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Learned so much last week at the Real World Risk Institute in NYC from Nassim Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and all of the #RWRI13 crew, thought it was fitting to use my first twitter post to share some of my favorite takeaways…
Averages are almost always deceptive – would you cross a river that is on average 4’ deep – how do we plan for future failures? (Lucretius Problem: worst case that has happened is not the worst case that can/will happen in the future)
“Central correlation is rarely true correlation.” and “random doesn’t actually look random” – What’s the correlation of 18 random numbers to 18 other random numbers – try it – makes you think twice about drawing conclusions from correlation
