Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #scenarios
Most recents (19)
#Scenarios: "we present a model that extrapolates observed growth in #millionaire numbers (1990–2020) and associated changes in #emissions to 2050. Our findings suggest that the share of US$2020-millionaires in the world population will grow ...
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
... from 0.7% today to 3.3% in 2050, and cause accumulated emissions of 286 Gt CO2. This is equivalent to 72% of the remaining carbon budget, and significantly reduces the chance of stabilizing climate change at 1.5 °C."
#CarbonInequality #inequality
#CarbonInequality #inequality
"most recent assessment indicates changes in distribution, with the top 1% now being responsible for 17% of total #emissions, the top 10% for 48%, and the bottom half of the world population for only 12% (in 2019). These numbers illustrate the role of the #wealthy in ...
Since people are in scenario planning mode, right now, a few tips. A 🧵 #planning #scenarios
Please don't present a base case and two strawman (or strawperson) proposals. A strawman, often misused in my experience, is a rhetorical fallacy, i.e., creating a proposal that no one would reasonably vote for, and then encouraging votes against it. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
For example, most companies create 3 scnearios: base, silly1 and silly2. Then they spend the meeting arguing why silly1 and silly2 are bad, which isn't hard, and thus we have only one good choice, the base case. All in favor, aye!
ZBF release finally draws closer (zero2050usa.com). We have been working to get the data/report out & understandable. Here is a short thread with some interesting observations that we made. First, here is a cheat sheet for our scenarios (a wide spread of possibilities) 
First, we find that scenarios have huge amounts of #wind & #solar. We also find that deployment rates for these (& #storage) must dramatically increase to reach our goals (with and without novel generation).
This becomes increasingly important for limited technology cases & huge for #storage in terms of energy capacity.
Une trajectoire 100 % #EnR permettrait de diviser par deux la consommation de #gaz de notre #mix #électrique
Dans les #scénarios #RTE : le gaz décarboné ne répond qu’à 2 à 3 % de la demande électrique totale
👇THREAD👇
Dans les #scénarios #RTE : le gaz décarboné ne répond qu’à 2 à 3 % de la demande électrique totale
👇THREAD👇
C’est quelque chose que l’on entend souvent à propos des énergies renouvelables électriques (EnR), celles-ci ont besoin d’un back-up constitué de centrales à gaz pour faire face aux périodes sans vent ni soleil.
Les EnR auraient ainsi ceci de paradoxal : bien que déployées pour lutter contre le réchauffement climatique, elles renforceraient notre dépendance au gaz fossile.
1. As the picture is slowly becoming clearer, I have now decided to write a longer thread about what is happening in my country. It is based on conversations with my family in #Almaty, existing (incomplete information) in various media from #Kazakhstan and people I trust.
2. It is important to understand that there are two processes going on in Kazakhstan: social protests of the people who are fed up with the existing injustice, inequality, corruption and kleptocracy and at the same time a power struggle between the two clans:
3. Clan of ex-President Nursultan #Nazarbayev , who ruled the country for 30 years, and current President #Tokayev, who took over the presidency in 2019, but political power has nevertheless remained with Nazarbayev and his clan
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 09/14/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/09/14/dai…
Scientists scramble to harvest ice cores as glaciers melt
reuters.com/lifestyle/scie…
#IceCores #GlacierMelt #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming
reuters.com/lifestyle/scie…
#IceCores #GlacierMelt #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming
Beware the ‘multi-demic:’ Masking this fall will fight more than COVID-19
fastcompany.com/90674460/twind…
#masking #COVID19 #flu #PublicHealth
fastcompany.com/90674460/twind…
#masking #COVID19 #flu #PublicHealth
If you are at #RSS2021Conf this morning, check out our invited session on Contagious disease #statistics and #misinterpretation of #COVID dynamics and data with @AdamJKucharski and @AyisSalma
11:40am, Exchange 10
11:40am, Exchange 10
First speaker is @AyisSalma, reflecting on the subtle but important difference of what we think and what data are.
#COVID19 statistics are easily misinterpreted
#COVID19 statistics are easily misinterpreted
Statistical anomalies in calculations of #COVID19 infections and deaths meant it appeared that no-one ever recovered!
And these figures influenced government #publichealth decisions
And these figures influenced government #publichealth decisions
1/210: Markus Kerber's Apollo 13
In March 2020, the German Ministry of the Interior @BMI_Bund issued a #strategypaper that weaponized fear in order to accomplish compliance with #COVID policies. The authors' emails were litigated under #FOIA request. My analysis. #MEGATHREAD ⬇️
In March 2020, the German Ministry of the Interior @BMI_Bund issued a #strategypaper that weaponized fear in order to accomplish compliance with #COVID policies. The authors' emails were litigated under #FOIA request. My analysis. #MEGATHREAD ⬇️
2/210: The @BMI_Bund emails have been released to the public as they were successfully sued by lawyer Niko Härting in a FOIA proceeding. They can be requested directly from @BMI_Bund/ @rki_de via @fragdenstaat. Download it here: bit.ly/3knoa6Y bit.ly/3Bd0rgj
3/210: The emails originated March 19-25, 2020. They are so explosive because they map the inner discourse of the @BMI_Bund's now infamous #COVID-19 taskforce, which produced several crucial domestic policy documents. bit.ly/2TT3R7O @OttoKolbl
It's been a busy few days/weeks/months modelling steps 2, 3 and 4 of the #roadmap out of lockdown in England, with my #ateam @_nickdavies @markjit and John Edmunds. A 🧵 on our latest work looking at #step4 🪜👩💻 and a #photodump of some nice things I saw along the way
We project the dynamics of #SARSCoV2 transmission in England using an #agestructured #transmission #model which divides the population into vaccine states and disease states. The model has compartments for three #COVID19 variants (OG, #alpha and #delta) and 2 two-dose vaccines 💉
To capture changes in behaviour (➡️ the amount people mix in the model), we use historic #mobilitydata and make assumptions about what might happen to mobility when policies are implemented, e.g. #step4 🍀 We make low, medium and high assumptions to account for uncertainty... ⭐️
Heads-up for NL media waarvoor terrorisme en terrorismebestrijding geen issue meer lijken te zijn want #COVID_19 is het nieuwe gevaar dat er bij de bevolking ingeramd moet worden. #journaal #nieuwsuur #1V #Op1 #bbvpro #NPORadio1
#niet_in_journaal #nieuwsuur #1V #Op1 #bbvpro #NPOradio1 #Afghanistan #Taliban #talks reuters.com/article/us-pak…
Voor het geval u zich afvraagt hoe het in die oorlogen is afgelopen omdat het #journaal er niets meer over rapporteert #niet_in_journaal #nieuwsuur #1V #Op1 #bbvpro #NPORadio1 #ACLED #political_violence #terrorism #statististics acleddata.com/2020/08/18/mid…
1/Today, we launch a new project: defining & analysing a series of global & country-level #ParisAgreement-compatible #decarbonisation benchmarks, across four major sectors: #Power, #Transport, #Industry, #Buildings, each w benchmarks for several indicators bit.ly/CAT_PSR1
2/ We've derived 2030 & 2050 sectoral benchmarks for seven countries: #Brazil, #China, #EU, #India, #Indonesia, #SouthAfrica, the #US, taking into account each country's technical, infrastructure & economic circumstances #decarbonisation. Summary report: bit.ly/CAT_PSRsum
3/ Our benchmarks are at a level of “highest plausible ambition" - technically, economically feasible, consider existing infrastructure, ensure they push the boundaries on all levels, & increase our chances of meeting the #ParisAgreement #1o5C limit bit.ly/CAT_PSRsum
#niet_in_journaal #nieuwsuur #1V #Op1 #bbvpro #NPORadio1 #surveillance Der Staat schaut zu: In diesen Städten stehen die meisten Überwachungskameras faz.net/-ikh-a1s9k?GEP… #fplus via @faznet
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 6/14/2020-2
greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/06/14/dai…
Americapox: The Missing Plague - YouTube
#America #Europe #epidemic
greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/06/14/dai…
Americapox: The Missing Plague - YouTube
#America #Europe #epidemic
Mutation Allows Coronavirus to Infect More Cells, Study Finds. Scientists Urge Caution. - The New York Times
nytimes.com/2020/06/12/sci…
#mutation #coronavirus
nytimes.com/2020/06/12/sci…
#mutation #coronavirus
The American Press Is Destroying Itself - Reporting by Matt Taibbi
taibbi.substack.com/p/the-news-med…
#press #decline
taibbi.substack.com/p/the-news-med…
#press #decline
A key purpose of futures practice is to invest thought in possible contingencies, so that when something unexpected suddenly happens you are better prepared.
COVID-19 is a vivid illustration of both the importance and the limits of foresight. Let me tell you a story.
<thread>
COVID-19 is a vivid illustration of both the importance and the limits of foresight. Let me tell you a story.
<thread>
This story is about how the first serious game funded by the CDC came about –– a near-future pandemic simulation, back in 2009 –– and how it was overtaken by real events. And what we learned from that. /2
In 2007, my colleague @dunagan23 (now at @iftf) and I were both grads in the futures program at the Uni of Hawaii at Manoa. We had already designed and run immersive scenarios (set in the year 2050) to engage lawmakers and public in the state’s sustainability planning process. /3
@annbadillo @jonhusband @petervan @CorporateRebels @mbauwens @AreoMagazine @tiffanyshlain @csageland @johnhopebryant @rushkoff @JeffSharlet @netflix @OBEYGIANT @brainpicker @nytimes @Maperez324 @MatthewPelkey @ElectionEdge @johnchavens @Mumbrellanews @faris @NewYorker @AndrewYang @IdeaGov @NetizenFour @TheEconomist @maverickwoman @WIRED @nxthompson @MikeNelson @CraigSilverman For those who question the power of social for impact have to learn more from @sofiargross of @Snapchat !
Snapchat message helped more than 63,000 people register to VOTE mol.im/a/7760329 via
@MailOnline #platformeconomy #networkeffects
c @2ndAveLearning @Toryvanv
Snapchat message helped more than 63,000 people register to VOTE mol.im/a/7760329 via
@MailOnline #platformeconomy #networkeffects
c @2ndAveLearning @Toryvanv
@annbadillo @jonhusband @petervan @CorporateRebels @mbauwens @AreoMagazine @tiffanyshlain @csageland @johnhopebryant @rushkoff @JeffSharlet @netflix @OBEYGIANT @brainpicker @nytimes @Maperez324 @MatthewPelkey @ElectionEdge @johnchavens @Mumbrellanews @faris @NewYorker @AndrewYang @IdeaGov @NetizenFour @TheEconomist @maverickwoman @WIRED @nxthompson @MikeNelson @CraigSilverman @sofiargross @Snapchat @MailOnline @2ndAveLearning @Toryvanv A @sciam article about Jennifer Gunter led to a massive Twitter fight.slate.com/technology/201… HT @IEthics #networkeffects #socialmedia #scenarios
@annbadillo @jonhusband @petervan @CorporateRebels @mbauwens @AreoMagazine @tiffanyshlain @csageland @johnhopebryant @rushkoff @JeffSharlet @netflix @OBEYGIANT @brainpicker @nytimes @Maperez324 @MatthewPelkey @ElectionEdge @johnchavens @Mumbrellanews @faris @NewYorker @AndrewYang @IdeaGov @NetizenFour @TheEconomist @maverickwoman @WIRED @nxthompson @MikeNelson @CraigSilverman @sofiargross @Snapchat @MailOnline @2ndAveLearning @Toryvanv @sciam @IEthics aka: the power of restraint
The Power of Not Retweeting by @rushkoff link.medium.com/uKmyraHP42 #networkeffects #a3r
The Power of Not Retweeting by @rushkoff link.medium.com/uKmyraHP42 #networkeffects #a3r
I'm only halfway through Bertrand Meyer's 2014 book, "Agile! The Good, the Hype and the Ugly", but it's already proven its worth as a lucid, unrestrained appraisal of #Agile principles and methodologies. Here are a few passages that resonated with me...
"#XP's insistence that [pair programming] should be the absolute rule [...] makes little sense conceptually, as it neglects the role of programmer personality (some excellent developers like to concentrate alone and will resent having to be paired) [...]"
"Starting any significant software project (anything beyond a couple of months and a couple of developers) without taking the time to write some basic document defining core requirements is professional malpractice."
