither BSOP nor CAP-M were invented to price the risks of tangible engineering projects and other physical activities of commercial nature such as mining, drilling, real estate ventures, REITs, Securitized Toxic Assets, Embedded Bonds, etc.
Model Abuse leads to Modelling Risk!
Although the #BSOP Model has paved the way forward in the domains of Quantitative Finance, Investment Portfolio Management, and Mathematical Trading, like no other academic invention,, it's abuse and misuse, was never controlled.
#LTCM is a case study and an e.g. of that failure!
Read 5 tweets
Great conversation with @MerrillLynch CIO Chris Hyzy, as part of their #MerrillPerspectives event. Some of the topics we discuss follow and the full conversation can be accessed here: ml.com/2021-midyear-e…
On the #market lessons stemming from the pandemic, I suggested that- stepping back- while a lot has been thrown at the #economy and markets over the past 30 years, in every case the #policy response has been critical to evaluate in judging the ultimate impact: policy matters!
That said, we think there is an overestimation of the importance of exceedingly low #policy rate levels to the recovery but maintaining the stability and #liquidity of the financing #markets is critical, particularly at the top end of the capital stack.
Read 10 tweets
Thread 🧵
1/ We already know that nature is relentless. But it is also true that #technology can help to alleviate the most serious consequences of its onslaught
2/ That's why we don't quite agree when this @dwnews article argues that early warning systems are not valid for some phenomena such as #flashfloods dw.com/en/opinion-ger…
3/ Satellite observations such as those of @CopernicusEMS provide invaluable information, but at Arantec we believe that #earlywarningsystems gain in efficiency when the most problematic rivers are also monitored in real time
Read 9 tweets
Fahrettin Koca;

ALLAH Senin BELANI VERSIN..#Meymenetsiz

#ASI'larin GERCEK icerigi aciklandiginda
veya
ortaya ciktiginda
bu millet seni Tükürükle bogmaz mi?

KATiL @drfahrettinkoca
ASI'larin icerigini ACIKLA!?

#GrafenOkside #5G #Starlink
2-
#Maske'lerle
#PCR test cubuklariyla
#mRNA #ASI'lariyla
ve dahasi
ugursuz #BAYKUS misali hergün
Korku-Umudsuzluk tohumlari ekerek,

Kadin-Erkek
Genc-Yasli
Cocuk-ergen herkesin sagligini
ciddi anlamda #Risk'e atan
Fahrettin'in
ALLAH bir kez daha belasini versin,diyoruz..
3-
Bizim daha önceki paylasimlarda
#Maske'lerdeki #Parazit'ler dedigimiz sey,
megerse #Grafen #Partiküller'mis.

Canli olmasi,hareket etmesi
parazit sanilmasi bundan

Kanada saglik dairesi
bu sebeple
#Maske'lerin üretimini-satisini-kullanimini durdurma cagrisi yapmis
Read 35 tweets
What quantitative aptitude do Finance and Risk Management require?
@actuarynews @CQFInstitute @GARP_Risk
Mathematics is the Queen of all Natural Sciences.

However, its applications in Social Sciences and its sub-fields such as Economics and Business Studies is growing all the time.

Finance and Risk are broadly categorized as subfields of Microeconomics.
That's my opinion.
The two subjects (Risk and Finance, which I would like to jointly refer to as Risk Finance) share a lot in common with the Pricing Theory, Utility Theory, Portfolio Theory, Risk Pooling, Risk Financing and Risk Sharing Theories, the Moral Hazard Problem,
Read 17 tweets
Every Concept has a Form, as expounded by #Plato.
But, it does not mean, that a complex concept cannot have simple explainable forms?
It can!
All Computational Algorithms that train various Mathematical or Statistical Models are a representation of some theory, which originated as a concept using logical methods of enquiry, having empirical or rational forms.
Model #Parsimony could be best understood in the light of #Occam's Razor.
Read 7 tweets
Top-Down Vs. Bottom-Up Style of Investment Analysis: Risk Versus Research Desk Perspectives
@GARP_Risk @CFAinstitute @CQFInstitute
In the field of Investment Risk and Research Analyses, the research/risk analyst has to make a choice between two asset selection and/or allocation approaches.
The first approach is referred to as the “Top-Down Analysis” and the second is its opposite, the “Bottom-Up Analysis”.
Read 62 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 06/26/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/06/26/dai…
Student loans, the racial wealth divide, and why we need full student debt cancellation

brookings.edu/research/stude…

#StudentLoans #DebtCancellation #RacialInequality #WealthDivide
The Delta Variant Is a Grave Danger to the Unvaccinated

newyorker.com/science/medica…

#delta #variant #COVID19 #VaccinationRate #consequences #risk
Read 10 tweets
Buy Vs. Sell-Side Risk Information: Time to Differentiate between “Your Risk” and “My Risk” Reports
@CFAinstitute @GARP_Risk
Report Sample of Asset Allocation Analytics
Well, we all are accustomed to reading “Buy” and “Sell-Side” Investment Evaluation Reports prepared by Financial Research Analysts at various FIs such as Investment Companies operating in the Financial Markets.
Read 50 tweets
It would be wise for any businesses considering @UpGuard as a vendor to cease doing so. I don’t know exactly what is happening over there, but something has gone very wrong recently. The whole environment does not pass the smell test.
Also worth noting- @UpGuard’s in house counsel is insulting me by offering a “separation agreement” of two months pay if I agree to not sue or talk about what is going on over there.

UpGuard recently took $500,000 from US govt PPP covid recovery funds. I feel very insulted.
Read 7 tweets
Lots of people asking me to provide a summary of yesterdays Wigglesworth Memorial Lecture. In the lecture I discussed 10 lessons that I have learned about Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) through 20 years of applied #humanfactors research. Here they are!
Lesson 1. A human error lens is useless and can be dangerous. I talked here about how using the term in OHS can be misleading and prevent learning. Errors are a consequence of systemic issues, not a cause of anything!
Lesson 2. All accidents/safety compromising incidents are caused by multiple interacting contributory factors. There is no such thing as a root cause
Read 12 tweets

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