Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #russianeconomy

Most recents (6)

1/ yep! i've read it could even goes down as much as 8% so it seems "reasonable" to me. Also Natalia's analysis has been made with only verified datas/giures/trends and legit forecast.
so... sounds good to me.
#RussianEconomy
3/ everybody should start to really implement the sanctions now...
hello #Greece !
Read 13 tweets
1⃣
#GuerreEnUkraine D+321 (10/01) ECONOMIE RUSSE
#sanctions
#RussianEconomy

Où en est l'économie russe en ce début d'année ?
Dans quelle mesure, les objectifs des sanctions ont-ils été (ou non) atteints ?
2⃣
---------- SOMMAIRE ----------

0. Episodes précédents
1. La crise budgétaire s'aggrave
2. Le talon d'Achille russe
3. Les sanctions accroissent le coût de la guerre mais ne l'arrêtent pas
3⃣

0. Episodes précédents

Dans mes fils précédents👇, j'ai démontré que
(i) la #Russie avait évité une crise financière grâce à l'action résolue de sa banque centrale et à ses réserves mais que cela n'allait pas durer...
Read 19 tweets
#GuerreEnUkraine D+281 (01/12) ECONOMIE RUSSE #RussianEconomy

Quelle est la situation économique et financière de la #Russie ?
Quel est l'impact des #sanctions occidentales sur l'économie russe ?
Les sanctions ont 2 volets :
-financier : saisie des réserves afin de déclencher une crise financière
-économique : interdiction d'exporter des technologies sensibles et intrants clés pour la production russe, en particulier d'armes, pour provoquer une crise économique
----- SANCTIONS FINANCIERES SANS CRISE FINANCIERE -----

A. Contrairement au narratif occidental, les sanctions financières n'ont pas provoqué de crise financière,
B. car la Russie a mis en oeuvre une politique proactive.
C. Mais elle ne peut compter la reproduire dans le futur.
Read 21 tweets
@jayohardeeayen sent me to this interesting thread on the impact of #sanctions on the #RussianEconomy. It’s a well thought out and grounded analysis, so no hate even as I nit pick. @IlyaMatveev_ talks trade, currency reserves, globalization, and downstream impact on Russians.
This is a vital observation: Russia relies on imports across a wide range of goods. Much of the Soviet industrial base (back when the economy was closer to autarky) was liquidated in the 90s, and now Russia is an energy/commodities exporter and an importer of everything else.
Here’s data from oec.world breaking down Russian trade by category. First, look at values: giant trade surplus. But also look at the composition - exports are overwhelmingly energy/metals and imports are machinery/electronics/everything else.
Read 19 tweets
RUSSIA'S EXPANSION
1. While most analysts see primarily a crime, I see primarily an error in Putin’s recognition of the two Russia-created East Ukrainian pseudo-states. This and the entry of regular Russian troops into the occupied territory are doubtlessly criminal & worrisome.
2. Yet, the East Ukrainian reality on the ground has so far not changed much with this "illegal legal" act and additional military presence. Instead, the larger political constellation of the conflict is arguably shifting to #Russia's disadvantage.
3. First, the always dubious and #Kremlin-imposed #MinskAgreements will not any longer be available as instruments of #Russian political pressure on #Ukraine. Second, the #West will now close ranks with Ukraine in view of #Russia's new blatant violation of #InternationalLaw.
Read 7 tweets
My five kopecks on the current "correlation of forces" here in #Ukraine, building on @jhzachau's and my rough scenarios outline for the @SCEEUS_UI @UISweden below:
1. It is now increasingly likely that some kind of #Russian escalation will happen.
ui.se/forskning/cent…
2. This could, for instance, aim to bring the borders of the so-called "people's republics" in the #Donbas in line with their "constitutions" which claim that the entire #Donetsk and #Luhansk #oblasts belong to these pseudo-states.
3. Intensified shelling by the “republics” of government-controlled locations as well as an array of non-kinetic attacks on #Ukraine have already begun. kyivindependent.com/national/over-…
Read 10 tweets

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