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Thought of the day:
We are often wrong....15% for cycle bottoms, but right 85% of the time. Often 50% initial draw downs bag 10x, as the sitting proves out in our favour. We can't be right unless we are wrong in the very short term.
We are often wrong....15% for cycle bottoms, but right 85% of the time. Often 50% initial draw downs bag 10x, as the sitting proves out in our favour. We can't be right unless we are wrong in the very short term.
Theme and Position sizing is key...
Each new asymmetric theme has a 5-7% weighting
Each position within the theme has a 1-2% weighting
Most themes produce 8-13x returns on average
Each new asymmetric theme has a 5-7% weighting
Each position within the theme has a 1-2% weighting
Most themes produce 8-13x returns on average
If we are extremely compelled, which is very irregular, but is aligned with putting the buckets out, we will go to 20% in a theme and up to 5% in a position.
This would be for a repeatable asymmetric theme we have been successful in multiple times in the last 40 years.
This would be for a repeatable asymmetric theme we have been successful in multiple times in the last 40 years.
$SBER up 19x if depositary receipts were purchased <50c and converted plus incoming 200% dividend yield. A little outperformance over 12 months Vs peers group in Europe & US. Another successful #asymmetric theme in play.
Who would have thought the globally best investment theme over the last 12 months would be #Russianstocks (purchased in crashed DRs) that 83% of the world pop didn't sanction?
Note the buy valuations (using 3yr trailing pre-war averages):
Dividend yields > 100%
PE < 0.7x
Note the buy valuations (using 3yr trailing pre-war averages):
Dividend yields > 100%
PE < 0.7x
Entry on these sorts of multiples with future growth applied has always provided 10-20x returns over 5 years on cycle bottom deployment for a theme.
